Draymond Green has been an important cog in the Warriors' dynasty. The power forward has been a starter for three of the Golden State's championships, and his presence has helped guide the team to a sixth NBA Finals appearance in his career.
But the 2022 NBA Finals against the Celtics has not gone well for Green. Though his 5.8 assists per game in the finals lead the team, he is averaging just 4.3 points per game, 7.3 rebounds and has posted a negative-seven plus-minus in the first four games.
It is not easy to bench a player of his caliber to start the game — or in the critical moments of a game like what happened in Game 4 — but with the series coming down to the final three games, coach Steve Kerr might need to consider whether to change his strategy with Green as his team seeks for an edge against Boston.
MORE: How the Celtics are picking on Green's weaknesses
Why should Green come off the bench, and who should the Warriors start instead? The Sporting News takes a look at the numbers.
Why the Warriors should bring Draymond Green off the bench
When the Warriors decided to pull Green late in Game 4 against the Celtics, they opted for a smaller lineup of Stephen Curry, Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. In just 4.3 minutes, that lineup outscored the Celtics by 10 points, according to Stathead.
That starting five has been used in 13.7 minutes during the NBA Finals, and would be on pace to outscore the Celtics by 29.5 points per 48 minutes. It is the fourth-most commonly used lineup by the Warriors and has the best scoring rate of any lineup that has seen the court for at least five minutes.
That doesn't mean that combination of players is the best option for a starting five, though it certainly has a strong case. More than anything, however, it speaks to how best to match up with the Celtics: a smaller, faster lineup.
Based on lineup data, there is plenty of evidence to show that Green's presence has been a hinderance in most cases. Here's a look at how lineups perform featuring different players with Green in and out.
Lineups that feature Thompson or Looney and not Green have seen scoring decrease. Outside of those two, however, every other regular player sees their lineups perform better in scoring when Green is on the bench.
There are certain pairings within lineups that work better than others. Of the players that have logged at least 40 minutes in the NBA Finals, here's each player's top qualifying (at least 10 minutes together) pairing with points scored:
| Player | Lineup pairing | Minutes | Net points per 48 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klay Thompson | Kevon Looney | 75.8 | 12.03 |
| Andrew Wiggins | Otto Porter Jr. | 50.7 | 8.52 |
| Stephen Curry | Kevon Looney | 82.4 | 19.22 |
| Draymond Green | Kevon Looney | 49.3 | 21.42 |
| Jordan Poole | Kevon Looney | 34.8 | 24.8 |
| Kevon Looney | Gary Payton II | 21.1 | 27.3 |
| Otto Porter Jr. | Kevon Looney | 22.4 | 23.57 |
| Gary Payton II | Kevon Looney | 21.1 | 27.3 |
Picking up on a trend? Looney is on each of the Warriors' top four lineups in terms of net points against the Celtics. There is not a player pairing that Looney has that is a net negative for the Warriors. By contrast, Green's only positive pairings are Curry, Looney and Wiggins.
Who else are the most consistent presences in those top lineups? Curry is in each one. Thompson is in two of them. Wiggins is in three of them. Poole is in two of them. Gary Payton II is in two of them. Otto Porter is in two of them.
The only lineup of Green's on the list is the No. 1 lineup, which has out-scored the Celtics by 22 points. However, that comes with the caveat of it being over 49.2 minutes, the most for any lineup, that comes out to a 48-minute pace of 21.5 net points. That lineup is Curry, Green, Looney, Thompson and Wiggins.
Of the lineups that have logged at least five minutes together in the finals, that five comes out to be the third-most productive based on net points per 48 minutes. The best is Curry, Looney, Poole, Thompson and Wiggins at 29.5 net points per 48 and second-best is Curry, Looney, Payton, Poole and Porter at 24.9 net points per 48.
If the Warriors are looking to find the best starting five, given how the lineups have played out so far, it might be the lineup Kerr turned to late in Game 4 against the Celtics. The numbers have shown that it has been the most dominant in the finals.
Based on box score plus-minus, from Stathead, some combination of Curry, Porter, Looney, Payton, Thompson and Wiggins would appear to be the best route for the Warriors to go.
| Player | Minutes | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 148 | 12 |
| Otto Porter Jr. | 75 | 9.4 |
| Kevon Looney | 91 | 6.7 |
| Gary Payton II | 46 | 4.5 |
| Moses Moody | 9 | 4.3 |
| Andre Iguodala | 14 | 3.2 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 24 | 0.1 |
| Klay Thompson | 149 | -0.7 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 149 | -1 |
| Jordan Poole | 93 | -2.4 |
| Draymond Green | 141 | -4 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 7 | -5.8 |
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | 7 | -7.9 |
| Damion Lee | 7 | -25.4 |
There are plenty of factors that will determine the best path for starting lineups, including chemistry. Green has joined the Splash Brothers for three NBA titles already, so naturally, the inclination is to leave him in the starting five and see how the rest of the series plays out.
But through the first four games, it is clear that the Warriors aren't as dynamic with Green on the court as they have been in the past.
