NBA All-Star 2022: Predicting who will win the 3-Point Contest

Scott Rafferty

NBA All-Star 2022: Predicting who will win the 3-Point Contest image

Back in 2019, our Micah Adams tried to predict who would win the 3-Point Contest during All-Star Saturday Night by looking at how each player in the competition fared from all five spots on the floor where the racks are placed.

He turned out to be wrong — sorry, Micah — but it sure was a fun exercise, so we're going to do it again.

This year's 3-Point Contest participants are CJ McCollum, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, Desmond Bane, Karl-Anthony Towns, Fred VanVleet, Luke Kennard and Patty Mills. That's four All-Stars in Young, LaVine, Towns and VanVleet, plus four of the league's sharpest shooters in McCollum, Bane, Kennard and Mills.

Will LaVine become the first player in NBA history to win the dunk and 3-Point contest in their career? Can Towns, who calls himself the "greatest big man shooter of all time," take one home for the 7-footers? Will a non-All-Star show the All-Stars how it's done?

Let's talk this one through one spot at a time.

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Left corner

Players either start here or end here.

Mills (23) leads the way in makes from the left corner to this point of the season, but LaVine (15) isn't far behind him and has been much, much more efficient, connecting on them at a — are you sitting down for this? — 57.7 percent clip.

LaVine put his money rack in the left corner last year. Based on how automatic he's been from that spot this season, don't be surprised if he does it again.

Player 3PT FG 3PT FG%
CJ McCollum 12-35 34.3
Trae Young 3-4 75.0
Zach LaVine 15-26 57.7
Desmond Bane 22-55 40.0
Karl-Anthony Towns 5-14 35.7
Fred VanVleet 17-34 50.0
Luke Kennard 7-16 43.8
Patty Mills 23-56 41.1

Left wing

This is pretty dang close with everyone but Towns and Young being in the same ballpark in terms of makes and only 6.0 percentage points separating the most efficient (Kennard) from the least efficient (Bane). 

In saying that, keep an eye on VanVleet (62), LaVine (50) and Mills (52). They've each made 50-plus 3s from the left wing this season at a similar rate. They seem to like this spot.

Player 3PT FG 3PT FG%
CJ McCollum 45-114 39.5
Trae Young 36-87 41.4
Zach LaVine 50-121 41.3
Desmond Bane 47-125 37.6
Karl-Anthony Towns 29-75 38.7
Fred VanVleet 62-159 39.0
Luke Kennard 48-110 43.6
Patty Mills 52-127 40.9
Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves)

Top of the arc

This has to be where Towns puts his money rack, right?

Not only is Towns (59) a shade behind Young (64) for the most makes from the top of the arc, but he's been the most efficient of the group. Only Bane can come close to him in that department.

This is where the big fella shines as a 3-point shooter.

Player 3PT FG 3PT FG%
CJ McCollum 20-57 35.1
Trae Young 64-178 36.0
Zach LaVine 29-90 32.2
Desmond Bane 36-76 47.4
Karl-Anthony Towns 59-122 48.4
Fred VanVleet 41-123 33.3
Luke Kennard 23-51 45.1
Patty Mills 29-79 36.7

Right wing

You think VanVleet was good from the left wing? He's even better from the right wing. 

Mills is also cash from this spot. I promise his shooting percentage isn't a typo.

Player 3PT FG 3PT FG%
CJ McCollum 41-99 41.4
Trae Young 52-133 39.1
Zach LaVine 27-76 35.5
Desmond Bane 45-102 44.1
Karl-Anthony Towns 14-44 31.8
Fred VanVleet 64-142 44.4
Luke Kennard 45-99 45.5
Patty Mills 58-116 50.0

Right corner

What the wings are to VanVleet, the corners are to LaVine.

Once again, LaVine is up there in makes and laps everyone in efficiency. Whether he puts his money rack in the left or right corner, look for him to start and finish strong.

Player 3PT FG 3PT FG%
CJ McCollum 10-23 43.5
Trae Young 3-9 33.3
Zach LaVine 14-25 56.0
Desmond Bane 12-28 42.9
Karl-Anthony Towns 3-14 21.4
Fred VanVleet 16-36 44.4
Luke Kennard 14-30 46.7
Patty Mills 24-65 36.9
VanVleet-FTR
[NBA Getty Images]

The pick: Fred VanVleet

I promise I'm not showing my NBA Canada bias here.

The argument for VanVleet is that he's been money from four of the five spots in the 3-point contest and oh, by the way, only Stephen Curry (4.6) is making more 3s than him (4.0) on a per-game basis this season.

To boot, VanVleet is one of the league's best standstill 3-point shooters. According to NBA.com, he's one of 275 players who have attempted at least 50 catch-and-shoot 3s this season. Want to guess how many have made them at a higher rate than VanVleet?

Four.

LaVine and Young are two of those players, but they haven't made nearly as many catch-and-shoot 3s as VanVleet. Volume matters. 

Don't sleep on Mills or Kennard, though. Mills has made the fourth-most 3s in the NBA this season while Kennard has been one of the most efficient. Kennard is also the only player in this season's 3-point contest shooting at least 40 percent from each location.

Scott Rafferty

Scott Rafferty Photo

 

Scott Rafferty is an experienced NBA journalist who first started writing for The Sporting News in 2017. There are few things he appreciates more than a Nikola Jokic no-look pass, Klay Thompson heat check or Giannis Antetokounmpo eurostep. He's a member of the NBA Global team.