The Nuggets will host the Celtics on Thursday's TNT broadcast at 10:00 p.m. ET. It has a chance to be the regular season game of the year.
Both teams are favored to win their respective conferences and could easily face off in the NBA Finals. As for who would win in that matchup, the Celtics would likely be favored, but the outcome would be anything but a sure thing.
These two teams met on Jan. 19 in Boston, with the Nuggets earning a 102-100 win in an electric finish. The rematch should shed some more light on who has the upper hand.
Here are four questions that will determine who wins the chess match between Boston and Denver.
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How do the Celtics guard Nikola Jokic?
Nobody has been able to stop Jokic's offensive production. The Celtics might be the best-equipped team in theory, though.
Jokic is simply too strong and skilled to slow down one-on-one. The Lakers have had the only strategy that could be considered even a mild success, and they were swept in the Conference Finals.
Los Angeles did at least avoid complete destruction during parts of that series by putting Rui Hachimura on Jokic towards the end of Game 1 and LeBron James later in the series, allowing Anthony Davis to play a roaming helper role. James had the best results, holding Joker to 4-of-12 shooting with five turnovers when he was the primary defender.
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The Celtics have that same type of personnel with Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis. They tried rolling out their double-big lineup against Jokic in their first matchup, and he shot 6-of-9 with two turnovers against it. While that doesn't sound great, it worked better than every other strategy they used. Jokic dropped 34 points on 14-of-22 shooting for the game, while also chipping in nine assists and 12 rebounds.
The Celtics started their last matchup against the Nuggets hoping that Porzingis could guard Jokic one-on-one. That was a complete tire fire — Jokic made Porzingis look silly multiple times, overpowering him and using terrific technique to get easy layups.
Boston pivoted to other strategies. It tried Horford as the primary defender, brought late double-teams in the post, sprinkled in some zone, and used both Porzingis and Horford as helpers in that double-big lineup.
Jokic picked all of those strategies apart. He did at least have to make tougher contested shots against that two big lineup and when the Celtics threw unexpected doubles at him. That strategy will likely increase in this next matchup.
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Can the other Nuggets do enough?
Jamal Murray was brilliant in this first matchup, scoring 35 points on some tough shot-making. The Celtics had no answers for the Murray-Jokic two-man game.
The rest of the Nuggets were mostly ineffective. Michael Porter Jr. had some early success shooting over Derrick White but disappeared later in the game. Aaron Gordon missed all six of his shots. Denver got only 13 points off its bench.
If the Celtics do double Jokic more and force other Nuggets to beat them, can they do it? Jokic made instant reads when those doubles came, but some of the wide-open role players weren't able to capitalize.
Boston also sagged off some of Denver's suspect shooters. It helped off Peyton Watson in the strong side corner, which is generally considered taboo because it concedes wide-open corner 3s. He wasn't able to punish that strategy. Gordon missed all of his 3s, airballing two of them from the left corner.
Can the Celtics put maximum pressure on Nikola Jokic's defense?
If the Celtics aren't able to slow down Jokic, their best bet may be to let him get his and make him work on defense.
Jokic is a much better defender than he looks — mostly due to his active hands and feel for where the ball is going to end up — but he does have trouble with his mobility. The Celtics have great personnel to exploit that weakness.
The Nuggets like to have Jokic hedge when he defends ball screens, playing him up high near the ball handler. That strategy is vulnerable to pick-and-pop threats, of which the Celtics have two in Porzingis and Horford.
Those two were constantly pick-and-popping, forcing Jokic into long closeouts that he wasn't able to make.
Horford and Porzingis shot a combined 5-of-10 from 3 in that first matchup. If they can keep that pressure on Jokic, that will make up a lot for the damage he inflicts on the other end.
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How do the Nuggets guard Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown?
Jokic provided extra help on those ball screens in part because of how dominant Tatum and Brown were inside the arc. They shot a combined 13-of-26 on 2s but lost the Celtics the game by combining for 2-of-17 from 3.
The Nuggets couldn't stay in front of Tatum when he put his mind into going downhill. He had some tremendous blow-bys, dunking it three times.
Gordon is one of the best defenders in the league, and he looked like he had cement on his feet when on an island on a key late possession.
Brown had his way inside the arc as well. He had success posting up Murray and driving right through him. That may be a matchup that the Celtics look to manipulate again.
The Celtics lost this first matchup because their offense was simply at a good level. They've been historically great for the rest of the year, and they will have to reach that top gear to beat the Nuggets.
Can the Nuggets' defense hold? That is ultimately what will determine the winner of this last regular season matchup.
