After the Lakers' win over the Warriors, the Western Conference Finals are set. They will take on the top-seeded Nuggets to see who will advance to the Finals.
As the seventh seed entering the playoffs, the Lakers will be underdogs. But LeBron James has already made the Finals 10 times. It would be dangerous to count him out.
Here are the key pieces of information to know going into the series.
MORE: Lakers vs. Nuggets Western Conference Finals preview
History of Nuggets vs. Lakers matchups
These teams notably met in the Western Conference Finals during the 2020 bubble. The Lakers took it down in five games en route to winning the title.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who played on that Lakers team and now starts for the Nuggets, has said in the past that if Anthony Davis had missed his game-winning 3-pointer in Game 2, he believes that the Lakers would have lost that series.
Both teams have turned over their rosters considerably, but the main pieces still remain. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the only remaining Lakers. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. are the only remaining Nuggets.
Fast-forwarding to this season, these teams faced off four times and won two games apiece. The home team won every game. Those games probably have less relevance than in most cases, given that none were played after the Lakers reshaped their roster post-trade deadline. The fourth game can be totally thrown out, as Anthony Davis and LeBron James were both missing in a Nuggets blowout win.
The key matchup: Nikola Jokic vs. Anthony Davis
Jokic has put together one of the best-ever runs throughout the first two rounds of this year's playoffs. He's the only player in NBA history to ever average at least 30.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 9.7 assists in the postseason.
Davis has been more up-and-down offensively, but his defense has been consistently among the best of any player in the playoffs.
During the regular season, neither player has been able to stop the other. Per the NBA's matchup data, Jokic is shooting 64 percent from the field with Davis guarding him.
Jokic has been very good in the post against Davis. He's used his strength advantage to back Davis down for easy layups. Davis has also had trouble staying with Jokic's flurry of shot fakes.
Meanwhile, Davis is shooting 62.5 percent with Jokic as his primary defender. Davis hasn't been able to power his way in the post as Jokic does, but he does have a speed advantage to get around Jokic. He's also had a lot of success driving at Jokic and finishing over him or use a soft floater to get it by him.
During the regular season, the Nuggets have been able to use Jokic's passing to pull Davis away from the basket and get easy layups. Jokic handoffs at the elbow have opened up driving lanes for guards to get to the rim. When Davis has sagged off on those actions, Jokic is such a great passer that it has created swing-swing passes for open 3's.
Lakers X-factor: D'Angelo Russell
In averaging 31 points and eight assists, Devin Booker showed the best way to beat the Nuggets' defense. They are susceptible to guards who can manipulate their aggressive defense with good passing reads and dynamic shooting.
Russell certainly isn't close to Booker's level, but he did shoot 40 percent from deep during the regular season. He is capable of making those passing reads when the Nuggets bring two to the ball. And he's played very well against them in the regular season, hitting 58 percent of his shots. He could swing some games with big offensive performances.
Nuggets X-factor: Michael Porter Jr.
Porter Jr. has been known as a poor defender throughout his career. He's starting to turn that narrative around, playing very well on that end against the Suns.
Porter is obviously on the floor though mostly for his microwave offense. If the Lakers can't guard Jokic one-on-one, then Porter is going to be getting a ton of open 3's off those doubles. He's canned 41 percent of those looks in the regular season. He could very easily hit five or six 3's in any of these games.
Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction
In order for the Lakers to win, they need LeBron and Davis to be among the top three players in the series.
Both are certainly capable of reaching that level. But they haven't done it consistently. Davis has had many games where he's disappeared on offense. LeBron does not look right physically. It's quite possible that his foot injury is still affecting his play, causing him to look very slow on defense and shoot poorly on offense.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets need to continue to defend at a high level. Their scheme, having Jokic pressure the ball on ball screens, requires near-perfect execution in order to work. They've been able to master the rotations behind Jokic, and they will need to continue to do that against a Lakers team that has some decent firepower.
Ultimately, I don't think that the Lakers will be able to slow down the Nuggets' offense enough to win. They were able to contain the Warriors' motion offense, but that was largely because of Davis' role as a helper. He won't be able to do that against Jokic, and that is going to put a ton of strain on everyone else on the roster.
My pick: Nuggets in six.
