Entering the season, Arkansas freshman Nick Smith Jr. had more NBA hype than perhaps any player in college basketball. In fact, back in SN's first 2023 NBA mock draft published ahead of the Champion's Classic, I had Smith as the first player off the board after the Big 2 of Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.
Unfortunately, a nagging knee injury prevented the explosive bucket-getter from getting into any rhythm all season. The former No. 1 ranked player in the high school class of 2023 was limited to just 12 regular season games due to right knee soreness.
However, Arkansas's run to the Sweet 16 highlighted by the upset of defending national champion and No. 1 seed Kansas thrusts Smith Jr. back into the national spotlight.
Even though Smith has largely struggled through two tournament games — he was held scoreless against Kansas while shooting 2-for-14 from the field and 0-for-4 from 3 over the first two tournament games — his talent remains undeniable.
For fans watching the Razorbacks for the first time this season, it might be confusing why Smith Jr. and fellow freshman Anthony Black are the two possible lottery picks. After all, junior guards Ricky Council IV and Davonte Davis have mostly led the charge, combining for 34 points in the win over Illinois and 46 points in the win over Kansas. But as things often work in college basketball, the most productive college players aren't always the best pro prospects.
MORE: Why isn't Gonzaga star Drew Timme a projected first-round pick?
What makes exactly makes Smith so intriguing to NBA scouts? Let's take a closer look.
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Nick Smith Jr. NBA Draft scouting report
Nick Smith Jr. strengths
Smith projects as a high-energy three-level scorer with an explosive burst and a smooth jumper.
For a player who heavily relies on his quickness and agility, it has been tough for Smith to make the impact that was expected of him coming into the season due to all of the missed time.
When healthy, he can beat just about anyone off the dribble, using his wiry frame to try and finish around defenders in the paint. He's willing to stop on a dime and pull up for a midrange jumper, he's confident in his floater and he's a solid 3-point shooter off the dribble or spotting up. Smith has elite breakaway speed, making him a threat in transition when he's running the lanes or pushing the pace to get easy buckets at the rim.
He has also improved his skills as a combo guard playing off of Black, putting himself in easier positions to score as an active cutter.
While we didn't see any of his strengths on display during the opening week of March Madness, there should still be faith that Smith is capable of doing those things at the NBA level once he returns to full strength.
MORE: Why NBA scouts see Arkansas's Anthony Black as a potential top-10 pick
Nick Smith Jr. weaknesses
In the opening week of March Madness, Smith showed his tendency to force offense when it's not there. It looks like he's pressing to live up to high expectations, isolating out of the flow of the offense, taking bad shots off the dribble or driving into traffic without a plan.
One of the biggest issues with Smith's game is that when isn't scoring, he isn't bringing much else to the table at this stage of his development. He scored six points on 10 shots against Illinois and failed to register a single rebound or assist. He only played 16 minutes against Kansas because his offense was non-existent and he wasn't making an impact in any other area of the game.
When he slows down and lets the game come to him, that's when you see the player who was once projected to be the first college player selected in the 2023 NBA Draft. But those moments have been few and far between during an injury-riddled freshman campaign.
Smith hasn't used the March Madness stage to help his draft stock yet, but he'll get another opportunity in the Sweet 16.
Nick Smith NBA projection and player comparison
Mock Draft projection: Lottery pick
NBA player comparison: Tyrese Maxey
Smith's speed and ability to score with or without the ball in his hands reminds me of Maxey. The 76ers guard was already a step ahead of Smith coming out of college in terms of impacting other areas of the game (like playmaking or defending) but the framework of their playing styles are similar.
