With the 2022-23 NBA regular season wrapping up next month, it's a perfect time to discuss the latest odds for the Rookie of the Year race, which is still being dominated by Magic forward Paolo Banchero ($1.01).
However, over the past four-to-six weeks, we've seen the hierarchy change behind Banchero. Thunder forward Jalen Williams and Jazz center Walker Kessler have leapfrogged Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers) and Jaden Ivey (Pistons) as notable sleepers that could hold some value this late in the regular season.
One of the main reasons why Williams and Kessler have taken massive leaps in the NBA Rookie of the Year award race is because their teams are competing for spots in the play-in tournament. The Thunder currently occupy the 10th spot in the West, while the Jazz are only 1.5 games behind OKC.
Below, we’ll break down the latest odds from TAB for Rookie of the Year and discuss if bettors should even bother wagering on Banchero or taking a chance on Williams or Kessler.
NBA Rookie of the Year 2023 odds
All odds courtesy of TAB
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | $1.01 |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | $13 |
| Walker Kessler | Jazz | $151 |
| Jaden Ivey | Pistons | $151 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | Pacers | $251 |
| Keegan Murray | Kings | $251 |
| Jabari Smith | Rockets | $501 |
NBA Rookie of the Year 2023 odds: Favourite
Paolo Banchero, Magic ($1.01). Banchero is the overwhelming favourite to win Rookie of the Year, which has been a consistent theme for most of the season. The 20-year-old power forward is recording 20.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. He's the leading scorer and rebounder for a Magic team that has been competitive and surpassed last season's win total (22).
He's continued to play well in March, averaging 20.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. Perhaps more notably, he's shooting 44.5 percent from the field and 37.0 percent from three-point range. It's been his best-shooting month from the floor all season.
However, at $1.01 odds, bettors should not place a wager on Banchero to win ROY because they would not get any value back in return. If a bettor were to place a $100 bet on TAB, the total payout would be $101. Bettors missed their opportunity over the summer and at the start of the season to get a plus-money bet on Banchero.
NBA Rookie of the Year 2023 Sleepers
Jalen Williams, Thunder ($13). When we last looked at the ROY odds in February, Williams was a long shot, however, the former Santa Clara standout has made a strong push for the award in the second half. Williams is averaging 19.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.7 steals per game since the All-Star break.
This is a vast improvement from the beginning of the regular season when the 21-year-old wing produced 12.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Williams is having an incredible month of March, fueling this late season for the league's Rookie of the Year award. He is averaging 19.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Williams has had two 30-point outings and eight games with 20 points or more. Nevertheless, he would need a ridiculous finish to the season to close the gap on Banchero, and with the Thunder fighting for a playoff spot, Williams could potentially garner a few more first-place votes.
Walker Kessler, Jazz ($151). Kessler doesn't have the gaudy offensive stats like Banchero and Williams, but he's been a monster on the defensive end for the Jazz. The former Auburn center is averaging 9.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game. That latter number ranks fourth in the league behind Nic Claxton (2.5), Brook Lopez (2.5), and Jaren Jackson Jr. (3.0).
The 21-year-old center is also averaging a double-double for the second consecutive month (13.8 points and 10 rebounds per game). Along with the double-double for this month, Kessler had eight games with three or more blocks, which shows his dominance inside the paint. If voters value defencse and playing for a "contending" team, Kessler could steal some first-place votes but likely not enough to really make a difference.
2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Advice
As previously mentioned, bettors are not getting any value on Banchero at his current odds, so the best bet would be Williams at $13. Bettors shouldn't go crazy, as there's a high likelihood that Banchero will still win the award because of his superior season-long stats and general offensive prowess.
However, we saw last year how a season-long front-runner (Evan Mobley) was eclipsed at the end of the season by a surging player on a playoff-bound team (Scottie Barnes), so it's possible that Williams' late-season momentum will excite some voters who have become "bored" with Banchero. Still, with little discussion surrounding the ROY award this season compared to last year, we'd be surprised if Williams can overcome Banchero's lead, but J-Dub is still an intriguing long-shot bet given the lack of value on betting on Banchero.
