The seventh-seeded Lakers will open up Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on the road against the sixth-seeded Warriors (12p.m. AEST). Los Angeles defeated the second-seeded Grizzlies in six games in the first round, while the Warriors crushed the Kings in Game 7 behind an incredible 50-point effort from Stephen Curry.
When these two teams played each other during the regular season, Los Angeles had the upper hand over the defending NBA champions, winning three out of four games. Golden State will hope that is not a sign of things to come, as their lone win against the purple and gold happened in the regular season opener, where they won 123-109. This is a vastly different Lakers team from then, with new faces and new roles who could give the Warriors a battle in this best-of-seven matchup.
The Warriors are the betting favorites ($1.65) to win this series and advance to the Western Conference Finals, but we know LeBron James and the Lakers would love to dethrone Golden State's hopes of trying to repeat as champions.
Can the Warriors take a 1-0 series lead over the Lakers, or will James and Los Angeles steal homecourt for the second-straight series? Below, we'll break down tonight's Lakers-Warriors matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Lakers vs. Warriors odds, picks, predictions
- Line: Lakers +4.5 ($1.90); Warriors -4.5 ($1.90)
- Over/Under: OVER 226.5 ($1.90); UNDER 226.5 ($1.90)
- Head to head: Lakers $2.55; Warriors $1.54
The Warriors enter tonight's contest as 4.5-point favorites over the Lakers, who were 20-21 on the road during the regular season.
As we previously mentioned, the Warriors are a much better team at home than they are away from the Chase Center. During the regular season, Golden State had a 33-8 home record, with one of those losses happening against the Lakers on Feb. 11.
Los Angeles defeated Golden State 109-103 as both James and Curry did not play. The Warriors had no answers for the Lakers, as D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt combined for 43 points. Los Angeles also saw Anthony Davis produce 13 points and 16 rebounds in the six-point win.
The Warriors will look to keep Davis in check, who had a solid first-round series against the Grizzlies, where he averaged 20.8 points and 13.7 rebounds per game. Kevon Looney's job will be to keep Davis off the glass as Golden State tries to limit Los Angeles' second-chance opportunities.
As for the Lakers, they played okay away from Crypto.com Arena during the regular season (20-21), but they only won one road game against the Grizzlies in the first round (Game 1, 128-112). Los Angeles lost Games 2 and 5 by double-digits. The Lakers need to play with the same urgency and efficiency tonight that they had in Game 1 against the Grizzlies, where they shot 53.3 percent from the field and 43.2 percent from three-point range.
In their four-game season series against the Warriors, the Lakers shot 45.1 percent from the field and 35.2 percent from beyond the arc, which was better than Golden State (41.2 FG% and 31.6% 3pt). Additionally, if the Lakers want to take Game 1, they will need an aggressive James. Against the Grizzlies in the first round, he averaged 22.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. The future Hall of Famer also shot 48.6 percent from the field and 19.5 percent from three-point range. While that was good enough to get past the Grizzlies, it won't be enough against the Warriors throughout a seven-game series.
Prediction: Warriors 113, Lakers 106. The Warriors (-4.5), with the game going UNDER the total (226.5)
Best bet for Lakers vs. Warriors: Jordan Poole UNDER 12.5 points ($1.90)
Poole struggled offensively in the Warriors' first-round series against the Kings. The 23-year-old averaged 12 points on 33.8 percent shooting from the field and 25.7 percent from three-point range.
If Golden State wants to win this series, they will need more from Poole. The 6-foot-4 shooting guard has gone UNDER 12.5 points in four out of his past seven contests. In four regular-season matchups against the Lakers, Poole scored 16.8 points per game on 32.8 percent shooting from the field and 27.8 percent from beyond the arc.
However, his better performances against the Lakers came when he was in the starting lineup and not coming off the bench. In the two games off the bench, Poole only scored 11 points per game. We might be sweating out this bet, but it's worth a play, as Poole is a volatile shooter.
More player props consider: D'Angelo Russell OVER 6 assists, Jarred Vanderbilt OVER 5 rebounds, LeBron James OVER 26.5 points, and Stephen Curry OVER 31.5 points
