The East's No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks will open up the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs against the No. 8 seed Miami Heat on Sunday at 7:30 a.m. AEST. These two teams split the season series, with each team picking up wins on their home floor. The Heat will look to upset the Bucks in Game 1 after defeating the Bulls 102-91 in the final Eastern Conference play-in game on Friday night. Jimmy Butler carried Miami with 31 points, five rebounds, and three assists. The Heat also received an excellent performance from Max Strus, who scored 31 points on 7-of-12 shooting from three-point range. If Miami can get those performances from Butler and others against the Bucks, they will give themselves a chance in the first round.
However, the Bucks will not make it easy for the Heat as Giannis Antetokounmpo played at a high level this season, along with Jrue Holiday. Antetokounmpo averaged 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game in the regular season. Meanwhile, Holiday shined as the No. 2 option with 19.3 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game. The Bucks also have Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis, who could cause problems for Miami.
Below, we'll down the series odds for this matchup while giving out our prediction on how many games Heat-Bucks will go and series prop that bettors should consider checking out.
Heat vs. Bucks series odds, picks, predictions
| Team | Odds |
| Heat | $10 |
| Bucks | $1.05 |
The Bucks did not draw an easy first-round opponent in the Heat, who are battle-tested and coming off of a deep playoff run last season. However, Milwaukee is the better team on both sides of the ball and has one of the best players in the league (Antetokounmpo), who could end this series in 5-6 games.
The last time these teams played each other in the playoffs, the Bucks swept the Heat in four games in the first round in the 2020-21 season. They also faced off in the bubble in the summer of 2020, where the Heat took down the Bucks in five games.
The Bucks hope to set the tone at home to start the series, where they went 32-9 during the season. In their two wins against the Heat at Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee outscored Miami by 18.5 points per game. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Bucks win Games 1 and 2 before the series switches to South Beach. The Heat didn't have the best record on the road during the season (17-24) but played great at home (27-14), which could force this series to six games.
Betting advice: The best option for bettors is to place a wager on the correct series result, as they will get a greater return on investment. At $1.05 odds on the Bucks winning the series, bettors would be throwing away money. Miami is not a slouch and has veterans who can win a game or two in a playoff series (Butler and Kyle Lowry). However, the Bucks have the better overall depth and an explosive offense that can drop 120-plus points in a blink of an eye.
NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Correct series result for Heat-Bucks
| Series result | Odds |
| Miami Heat (4-0) | $67 |
| Miami Heat (4-1) | $41 |
| Miami Heat (4-2) | $21 |
| Miami Heat (4-3) | $21 |
| Milwaukee Bucks (4-3) | $6 |
| Milwaukee Bucks (4-2) | $4.75 |
| Milwaukee Bucks (4-1) | $2.75 |
| Milwaukee Bucks (4-0) | $3.50 |
We advise bettors to take the Bucks to win five or six games against the Heat. Again, bettors are not getting any value taking the Bucks to win the series at $1.05. But at least at $2.75 (4-1) and +$4.75 odds (4-2), they will make a little better extra cash. As we mentioned, the Bucks are the better offensive team in this series as they averaged 116.9 points per game this season (eighth in NBA) and play with great pace (100.5).
That does not bode well for Miami, who was ranked dead last in points per game (109.5) and 29th in pace (113.3) during the regular season. However, the Heat might keep it close with their defense, as they allowed 109.8 ppg (2nd in the NBA) this season. Since the 2019-20 season, Miami has won two first-round series, sweeping Indiana in four games and taking down the Hawks last season in five games. But neither of those teams can hold a candle up to this Bucks' team who could find themselves in the NBA Finals in two months.
Betting advice: Bettors should take the $2.75 and $4.75 odds if they like the Bucks to close out this first-round matchup in five or six games. However, if you still want to get some action in on the Heat, bettors could take the Heat series spread at +2.5 games ($2.35). This bet works, especially if the series goes six with the Bucks still winning.
