NBA playoffs 2018: Predictions, picks for Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz first-round series

Sean Deveney

NBA playoffs 2018: Predictions, picks for Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz first-round series image

The final day of the season probably could not have worked out worse for the Jazz, who were in line for the No. 3 seed if they could have beaten Portland on Thursday (AEDT). That would have meant home-court advantage — Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the league — and a softer matchup against the Pelicans. Instead, they get the biggest wildcard team in the playoffs and will have to begin on the road.

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For Oklahoma City, much is at stake. They pulled together the trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony this summer in hopes of creating a "super team" but they mostly got a "decent team." But there has been a feeling all along that, with the way the schedule is spaced in the playoffs and with the star power that the Thunder have, Oklahoma City could be a team more suited to the playoffs than the regular season.  

NBA playoffs 2018: Thunder vs. Jazz

The key player

The Jazz have handed the future of their offence to first-year star Donovan Mitchell, and he has posted an exciting rookie season: 20.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game.

But he will now get the benefit of a postseason test, a place to show how he handles the big stage. And this will be an especially big stage, sharing the limelight with Westbrook and probably finding himself guarded in stretches by George, one of the top defensive players in the league. How he handles it will be a glimpse into the future for the Jazz.

The big number

97.5 It’s amazing what a difference one player can make to a team defence. Go back to Jan. 17, when the Thunder had played most of the season with their defensive ace, Andre Roberson, in the lineup. They ranked third in defensive efficiency at 102.4 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz, meanwhile, were without Rudy Gobert for much of that time, and their defence was mediocre: a defensive rating of 105.2, 14th in the league.

But Roberson went out with knee surgery, and from Jan. 18th on, the Thunder had a defensive rating of 107.3, which is 16th in the league. The Jazz got Gobert back, and since that date, their defensive rating has been 97.5, by far the best in the league.

The prediction

It’ll be great team defence going up against great individual offensive players. Normally, the edge would go to the defence in that situation, but it’s hard to see where the Jazz will get consistent offence outside of Mitchell.

Thunder win series 4-3

Sean Deveney

Sean Deveney is the national NBA writer for Sporting News and author of four books, including Facing Michael Jordan. He has been with Sporting News since his internship in 1997.