Do the Raptors have any chance of stopping LeBron James?

Sean Deveney

Do the Raptors have any chance of stopping LeBron James? image

The backstory

There shouldn’t be much surprise that the Cavs and Raptors are back at it in the postseason, but the surprise might be that it is coming in the second round and not the conference finals as it did last year, when Cleveland wiped out the Raptors in six games. But one of the drawbacks of losing out on the top seed this year is that, after making quick work of Indiana, the Cavs have this difficult second-round opponent.

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The Raptors won one game against Cleveland in the regular season, though it was the last game of the year, and the trio of LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving sat for the Cavs. There is not much to glean from the first three games between the teams, because they all took place in the first quarter of the season, and were decided by 11 total points.

Raptors coach Dwane Casey will set the tone of the series even before it begins when he comes up with his decision on what to do with the starting five. Down, 2-1, in the series against Milwaukee, Casey pulled center Jonas Valanciunas from the starters and inserted small forward Norman Powell, moving Serge Ibaka to center. That move has given the Raptors a spark, but Casey might be more comfortable starting big against the Cavs, then moving to a small lineup if it becomes necessary.

The key player

Let’s keep it simple here — it’s James. The Cavaliers roster has looked a bit older and a lot shakier this season, and under most circumstances, it’d be reasonable to assume they were vulnerable in the East. But the difference is, he is the best player in the Eastern Conference, and as long as that remains the case, the Cavs will be very difficult to contend with. As the Pacers saw, having a star like Paul George gets you to the playoffs, but having a superstar like James gets you to the Finals.

Let’s review what James did in the first round. He averaged 32.8 points, 9.0 assists and 9.8 rebounds. That’s 6.4 points more than his season average, while also tacking on more rebounds and assists. He also averaged 3.0 steals and 2.0 blocks — double his steals from the regular season, and triple the blocks. He shot 45.0 percent from the 3-point line, and his overall shooting percentage was down, but only by a half-percent. Oddly, he struggled with free throws, making 57.9 percent.

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No team in the East has a guy who can handle James one-on-one, but the Raps will give that job to Powell, DeMarre Caroll and P.J. Tucker off the bench. Good luck with that.

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The big number

1.08. Let’s talk pick-and-rolls, because that has been Cleveland’s biggest defensive weak spot all season, and even with the sweep of the Pacers, the Cavs’ inability to stop ballhandlers in pick-and-rolls was evident. They allowed Indiana to score 1.08 points per possession on ballhandler pick-and-rolls, which ranks worst in the playoffs. The Pacers were a good PNR team during the season, ranking ninth at 0.89 points per possession in the play, but against the Cavs, they were juggernauts.

This matters because Toronto was far and away the top offensive producer in the regular season on ballhandler pick-and-rolls, scoring 24.5 points per game out of the play (Phoenix was second, at 21.9 points). The Raptors don’t get much from ball movement (they were last in the league in assists), and a good portion of their scoring comes from setting up DeRozan and Lowry with the ball in their hands, then letting them work off screens.  

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But the Raptors struggled against the Bucks’ long-limbed, pack-the-paint defense, which was effective at neutralizing the play. DeRozan averaged 10.7 points per game out of the pick-and-roll during the season, but that dropped by about three points per game against Milwaukee. Lowry, who averaged 8.5 points in the regular season, saw a comparable drop. For them, facing a Cleveland defense that has shown no progress in stopping the play will be a godsend.

The prediction

If a team can beat the Cavs in the East, it’s the Raptors. They have the size, the strategy, the experience and the ability to create mismatches that other teams in the conference can’t duplicate. Cleveland looks like a team that is ripe for the plucking, but the Cavaliers still have James, and when it comes to taking him out, Toronto is not quite up to that job. Cavaliers in 6.

Sean Deveney

Sean Deveney is the national NBA writer for Sporting News and author of four books, including Facing Michael Jordan. He has been with Sporting News since his internship in 1997.