The Nuggets will look to put the finishing touches on a great season as they gear up to play the Heat in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals (Tuesday, 10:30 a.m. AEST, ESPN). Denver is one win away from winning their first NBA title in franchise history after defeating Miami 108-95 in Game 4.
After winning Game 3 in dominant fashion, the Nuggets knew that the Heat would not back down in Game 4 in front of their home court for potentially the last time this season. However, Denver wasn't phased and received an incredible performance from veteran power forward Aaron Gordon. Gordon scored a playoff-high 27 points (game-high) on an efficient 11-of-15 shooting from the field and 3-of-4 from deep. He also grabbed seven rebounds and dished out six assists.
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Denver also got a tremendous outing from Bruce Brown off the bench, who scored 21 points. With Gordon and Brown playing out of their minds, it allowed Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to take a backseat. Jokic had a double-double consisting of 23 points and 12 rebounds, while Murray had 15 points and 12 assists. Murray has now recorded 10 or more assists in four-straight games and will look to make it five in Game 5.
As for the Heat, Jimmy Butler (25 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists) and Bam Adebayo (20 points and 11 rebounds) had solid performances for the third-straight contest. Miami also got an extra scoring boost from Kevin Love, who scored 12 points (4-6 FG, 3-5 3pt) in 18 minutes. However, the backcourt of Max Strus and Gabe Vincent struggled in the home loss, scoring a combined two points on 1-of-10 from the field and 0-of-7 from three-point range. For the Heat to force a Game 6, they will need Vincent and Strus to play better because the Nuggets are a well-oiled machine on offence.
Will the Heat win their second road game in this series, or will the Nuggets close things out and walk away as NBA champions? Below, we'll break down Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Heat and Nuggets, giving our prediction and best player market bets.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 odds, picks, and predictions
- Line: Heat +9.0 ($1.85); Nuggets -9.0 ($1.95)
- Total: OVER 208.5 ($1.90); UNER 208.5 ($1.90)
- Head to Head: Heat $4.00; Nuggets $1.26
The Nuggets are 9.0-point favourites heading into Game 5 after being short road favourites in Games 3 and 4 in Miami. Denver suffered its only home playoff loss this postseason in Game 2, where Miami was 8.5-point underdogs. Outside of that defeat, the Nuggets are 9-1 straight up at home and 6-4 against the line in these NBA playoffs.
However, we should not expect Game 5 to be a cakewalk, as the Heat know they can compete with the Nuggets. In this year's NBA playoffs, Miami is 7-5 straight up on the road and 8-4 with the line. This team doesn't fear being the underdog and has shown through the postseason they can win on the road.
For the Heat to win, they must defend the three-point line better. In Game 3, Miami held Denver to 27.4 percent from deep, which was good enough to win, if they slowed down the Jokic-Murray combo. Fast forward to Game 4, and Miami's defensive principles went out of the window as the Nuggets shot 50 percent from beyond the arc. It doesn't matter what Butler and Adebayo do if no one can defend the three-point line.
On the other hand, Miami did an exceptional job of winning the battle on the glass and being competitive in fast break points. However, the Heat had 15 turnovers, leading to 17 points for Denver, which is a quick way to lose. If the Heat can defend the three-point line and get better production from Strus and Vincent, they could steal Game 5. We know Butler and Adebayo will show up in a must-win game, but who will show up beside them as the Nos. 3 and 4 scorers? That question remains and will be answered quickly in Game 5.
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As for the Nuggets, they are $1.08 to win the NBA Finals as they have a commanding 3-1 series lead. Denver did not need their stars to lead the way in Game 4, but Murray and Jokic still made the necessary plays and knocked down timely shots. We should expect Murray and Jokic to come out blazing as they will try to deliver an early knockout blow to the Heat.
In addition to the play of the starting lineup in Games 3 and 4, the bench showed up and provided Denver with an extra surge of offense. Rookie Christian Braun had his breakout game with 15 points and four rebounds in Game 3, while Bruce Brown had 21 points (8-11 FG, 3-5 3pt), four rebounds, and two assists in Game 4. If Brown or Braun can duplicate their performances from Miami in Game 5, the Nuggets will be on their way to an NBA title.
The Heat won't back down in a win-or-go-home situation, as they are 8-4 against the line this season when the line was between +7.5 and +10.5. However, the Nuggets have too much firepower when everybody is clicking on all cylinders and has been an excellent team at home. It's tough to win a closeout game in any sport, but the Nuggets are 3-0 this postseason in closeout games and winning by 3.3 points per game.
Prediction: Nuggets 107, Heat 103. The Heat (+9.0) cover the line, with the game going UNDER the total (208.5).
Best player market bet for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope UNDER 7.5 points ($1.80)
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Caldwell-Pope has noticeably struggled in the NBA Finals, despite Denver being one win away from its first NBA championship in franchise history. The veteran shooting guard is posting 6.5 points per game on 33.3 percent shooting from the field and 28.6 percent from three-point range.
Caldwell-Pope scored seven points in the Game 4 win but only took five shots. It's hard to see things changing for KCP in Game 5 as he's gone UNDER 7.5 in four-straight games and has a lot to focus on defensively.
Other Heat-Nuggets Game 5 player markets we like: Michael Porter Jr. OVER 5.5 rebounds ($2.00), Jamal Murray OVER 25.5 points ($$1.95), Kyle Lowry OVER 9.5 points ($1.85).
