Chet Holmgren is perhaps the most polarizing player in the 2022 NBA Draft.
Some view him as a superstar in the making, the embodiment of the modern big man who bends defenses on one end and anchors a defense on the other. Player comparisons are hard to come by for Gonzaga's one-and-done stud because we quite simply haven't seen anyone like him.
On the other hand, some view him as too much of a risk, a player with an unprecedented body type that won't hold up against the rigors of NBA bigs.
He's the prototypical prospect who teams fear both passing on and drafting. Teams passing on Holmgren run the risk of him turning into by far the best player in a loaded draft class. Teams drafting Holmgren run the risk of banking on a prospect for which there simply is no precedent.
He's the ultimate roll of the dice draft prospect with perhaps the widest gulf between floor and ceiling whose success will depend on factors that don't show up on stat pages, box scores or spreadsheets. Which is exactly why diving into the tape matters.
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Here is a complete scouting report on the most interesting player in the 2022 NBA Draft.
Chet Holmgren scouting report: Strengths
At 7-foot-1, 190 pounds, it's easy to look at Holmgren and say "that won't work in the NBA." When Gonzaga faced off against Memphis and fellow lottery prospect Jalen Duren in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, NBA Draft junkies immediately circled that game as an opportunity for significant insight into Holmgren.
At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, Duren is the most physical player in this year's draft class with some comparing him to a young Dwight Howard. Holmgren's matchup against Duren was the chance to prove he could hang with someone much stronger and more physical.
And Holmgren passed that physicality test within the first few minutes of the game.
Memphis clearly made it a priority to have Duren attack Holmgren early on, and Holmgren won that battle more often than not. On the first possession of the game, Duren went right into Holmgren, but Holmgren's length disrupted his shot and caused a miss.
On the very next possession, Memphis posted up Duren on Holmgren and cleared out the entire side of the floor to let the NBA prospects bang bodies. Holmgren won that battle, too.
Duren hit him with two physical blows and Holmgren absorbed them both. When Duren went up for a layup, we got to see Holmgren's impeccable timing as a shot-blocker, using all of his reported 7-foot-6 wingspan to swat the attempt while hardly leaving his feet.
A few minutes later, Memphis went right back to that same play. The result was no different.
As you can hear the announcer say, Duren has 55 pounds on Holmgren, yet he barely moves him. Even with a decent spin move, Holmgren's standing reach covers so much ground that he's able to block his shot without jumping at all this time.
This is a credit to how savvy Holmgren is as a rim protector. He averaged 3.7 blocks per game this past season and collected 13 in just three NCAA Tournament games. Whatever he lacks physically, he makes up for it with intelligent defensive positioning, coordinated footwork and great timing, knowing he'll rarely have to leave his feet to disrupt shots, which helps him stay out of foul trouble.
And speaking of, we were robbed of seeing more Holmgren-versus-Duren possessions in that matchup because Duren only played 19 minutes due to foul trouble.
But in those 19 minutes, Holmgren proved doubters wrong about not being able to hang with players who are more built than he is. There was only one possession where Duren truly man-handled him, and you could make the case that Holmgren flopped to try and field Duren's fifth and final foul.
Holmgren also showed how he can be a mismatch for opposing bigs because of his ability to create shots from the perimeter.
This was a solid opportunity for Holmgren to silence his critics and he stepped up to the task.
Chet Holmgren scouting report: Weaknesses
As already mentioned, Holmgren's size and frame are the biggest concerns about how he projects as an NBA player. Currently in the league today, the Thunder's Aleksej Pokusevski (7-feet, 190 lbs.) is the only player who matches Holmgren's stature as a 7-footer who weighs under 200 lbs.
The common argument is, "how will he fare against dominant bigs like Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic?" To be fair, there probably aren't more than five players in the NBA today who can properly matchup up with those guys.
Concerns about his size aside, Holmgren's biggest advantage as a 7-footer is his ability to play on the perimeter. But if he's going to exploit those mismatches, he has to tighten his handle and become a more consistent shooter off the dribble. He shot 39 percent from 3-point range in college – which is great – but fine-tuning his ball-handling to be able to beat bigs off the dribble would be a huge boost in creating mismatches.
Lastly, even though he has coordinated footwork for his size, he could benefit from getting quicker to be able to hold his own on switches on the perimeter. He defended fine out there in college, but guards in the NBA are lightning-fast and teams will hunt him if he's unable to keep up.
Chet Holmgren NBA player comparison
Because of his unique frame and playing style, there aren't many players to compare to Holmgren. I think he has shades of Wizards forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is one of the few lanky and mobile 7-footers who can protect the rim and confidently step outside and knock down 3s.
Prior to tearing his ACL with the Knicks, Porzingis was viewed universally as a true unicorn — a shot-blocking, sweet-shooting, floor-running big who could carry a team on both ends. Don't let Porzingis's post-injury downfall cloud how rare of a talent he was at his best.
Holmgren is a significantly better shooter than Porzingis and offers even more upside. Will he deliver on that promise? There is no guarantee. But Holmgren's combination of size and skill makes him perhaps the highest ceiling prospect in this draft.
