So you're saying there's a chance?
The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery is upon us and it's one of the most important in the history of the league. With generational prospect Victor Wembanyama sitting atop the 2023 NBA Draft board, franchises will exercise all of their good luck charms to do whatever it takes to land the No. 1 pick.
In 2019, the NBA adjusted its weighted lottery system to try and prevent tanking, giving teams with the three worst records an equal 14.0 percent chance to win the top pick.
And while a team with a 14.0 percent chance has won three out of the four NBA Draft Lotteries since 2019, the Pelicans landed superstar forward Zion Williamson with a slim 6.0 percent chance in the first year with the new odds.
Will another long-shot franchise get lucky with Wembanyama? Or will the French phenom land with one of the teams atop of the lottery odds board?
MORE: Pre-lottery NBA Mock Draft
The Sporting News has the complete history of NBA Draft Lottery winners below.
Longest odds to win NBA Draft Lottery since 1990
Since the weighted lottery system was adopted in 1990, eight teams that had a first-pick probability of 6.30 percent or lower have won the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft.
In 1993, the Magic won the lottery with a 1.5 percent probability, marking the largest lottery upset in the weighted era.
In 2019, the NBA adjusted the weighted lottery system to prevent tanking, giving teams with the three worst records in the league an equal 14.0 percent chance. In the first year with the new odds in place, the Pelicans won the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery with a slim 6.0 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick.
MORE: Full details on why the NBA changed the lottery odds
Every year since, a team with the highest odds (14.0 percent) has won the lottery. You can find the longest odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery below.
| Year | Team | Probability (Rank) | Selection |
| 2019 | Pelicans | 6.00% (T-7th) | Zion Williamson |
| 2014 | Cavaliers | 1.40% (9th) | Andrew Wiggins |
| 2011 | Clippers (conveyed to Cavaliers) | 2.80% (8th) | Kyrie Irving |
| 2008 | Bulls | 1.70% (9th) | Derrick Rose |
| 2007 | Trail Blazers | 5.30% (6th) | Greg Oden |
| 2005 | Bucks | 6.30% (6th) | Andrew Bogut |
| 2000 | Nets | 4.40% (7th) | Kenyon Martin |
| 1993 | Magic | 1.52% (11th) | Chris Webber |
2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Here are the odds for the 2023 NBA Draft lottery.
| Team | Odds for No. 1 Pick |
| Pistons | 14.0% |
| Rockets | 14.0% |
| Spurs | 14.0% |
| Hornets | 12.5% |
| Trail Blazers | 10.5% |
| Magic | 9.0% |
| Pacers | 6.8% |
| Wizards | 6.7% |
| Jazz | 4.5% |
| Mavericks | 3.0% |
| Bulls | 1.8% |
| Thunder | 1.7% |
| Raptors | 1.0% |
| Pelicans | 0.5% |
History of No. 1 overall picks in NBA Draft
Here is every team in the lottery era (since 1985) to win the No. 1 overall pick along with their pre-lottery odds. From 1985-89, every team in the lottery had the same odds to win the No. 1 overall pick.
The NBA began using weighted odds by record starting in 1990 and adjusted that format to try and prevent tanking in 2019.
| Year | Team | No. 1 Pick Probability | Pre-Lottery Position | Selection |
| 2022 | Magic | 14.0% | T-1st | Paolo Banchero |
| 2021 | Pistons | 14.0% | T-1st | Cade Cunningham |
| 2020 | Timberwolves | 14.0% | T-1st | Anthony Edwards |
| 2019 | Pelicans | 6.0% | 7th | Zion Williamson |
| 2018 | Suns | 25.0% | 1st | Deandre Ayton |
| 2017 | 76ers (via Celtics) | 25.0% | 1st | Markelle Fultz |
| 2016 | 76ers | 25.0% | 1st | Ben Simmons |
| 2015 | Timberwolves | 25.0% | 1st | Karl-Anthony Towns |
| 2014 | Cavaliers | 1.7% | 9th | Andrew Wiggins |
| 2013 | Cavaliers | 15.6% | 3rd | Anthony Bennett |
| 2012 | Hornets | 13.7% | 4th | Anthony Davis |
| 2011 | Cavaliers (via Clippers) | 2.8% | 8th | Kyrie Irving |
| 2010 | Wizards | 10.3% | 5th | John Wall |
| 2009 | Clippers | 17.7% | 3rd | Blake Griffin |
| 2008 | Bulls | 1.7% | 9th | Derrick Rose |
| 2007 | Trail Blazers | 5.3% | 7th | Greg Oden |
| 2006 | Raptors | 8.8% | 5th | Andrea Bargnani |
| 2005 | Bucks | 6.3% | 6th | Andrew Bogut |
| 2004 | Magic | 25% | 1st | Dwight Howard |
| 2003 | Cavaliers | 22.5% | T-1st | LeBron James |
| 2002 | Rockets | 8.9% | 5th | Yao Ming |
| 2001 | Wizards | 15.7% | 3rd | Kwame Brown |
| 2000 | Nets | 4.4% | 7th | Kenyon Martin |
| 1999 | Bulls | 15.7% | 3rd | Elton Brand |
| 1998 | Clippers | 22.5% | 2nd | Michael Olowakandi |
| 1997 | Spurs | 21.6% | 2nd | Tim Duncan |
| 1996 | 76ers | 33.7% | 1st | Allen Iverson |
| 1995 | Warriors | 9.4% | 5th | Joe Smith |
| 1994 | Bucks | 16.3% | 4th | Glenn Robinson |
| 1993 | Magic | 1.5% | 11th | Chris Webber |
| 1992 | Magic | 15.2% | 2nd | Shaquille O'Neal |
| 1991 | Hornets | 10.6% | 5th | Larry Johnson |
| 1990 | Nets | 16.7% | 1st | Derrick Coleman |
| 1989 | Kings | 11.1% | T-1st | Pervis Ellison |
| 1988 | Clippers | 14.3% | T-1st | Danny Manning |
| 1987 | Spurs | 14.3% | T-1st | David Robinson |
| 1986 | Cavaliers (via 76ers) | 14.3% | T-1st | Brad Daugherty |
| 1985 | Knicks | 14.3% | T-1st | Patrick Ewing |
What channel is the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery on?
- TV channel: ESPN
- Live stream: Sling TV
Fans in the U.S. can watch the NBA Draft Lottery and playoffs on Sling TV, which is now offering $10 off your first month! Stream Sling Orange for $30 in your first month to catch the lottery plus every playoff games on TNT, ESPN & ABC. Local regional blackout restrictions apply.
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