Kevin Durant is back.
After suffering an ankle injury in a pregame warm-up in early March, the 13-time All-Star is set to return on Wednesday when the Suns host the Timberwolves. It will be Durant's fourth game in a Suns uniform and his first playing in Phoenix since the blockbuster trade.
While Durant and the Suns don't have much time to get on the same page before they hope to make a deep postseason run, there was one play from his debut that tells you all you need to know about how much of a headache he, Devin Booker and Chris Paul are going to be for teams.
You know what that means — to the film room!
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The play
Paul sets up Booker for a wide-open 3-pointer.
Breakdown
Paul brings the ball up the court for the Suns following a jumper from Hornets big man Mark Williams.
The Suns overload the right side of the court with Booker, Josh Okogie and Deandre Ayton. That clears the left side for Paul to run a pick-and-roll with Durant.
Durant's defender, Gordon Hayward, hedges the pick-and-roll, probably to prevent Paul from turning the corner and pulling up from the elbow, where he's automatic. The problem? That leaves Durant unguarded for a split second because Terry Rozier doesn't want to switch onto him for an obvious reason — there's only so much a 6-foot-1 guard can do to disrupt the 6-foot-10 Durant.
To avoid Durant rolling to the basket for a layup, a third defender, Kelly Oubre Jr., gets involved.
The Hornets are so focused on Paul and Durant that Booker, a three-time All-Star who is averaging a career-best 28.1 points per game this season, is now being defended by — wait, nobody?
Booker started the possession on the baseline, but he curls off a pair of down screens from Okogie and Ayton for an open 3-pointer. He misses the shot, but he's as good as it gets in those situations.
Not only is Booker among the league leaders in points scored off of screens this season, but he's converting those opportunities at a rate of 1.24 points per possession, which ranks him in the 89th percentile. Additionally, he's connected on 45.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s. That's also one of the best marks in the league.
Long story short, the Suns will be quite happy with this:
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Why it matters
I mean, what are you supposed to do? This is classic prisoners' dilemma, choose your own adventure, pick your poison, etc. type of stuff.
- Had Hayward not hedged, Paul would've likely gotten to the elbow, where, again, he is automatic.
- Had Rozier switched, Durant would've had a mismatch in the post, where he's also automatic.
- Had Oubre not helped, the Hornets would have been at risk of a 7-footer rolling to the basket for a layup or dunk.
Three different ways of defending a pick-and-roll. No clear answer.
Suns offense with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul
It's only one play, but it goes to show the impossible decisions teams are going to have to make when Durant, Booker and Paul are on the court together. Small sample size, of course, but the Suns scored at a rate of 136.2 points per 100 possessions with the three of them on the court in the first three games they played together.
Sustainable? Absolutely not. (That would make for the best offensive rating of all time by a country mile.) But Durant, Booker and Paul give the Suns the firepower that few — if any — teams in the Western Conference will have a shot of slowing down.
Suns vs. Western Conference contenders
Let's break those matchups down one-by one.
The Suns are a nightmare matchup for the Nuggets because they have not one, not two, but three of the best midrange shooters in NBA history who thrive against drop coverage. And drop coverage with Nikola Jokic is what Denver does.
The Clippers have perimeter size to throw at them, but Paul George's injury makes them a huge unknown.
The Kings have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long.
The Grizzlies have been one of the best defensive teams, but they're missing two rotational players in Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, and it's safe to assume they'd target Ja Morant much like they did to Luka Doncic in last season's playoffs. Even if Adams were to return, he faces some of the same defensive limitations as Nikola Jokic does.
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The Warriors are another massive unknown. On one hand, they're the defending champions and have a core that has proven they can take down anyone. On the other, they've struggled on the road all season long and haven't been nearly as dominant defensively. If you think they're going to make it back to the Finals, it's probably based more on what they've accomplished in the past rather than what they've done this season.
It's not like the Suns don't have their own concerns. Injuries are a big one. Durant and Booker have both missed extended time this season, and injuries have a way of hitting Paul at the worst times. So is depth. The Suns sacrificed real depth to acquire Durant. After Durant, Booker, Paul and Ayton, you get to the likes of Okogie, Torrey Craig, Landry Shamet and Terrence Ross — valuable role players, but ones with clear limitations on one side of the court. Teams will absolutely copy what Dallas did earlier this season by ignoring Phoenix's shakier shooters.
Still, if Durant, Booker and Paul are healthy, it's going to be hard to bet against the Suns because of how well the three of them complement each other offensively. That one play where Durant doesn't even touch the ball and Booker misses a wide-open shot tells you everything you need to know about their championship potential.
