The leap. The single hardest thing to take in sports.
For a team, it's the leap from a pretender to a contender. For a player, it's the leap from having potential to being an All-Star.
Last season, Julius Randle made the leap.
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Randle averaged career-highs in points, rebounds, assists and 3-point percentage. He was named an All-Star for the first time in his career and he led the Knicks' resurgence, helping them earn a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. The combination of it all helped Randle win the league's Most Improved Player of the Year Award. It was the perfect end to a season no one really saw coming.
Through 20 games, Randle and the Knicks appear to have lost some of the magic that helped New York rekindle their love for their team. Randle's points and assists are down and he's flirting with the lowest field goal percentage of his career.
So what should we make of it? Is Julius Randle just a one-hit-wonder? Or has there been evidence to say he'll get back on track?
When comparing Randle's first 20 games this season to last year's breakout year we have to start with his 3-point shooting. Prior to last season, Randle had shown the ability to knock down catch-and-shoot 3s, but he was never a reliable pull-up 3-point shooter. That changed in 2020-21 when Randle connected on 40.0 percent of his pull-up triples, according to NBA Stats. And it wasn't that he was just making pull-up 3s, he was making tough 3s. Randle drilled 41.3 percent of his 3s with a "tight" defender, which is defined by being 2-to-4 feet away.
This year, those shots just aren't falling, Randle is shooting 35.4 percent on pull-up 3s and a dismal 14.3 percent when the defender is 2-to-4 feet away. The pull-up 3s are probably right around where we should expect Randle to be, but to be a star in this league, you have to hit shots with a defender draped on you. It's not fair, but that is a requirement. Randle has lost the ability to do so, at least temporarily, which should set off alarm bells for Knick fans who believe Randle is a true No. 1 option.
Last year in the playoffs, Randle shot 30.8 percent with a defender 2-to-4 feet away. It led to the Knicks getting bounced in five games as the team struggled to score against the Hawks in the halfcourt. It's why the Knicks front office went out of their way this offseason to get more weapons to place around Randle, but so far it hasn't paid even dividends.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks are averaging 91.6 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt, which is good for 20th in the league. Bringing in the likes of Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker was supposed to help New York with its halfcourt scoring — it hasn't. The moves were supposed to make life easier for Randle to score — that hasn't been the case either.
So what's the solution?
The obvious answer is for Randle to start hitting shots.
The other answer might be to get him the rock more. When watching the Knicks, it feels like Randle has the ball a ton, but his usage and touches have gone down from where they were last year.
| Touches | Time of poss. | Usage Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 74.5 | 4.2 | 27 |
| 2020-21 | 83.6 | 4.7 | 28.5 |
*numbers via NBA Stats
If Randle is expected to be the go-to player he was last year, he needs the ball in his hands to do it. And while the Knicks brass brought in some weapons to help reduce the load Randle had to carry last season, it hasn't exactly turned into success for them. So why not go back to what worked last season? Let Randle run the show and it may allow him to work out of his shooting rut and get his assists back to where they were last season.
Now, if only New York can figure out its defensive issues — they'd be right back in business.
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