The NBA Finals concluded two weeks ago, but headlines in and around the league keep popping up fast and furious. The NBA Draft offered plenty of fireworks, free agency rumors have gone viral almost daily, and a handful of major trades have already taken place. Chief among the trades (so far) was the Hawks’ acquisition of All-Star guard Dejounte Murray from San Antonio, in exchange for veteran wing Danilo Gallinari, three first-round draft picks, and a future first-round swap. That deal swung Atlanta’s NBA Finals futures odds by a massive margin.
Free agency officially begins at 6:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, rapidly transitioning the NBA from tampering season to deals by the dozen. The Sporting News will have continuous coverage of all the developments from start to finish, and we’ll unpack the full betting fallout after all the smoke clears. For now, we’re solely interested in how the Murray trade impacts the Finals odds of the Hawks, and to a lesser extent, the Spurs.
MORE: Trade Grades for the Murray Deal | Free Agency and Trade Predictions
Let’s take a look at the updated 2023 NBA Finals futures odds for both Atlanta and San Antonio, and determine whether you should make a wager now on either team to go the distance with their new-look rosters.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, from yesterday and today
Hawks' Finals odds:
Atlanta Hawks +3500 (Before Murray trade: +6500)
After multiple days of rumors and speculation, Hawks president Travis Schlenk and GM Landry Fields finally got their guy. This shift in odds reflects just how important a piece Murray can be for Atlanta, a franchise coming off a 43-39 season and a first-round gentleman’s sweep at the hands of the Heat.
The Hawks have one of the most dynamic young scorers in the NBA in point guard Trae Young, who led Atlanta to the Eastern Conference Finals at 22 in 2021. Scoring never seems to be a problem with ‘Ice Trae’ leading the charge — Atlanta finished the ‘21-22 season with a scoring average of 113.1 points, sixth most in the NBA. The Hawks also averaged 116.2 points at State Farm Arena, second to the Grizzlies for most points per home game.
The major difference between those Grizzlies, who finished with the second-best record in the NBA this past season, and the Hawks: Memphis had a defense. The Grizz allowed just 109.9 points per game this season with a +5.3 average point differential. Atlanta surrendered 112 points per game, ranking 18th in the NBA and giving it an average point differential of just 1.1.
Murray will help expand that point differential. His offensive abilities are obvious, whether you analyze his stats sheets or his game tapes. A quick and rangy 6-4 guard with a 6-10 wingspan, he’s a nightmare to guard when he gets cooking. He possesses toughness, playmaking ability, and a penchant for finding high-quality shots. He averaged 21.1 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.3 rebounds this season, a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy 34-48 season for San Antonio. His presence in the backcourt will allow Young to play off-ball much more, spacing the floor and finding open three-pointers off back-screens like Steph Curry.
However, the biggest impact Murray will most likely have is on the other side of the floor. A 2018 All-Defensive selection, the sixth-year pro just finished the 2022 season with a league-leading 138 steals, good for two per game. Despite playing just 68 games, Murray had the most steals in a season since Paul George swiped 170 for OKC in 2018-19.
Murray’s quick feet, toughness, and athleticism will help him lock down opposing guards significantly better than Kevin Huerter did last season. Huerter finished 2022 with an unfathomable 122.2 defensive rating (and a -11.2 net rating). He turned out to be a terrible backcourt complement to the defensively challenged Young. When they shared the court, Huerter and Young had a 117.1 defensive rating.
Murray should be able to return to the defensive greatness he displayed in his rookie season. With De’Andre Hunter and potentially John Collins flanking him on the wings, and Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu protecting the rim, this team has the potential to improve mightily on the defensive end. Coach Nate McMillan, a two-time All-Defensive guard in his playing days, has always stressed defense and physicality — now he might actually be able to implement it with this core.
Surrounding Trae Young with a defense-first core of Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter and Onyeka Okungwu is the perfect ecosystem for everyone involved.
— Evan Sidery (@esidery) June 29, 2022
Young will make life so much easier for everyone else, and now he can be hid well while conserving energy on the defensive end.
Give yourself a pat on the back if you bet the Hawks at +6500 prior to the completion of the Murray trade. The Hawks were 7-3 in one-possession games and 27-14 at home this past season. With a young but intelligent core, Atlanta should be one of the top squads in the East, certainly good enough to contend for a title. The addition of Murray jumped the Hawks two spots in the conference finals odds, from 8th-best at +5330 to 6th at +1867. More moves could be on the horizon — both Collins and Huerter have been rumored to be moved next — so consider making a modest wager on ATL before the value disappears like Huerter’s starting role.
BETTING OUTLOOK: Intriguing line — get a modest wager in at +3500 before the value diminishes
San Antonio Spurs +80000 (Before Murray trade: +35000)
Gregg Popovich and the Spurs are clearly focused on a full rebuild with their sights set on top 2023 draft prospect Victor Wembanyana and the dazzling class around him. By all accounts, the return San Antonio netted — for a 25-year-old All-Star with defensive chops, playmaking ability, and consistent triple-double potential — was mediocre. Pop took home a lottery-protected first-rounder (originally Charlotte’s), and three Atlanta first-rounders (likely in the high teens to mid 20s). He also landed Danilo Gallinari, who is widely believed to move elsewhere sooner rather than later.
The Spurs have good bones, but the structure as a whole looks a little flimsy without Murray. Promising third-year point guard Tre Jones could step into the starting role, but there will be growing pains. Wing scorer Keldon Johnson should see increased usage, but he has often suffered through rough patches offensively. Small forward Lonnie Walker appears to be moving to greener pastures sometime this weekend.
Our own Nick Metallinos gave the Spurs a “C” on their trade grade, and frankly that seems generous. The short-term outlook for San Antonio is grim, at best, and the long-term forecast is murky at best. Stay far, far away from this imploding tank — the only reason the Spurs’ title odds are below six figures is because the books want to attract some action before the wheels fall off completely.
BETTING OUTLOOK: Zero value — don’t touch +80000
