FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 predictions: Odds, top sleepers, best bets at men's tournament

Kyle Irving

FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 predictions: Odds, top sleepers, best bets at men's tournament image

The 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup is upon us.

Set to tip off on Friday, Aug. 25 in the Philippines, Japan and Indonesia, 32 countries will compete for the chance to take home a gold medal.

Some fans may not be as familiar with international play as they are with the NBA, so that's where we come in to help guide you with some betting tips on the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup.

Who will take home the gold? Which players will lead the tournament in total points, rebounds and assists?

The Sporting News has you covered with a pick and sleepers for each category.

FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 odds, predictions

Jalen Brunson and Anthony Edwards
(Getty Images)

Odds to win the tournament

(Courtesy of TAB)

 
Team Odds
USA $1.85
Canada $8
France $10
Australia $11
Serbia $13
Spain $13
Slovenia $17
Germany $21
Greece $26
Italy $41
Lithuania $51
Brazil $67
Dominican Republic $81
Latvia $151
Finland $151
Venezuela $251
South Sudan $251
Puerto Rico $251
New Zealand $251
Montenegro $251
China $251

Our pick: USA ($1.85)

You could go chasing longer odds here, but let's not overthink it. The United States roster is not only loaded with talent, it's a complete team that can compete with any matchups that other countries throw at it.

Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson and Brandon Ingram can all get buckets. Tyrese Haliburton is the perfect playmaker and floor general. Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler are all lockdown defenders at their positions. Paolo Banchero adds a layer of versatility to the team's frontcourt.

After a disappointing seventh-place finish at the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup, Team USA learned from its mistake and assembled a roster of players who fit seamlessly together.

Looking to remain on top of the world after taking home gold at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, the United States will be back with a vengeance to win the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup.

Sleeper: Germany ($21)

If you're looking to sprinkle some money on a sleeper team with longer odds, Germany could be a good play.

Led by NBA players like Dennis Schroder, Daniel Theis, and Franz and Moritz Wagner, the Germans have a strong blend of talent and familiarity from previous tournaments. Franz Wagner should be one of the most skilled players at the tournament, while Schroder is a playmaking and scoring machine on the FIBA stage.

Germany faces a tough first group with Australia, Finland, and Japan, but they are expected to advance. If Germany can finish first in its second Group Stage, there's a chance it will avoid the United States until the gold medal match.

While Australia, Canada and Slovenia will be popular sleeper choices, Germany is worth a look at $21.

Most total points scored in tournament

(Courtesy of TAB)

Player Country Odds
Luka Doncic Slovenia $4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Canada $4
Anthony Edwards USA $10
Bogdan Bogdanovic Serbia $10
Evan Fournier France $11
Patty Mills Australia $13
Lauri Markkanen Finland $13
Karl-Anthony Towns Dominican Republic $13
Jalen Brunson USA $13
Dennis Schroder Germany $13
RJ Barrett Canada $13
Jordan Clarkson Philippines $17
Franz Wagner Germany $17
Simone Fontecchio  Italy $21
Brandon Ingram USA $21

Our pick: Luka Doncic ($4.00)

This feels like an easy choice.

Doncic led the 2020 Tokyo Olympics in scoring by a wide margin, scoring 85 points over three Group Stage games for an average of 28.3. The next closest player was Japan's Rui Hachimura, who scored 67 points over the same span for an average of 22.3.

While Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada didn't qualify for the Tokyo Olympics, I don't think he'll take the scoring crown from Doncic. SGA will be the No. 1 option for Canada and he is certainly worthy of holding equal odds with Doncic, but RJ Barrett will also take a solid share of his shot attempts.

Doncic is a one-man show for Slovenia and he should cruise to another scoring title.

Sleeper: Lauri Markkanen ($13)

Markkanen is worth sprinkling some money on, as the Finnish forward broke out on the international stage last summer.

Markkanen used the 2022 EuroBasket as a launchpad for a breakout 2022-23 NBA season where he was named an All-Star for the first time in his career.

He led the entire tournament with 195 total points, surpassing players like Doncic (182 points) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (176 points). Markkanen averaged 27.9 points per game at the tournament and Finland will need similar production from its superstar if it will advance past the Group Stage.

Most total rebounds in tournament

(Courtesy of TAB)

Player Country Odds
Rudy Gobert France $4.50
Jonas Valanciunas Lithuania $8
Luka Doncic Slovenia $9
Jaren Jackson Jr.  USA $10
Karl-Anthony Towns Dominican Republic $10
Nikola Milutinov Serbia $11
Lauri Markkanen Finland $11
Nikola Vucevic Montenegro $11
Walter Tavares Cape Verde $13
Bobby Portis USA $13
Hamed Haddadi Iran $13
Mike Tobey Slovenia $13

Our pick: Jonas Valanciunas ($8)

Even though Gobert is the heavy favorite, we like Valanciunas and his $8.00 odds.

Valanciunas is one of the best rebounders in the NBA, averaging double-digit boards in each of his last four seasons. Valanciunas actually out-rebounded Gobert at EuroBasket last summer — and that was when he was sharing a frontcourt with the NBA's 2023 rebounding champion, Domantas Sabonis.

Sabonis will not be available for Lithuania at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, meaning Valanciunas should eat up all of his country's rebounding opportunities.

Sleeper: Luka Doncic ($9)

Doncic has to battle his teammate, Mike Tobey (13), for boards, but the do-it-all forward might be worth a long-shot wager. He finished in the top 10 for total rebounds at the 2022 EuroBasket and he's a nightly triple-double threat for Slovenia.

Josh Giddey (Australian Boomers)
Getty Images

Most total assists in tournament

(Courtesy of TAB)

Player Country Odds
Tyrese Haliburton USA $3.50
Luka Doncic Slovenia $4
Josh Giddey Australia $7.50
Dennis Schroder Germany $9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Canada $11
Jalen Brunson USA $11
Tremont Waters Puerto Rico $13
Thomas Walkup Greece $13
Patty Mills Australia $13
Marcelo Huertas Brazil $17
Bogdan Bogdanovic Serbia $17
Rokas Jokubaitis Lithuania $17

Our pick: Josh Giddey ($7.50)

Haliburton might be the favorite but I love Giddey's odds at $7.50.

Team USA has plenty of ball-handlers and playmakers in Haliburton, Brunson, and Edwards. Even Ingram and Banchero will take away from Haliburton's touches as a passer.

Doncic is an incredible playmaker, but he'll also be expected to score over 25 points per game for Slovenia.

Giddey will be the lead floor general for Australia, allowing Mills to solely focus on scoring. He's one of the best passers in the entire tournament and everything will run through the Boomers' star in his debut tournament.

MORE: How Tokyo Olympics snub drove Josh Giddey to greatness

Sleeper: Dennis Schroder ($9)

Schroder has been a double-double machine with points and assists during Germany's FIBA World Cup exhibition tune-up games and he'll be the country's primary ball-handler and playmaker.

Full disclosure, though — he may not be worth a wager since his odds aren't much longer than Giddey's. 

Kyle Irving

Kyle Irving Photo

You read that wrong – not Kyrie Irving. From Boston, graduated from the University of New Hampshire. Sixth season as a content producer for NBA.com's Global editions. Covering the NBA Draft has become his annual "dream come true" moment on the job. Irving has a soft spot for pass-first point guards, with Rajon Rondo and Steve Nash being two of his favorite players of all time.