The NRL referees have been a bit less trigger happy since their directive from up high in June to lessen the nitpicking, and there have been marked changes in the game since - whether they’re good or bad is up for debate.
The referee’s initial penalty blitz drew plenty of attention. There were 17 penalties blown per game from Rounds 1 to 14, including an ill-disciplined Round 11 which saw an alarming 21 penalties per game.
The figure has dropped to an average of just below 15 penalties per game since the call was made to take the focus away from the pedantic penalties prior to Round 15, and it shows.
There has been an average of one extra try scored per game since the change occurred, with average margins also sneaking out by one point. We’ve seen an increase in blow-outs as well, with 12 per cent of the 52 games since the beginning of round 15 being decided by a margin of 30 points or more.
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Comparatively, just six per cent of all games prior saw margins of that size.
BEFORE AND AFTER THE PENALTY CRACKDOWN
| CRACKDOWN (1-14) | POST-CRACKDOWN (15-) | |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 108 | 52 |
| Avg penalties | 17.4 | 14.9 |
| Avg quick PTBs | 27.4 | 28.9 |
| Avg tries | 6.3 | 7.2 |
| Avg offloads | 21.4 | 20.8 |
| Avg margin | 12.2 | 13.2 |
| % games w/ 30+ margin | 6 | 12 |
Few have capitalised on the renewed state of the game as well as the Melbourne Storm. The Victorian club have regained a near impenetrable middle-third since the beginning of round 15 thanks to a game less cluttered by penalties.
The Storm (0.7) are the only team in the competition to have conceded fewer than one try per game through the middle third since the penalty crackdown abated, whereas five teams could boast a similar figure prior to the change (Rabbitohs, Dragons, Panthers, Roosters, Wests Tigers) but no longer do.
A stellar start to the season has come undone for the Wests Tigers in recent months, and their middle third has become much more vulnerable since the change in penalty philosophies. No team had conceded fewer tries per game through the middle than the Wests Tigers (0.6) from Rounds 1 to 14, though that figure has now ballooned out to 2.2 tries per game via that corridor since round 15 - a figure which only the Sea Eagles (2.3) have topped in that time.
WHICH NRL TEAM'S WINNING PERCENTAGE HAS BENEFITTED THE MOST?
| TEAM | RD 1-14 | RD 15-21 | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 62% | 86% | 24% |
| Bulldogs | 23% | 43% | 20% |
| Roosters | 64% | 83% | 19% |
| Broncos | 54% | 71% | 18% |
| Titans | 31% | 43% | 12% |
| Rabbitohs | 71% | 83% | 12% |
| Eels | 21% | 33% | 12% |
| Sea Eagles | 29% | 33% | 5% |
| Raiders | 38% | 43% | 4% |
| Wests Tigers | 50% | 50% | 0% |
| Knights | 43% | 33% | -10% |
| Cowboys | 29% | 17% | -12% |
| Sharks | 64% | 50% | -14% |
| Warriors | 69% | 43% | -26% |
| Dragons | 77% | 43% | -34% |
| Panthers | 77% | 43% | -34% |
Melbourne are the most obvious improvers since the change when it comes to basic win rates, but not far behind them are the Bulldogs, who have bumped up their win rate by 20 percentage points since the penalty blitz came to an end.
The Roosters (+19) and Broncos (+18) are the other big improvers in terms of raw win rates, while the Titans (+12) and Eels (+12) have made things more complicated at the other end of the ladder with their return to a semblance of form.
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Early premiership bolters the Dragons and Panthers have fallen to the wayside in the meantime, each seeing their win rate drop by more than a third. Likewise, the Warriors (-26) have floundered in the new system.
No team has struggled more than the Cowboys, however. The North Queensland side’s 17 per cent win rate since the blitz abated is the lowest of any team in the competition in that period