Two heavy punchers headline UFC 307 in Utah, while the co-feature is a rivalry fight finally taking center stage. Alex Pereira defends the UFC light heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree Jr. on October 5. The event airs on Kayo.
Pereira holds the record for the shortest time (eleven fights) to become a two-division UFC champion. He took out former champions Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka this year. Rountree is on a five-fight win streak, winning four of those fights via knockout. He is just coming off a suspension for testing positive for a banned substance.
The co-main event is a UFC bantamweight title fight between Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena. Pennington is on a six-fight win streak and owns the UFC bantamweight record for most significant strikes landed (1,056) in history. The first woman to win The Ultimate Fighter, Pena beat Amanda Nunes to win gold in 2021 but lost it in a rematch in her last fight in 2022.
The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 307.
WATCH: Pereira vs. Rountree at UFC 307 on Kayo
UFC 307 expert picks and full card predictions
Alex Pereira (c) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. for the UFC light heavyweight title
Pereira lands 5.23 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 63%. "Poatan" struggles on the floor but is quick with his movements. Three straight fights have ended before the third round due to punishing blows to his opponents.
Rountree lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 39%. He competes for the first time in a year after being suspended for failing a drug test.
The fight should not last long at all. The expected ending for the fight is via knockout. The question is, when? Both should start hot but hold back energy as the fight goes on. Pereira should end it in the second round with a shot that cements his status as Fighter of the Year.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via TKO (round two)
Raquel Pennington (c) vs. Julianna Pena for the UFC bantamweight title
Pennington is on a six-fight win streak, landing triple-digit shots during that run. "Rocky" lands 4.14 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 3.29. She has a takedown defense mark of 63%, which could come in handy against Pena, who averages 1.94 landed per 15 minutes.
Pena lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute and has a 47% strike accuracy mark. 2-2 in her last four fights, "The Venezuelan Vixen" last fought two years ago after getting taken down six times by Amanda Nunes. She went 1-1 against "The Lioness," while Pennington lost to Nunes in 2018 after absorbing 124 significant strikes.
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Both competed on The Ultimate Fighter together but never fought. The fight has plenty of bad blood to it. Pennington is defensively sound in a way that can block Pena's attempted takedowns, land crisp shots, and maintain her distance. Will time away affect Pena? The fight will likely go the distance, with one fighter having a clear edge over the other.
Sporting News prediction: Pennington via split decision
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista; Bantamweights
Aldo is a former featherweight champion and current UFC Hall of Famer. He lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 46%. The 38-year-old has gone 4-3 since entering the bantamweight division. He looked like his old self when he took care of Jonathan Martinez.
The 31-year-old Bautista is on a six-fight win streak and lands 5.69 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 2.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing 12 in his last six fights.
Bautista's ground game is impressive, but Aldo's takedown defense (91%) trumps that. While he lost against current champion Merab Dvalishvili, Aldo refused to get brought down 16 times. If that same magic feeling against Dvalishvili and Martinez can transfer over in Utah, Aldo could force Bautista to work harder and longer than he expected.
Sporting News prediction: Aldo via unanimous decision
Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison; Bantamweights
Harrison, the two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, has seven wins via submission and six via knockout. The former PFL champion dominated against former champion Holly Holm, landing 51 significant strikes and submitting "The Preacher's Daughter."
Vieira is ranked second in the UFC's bantamweight rankings. She lands 3.04 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.51 takedowns landed per 15.
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The odds are wide for Harrison against a top contender with a solid ground game. That could be because Harrison could negate her power and bully her on the floor. Harrison is big for her weight class and is well-rounded. Vieira could survive, land a strike or two, and even make it interesting, but Harrison losing would be quite a shock.
Sporting News prediction: Harrison via unanimous decision
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland; Middleweights
Holland, 2-2 in his last four fights, lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 49%. Dolidze, also 2-2, lands 3.13 significant strikes and has an accuracy mark of 42%.
Holland has had quite a run against top-tier fighters. However, he is either on another level in the cage or one of the most frustrating fighters out there. Dolidze can use wrestling to mess with Holland, who has yet to prove much while on the floor. Tests against Phil Hawes, Marvin Vettori, and Anthony Smith led Dolidze here, and he could shine against the colorful Holland.
Sporting News prediction: Dolidze via unanimous decision
Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley; Welterweights
Thompson is a former title contender who is 1-3 in his last four fights. "Wonderboy" lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute, landing triple-digit shots four times in the octagon. Buckley lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute and can strike at any point, as seen by his spinning back kick win against Impa Kasanganay in 2020.
Buckley is rising at welterweight, winning four straight. Thompson has seen better days. He is also susceptible to the takedown, getting dropped 13 times in four fights. Buckley averages 1.69 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing eight in four fights.
Thompson can go with the best of them, but Buckley hits hard. It could be enough to drop Thompson if he lands a hard enough shot. Even taking him to the ground could result in Buckley landing on the floor. The sun may be setting for Thompson following UFC 307.
Sporting News prediction: Buckley via TKO (round two)
Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo; Strawweights
Rodriguez, 1-3 in her last four fights, lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute. She has reached triple-digit strikes three times in her career. Lucindo is 3-1 in the octagon and lands 3.95 significant strikes per minute. She averages 2.23 takedowns landed per minute, landing eight in three fights.
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It could be a fun fight that requires both to land hard shots in the clinch. Who will land the better blows? Lucindo is the favorite for a reason, and her ground game is impressive. When taken to the floor, Rodriguez often feels helpless, which is where Lucindo can thrive.
Sporting News prediction: Lucindo via split decision
Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria; Middleweights
A former kickboxing champion, Almeida is 2-1 in the octagon, landing 4.25 significant strikes per minute. Potieria lands 5.13 significant strikes but absorbs 5.04 per minute. Almeida has been taken down eleven times in the octagon, but it is not believed that Potieria will attempt a takedown.
It was not a good outing for Almeida when he lost against Roman Kopylov the last time he fought. A fight and win against Potieria, who lost against Michel Pereira and Carlos Ulberg, may be the right matchmaking for the Brazilian, looking to prove why he got signed following Dana White's Contender Series.
Sporting News prediction: Almeida via TKO (round one)
Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard; Lightweights
Hernandez is on a two-fight losing streak and has absorbed 4.66 significant strikes per minute. He makes up for it by landing 4.33 significant strikes. Hubbard is 1-1 since making his return on The Ultimate Fighter. "Thud" lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
It wasn't long ago when Hernandez was the cocky fighter who believed he would retire Donald Cerrone. Since then, he has had more losses than wins, making this a fight he needs to win. Hubbard should be the more grounded fighter here. Already a UFC veteran, Hubbard should be able to tire Hernandez out and even inflict some damage on "The Great Ape."
Sporting News prediction: Hubbard via unanimous decision
Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux; Light Heavyweights
Spann is riding a three-fight losing streak. He lands 3.25 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.34 takedowns per 15 minutes. OSP, the master of the Von Flue Choke, is 2-2. He lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.10 takedowns landed.
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Saint Preux looked solid against a big man in Kennedy Nzechukwu, landing 143 significant strikes. He is also deceptive, landing the Von Flue Choke when you least expect it. Spann is the bigger fighter by two inches, which could give him the edge. However, given the recent runs of both, The Sporting News leans more towards OSP to get the job done.
Sporting News prediction: Saint Preux via submission (round two)
Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington; Strawweights
Pennington lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 47%. Her last win, in 2021, saw her land 144 significant strikes. Esparza lands 2.16 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 40%. The former UFC strawweight champion, who last fought in 2022, averages 3.22 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing 16 in her last four fights.
It is a rematch from their Ultimate Fighter days. Both fighters badly need a win, but Esparza, retiring after this, looks to get her hand raised before sailing off into the sunset. A lot is going on in this fight, especially for Esparza. The fight is not expected to be a classic, but both could prove everyone wrong. Pennington's striking should damage Esparza, who could take the former down but may not take advantage.
Sporting News prediction: Pennington via unanimous decision
Tim Means vs. Court McGee; Welterweights
Means lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 49%. McGee lands 4.60 significant strikes and has a strike accuracy mark of 37%. The former is 1-4 in his last five fights, getting dropped four times, while McGee is 2-3 in his previous five, getting dropped twice while landing ten takedowns.
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Means landing for power could stop McGee. However, "The Crusher" does well on the floor, and training in Utah could help with his cardio. The Sporting News believes McGee can avoid Means' shots and tire him out.
Sporting News prediction: McGee via unanimous decision
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