While Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic will no longer be the main event of UFC 295, the card got a boost with two big title fights on November 11 (Nov. 12 in Australia).
Jones, the UFC heavyweight champion, injured himself while training. The UFC then booked an interim UFC heavyweight title fight between top contenders Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall as the co-main event.
Aspinall is 6-1 with the UFC and returned from a torn MCL and meniscus to beat Marcin Tybura. Pavlovich is on a six-fight win streak, all wins via knockout.
The new main event was the old co-main, as Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira fight for the UFC light heavyweight title. Prochazka is a former light heavyweight champion who relinquished the belt due to injury. He hasn’t fought since June 2022. Pereira is a former UFC middleweight champion who competes in his second fight at light heavyweight. He looks to go 3-0 in MSG.
Also on the card, Mackenzie Dern looks to move up in the rankings, as well as Loopy Godinez. Other fighters on the card include Matt Frevola, Jared Gordon, and Roosevelt Roberts.
WATCH: UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira, live on Kayo
The Sporting News breaks down every fight on the UFC 295 card, with some help from Unibet.
UFC 295 predictions, best bets
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
For the UFC light heavyweight title
Per Unibet, Alex Pereira is the $1.82 favourite, while Jiri Prochazka is the $1.98 underdog.
Get ready for some violence, folks. Both are known for their power in just a short time in the octagon. Pereira averages 5.23 significant strikes landed per minute, which would usually trump other fighters. However, Prochazka trumps him with a 5.77 mark. The Brazilian has a slight edge in strike defence with 51 per cent compared to 40 per cent for Prochazka. However, both leave themselves open to shots, especially Prochazka, who leaves his chin in the air.
Both are about even when it comes to takedown defence, which may not play a factor in the fight. Glover Teixeira put Prochazka down five times in their 2022 Fight of the Year, but Prochazka did submit the legend. Pereira's weakness is on the ground, as seen in his first MSG fight against Andreas Michailidis. Jan Blachowicz took him down three times in his light heavyweight debut.
These warriors apply pressure in their fights, as it is the perfect striker vs. striker matchup. Will one rely on kickboxing over the other? Can Pereira’s power transfer over at light heavyweight? Who will have better conditioning through five rounds? Will the fight even last that long?
MORE: What does the future hold for Premier Boxing Champions, Bellator?
The Sporting News believes the fight won’t go past three rounds. Following a 17-month absence, Prochazka badly wants the win. However, Pereira, Mr. MSG, who already won a title in “The World’s Most Famous Arena,” has insane power that may be too much to handle. Expect history to be made in MSG in what could be a violent Fight of the Night.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via KO/TKO ($2.25)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
For the interim UFC heavyweight title
Per Unibet, Tom Aspinall is the $1.83 favourite, while Sergei Pavlovich is the $1.98 underdog.
Fight fans may have lost Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, but it gained a potential hard-hitting affair between Aspinall and Pavlovich. Can it deliver on just two weeks’ notice? Both land for power, with Aspinall landing 7.65 significant strikes per minute and Pavlovich landing 8.72. Aspinall has the edge in strike accuracy (66 per cent to 49 per cent) and has a better strike defence (65 per cent to 57 per cent).
The Brit understands the assignment in front of him, as Pavlovich is ready to go in there and strike him down. What Aspinall has to do is stop the Russian, whether by leg kicks or by tackling him down to the ground. Aspinall averages 3.70 takedowns landed per 15 minutes but might not even try to go that route. If he does, it may be game over right away. Refreshed, Aspinall is a man on a mission.
Like the main event, this may not last long. Pavlovich via strikes makes sense, but Aspinall should get the win here. Expect fireworks.
Sporting News prediction: Aspinall via submission ($4.90)
Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade
Strawweights
Per Unibet, Mackenzie Dern is the $1.48 favourite, while Jessica Andrade is the $2.65 underdog.
It is a unique matchup, as Dern is on her way to becoming a contender while Andrade is on a three-fight losing streak. However, the former strawweight champion in Andrade can still strike with the best of them, landing 6.68 significant strikes per minute. The Brazilian has a 50 per cent accuracy mark and a 54 per cent strike defence mark. She landed 231 significant strikes against Lauren Murphy in January 2023, her last win (this will be his fifth fight in 2023). Meanwhile, Dern lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute, with 126 against the durable Angela Hill.
MORE: How to bet on combat sports
The ground will be where things get interesting. Andrade averages 2.54 takedowns landed and has a takedown defence mark of 70 per cent. That defence has to be bulletproof, as Dern has a submission average of 1.5 attempted per 15 minutes. Dern can tire you out on the floor and get the win via decision, or she can grab your arm and force you to submit.
If Andrade can’t land the perfect strike against Dern, it’s hard to imagine she can withstand her ground game. With plenty of emotion in this fight from outside forces, Dern will be motivated.
Sporting News prediction: Dern via submission ($2.35)
Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Lightweights
Per Unibet, Benoit Saint-Denis is the $1.40 favourite, while Matt Frevola is the $2.95 underdog.
The lone Long Islander on the New York card, Frevola is on a three-fight win streak, landing 3.72 significant strikes per minute. "The Steamrolla" also has a strike defence mark of 59 per cent. Saint-Denis lands 5.59 significant strikes per minute, with 101 against Thiago Moises in September. “God of War” also has a strike defence mark of 44 per cent.
On the floor is when things get tricky. Saint-Denis averages 4.72 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing 11 in his last four fights. If he takes you down, it’s game over. Frevola has a 42 oer cent takedown defence mark and averages 2.26 takedowns. It doesn’t appear he will go for the takedown. Who will make the first mistake in this game of chess? The hometown hero may get the surprise upset here in a fight that may not last long.
Sporting News prediction: Frevola via TKO ($4.50)
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
Featherweights
Per Unibet, Pat Sabatini is the $1.82 favourite, while Diego Lopes is the $2 underdog.
A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Tang Soo Do, Sabatini lands 1.95 significant strikes per minute and has a 59 per cent strike accuracy mark. He also averages 3.83 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with 13 in his last four fights. Lopes has 12 wins via submission and eight via knockout. He has attempted multiple submissions in the octagon, but was taken down four times against Movsar Evloev.
While there is an unknown factor in the octagon with Lopes, Sabatini shouldn’t expect surprises when he enters the cage.
Sporting News prediction: Sabatini via decision ($3.85)
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa
Flyweights
Per Unibet, Steve Erceg is the $1.52 favourite, while Alessandro Costa is the $2.55 underdog.
Erceg has landed 3.60 significant strikes per minute in his short time in the octagon and averages 3.00 takedowns landed. Six of the last seven finishes from “Astro Boy” have come via submission. Costa lands 3.82 significant strikes per minute and has a strike defence mark of 63 per cent. He fights on short notice, a common theme in his time in the octagon.
Costa has a solid takedown defence, but can he survive Erceg's ground game? The Sporting News believes Erceg will get the job done this time around.
Sporting News prediction: Erceg via decision ($2.85)
Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez
Strawweights
Per Unibet, Loopy Godinez is the $1.57 favourite, while Tabatha Ricci is the $2.40 underdog.
MORE: Ranked: The 25 best MMA fighters under the age of 25
In her UFC debut, Ricci was beat by Manon Fiorot and has since won three in a row, landing 17 takedowns and lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute. She averages 4.23 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a takedown defence mark of 66 per cent. Godinez lands 4.03 significant strikes per 15 minutes and has a strike defence mark of 62 per cent. She averages 3.82 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and landed 15 in five fights.
Both are forces to be reckoned with at strawweight. Loopy is a better boxer run and has a solid wrestling game. She has also worked past previous troubles to make herself an all-around elite fighter, which spells trouble for Ricci.
Sporting News prediction: Godinez via decision ($2.08)
Mateusz Rębecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts
Lightweights
Per Unibet, Mateusz Rębecki is the $1.15 favourite, while Roosevelt Roberts is the $5.80 underdog.
Roberts replaces Nurullo Aliev. He is a two-time Dana White's Contender Series participant, joining in 2018 and impressing in the recent veteran vs. young guns series. While he lost in the semi-finals, the UFC kept his number. Outside of DWCS, Roberts is on a three-fight losing streak in the octagon but on a two-fight win streak. He lands 3.14 significant strikes per minute in the octagon and has a 53 per cent strike defence mark.
Rebecki, another former DWCS alum, has won two fights in the octagon, landing 5.57 significant strikes per minute. Overall, he has nine wins via knockout and six via submission.
Roberts can present a unique challenge, but Rebecki, who was on the way to beating Aliev, may be as impressive against the veteran.
Sporting News prediction: Rębecki via TKO ($2.65)
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Lightweights
Per Unibet, Viacheslav Borshchev is the $1.83 favourite, while Nazim Sadykhov is the $1.98 underdog.
Borshchev lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute and has a 57 per cent strike accuracy mark. Sadykhov lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute and has a 52 per cent accuracy mark. Sadykhov has the edge on the floor by averaging 0.52 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Borshchev has a takedown defence of 35 per cent but has been taken down 20 times in his last three fights.
A sharp striker, Borshchev can punish his opponent. However, he hasn’t managed to adapt on the floor. If Sadykhov can grab hold of him and drag him down, it may be a tough night at the office for Borshchev.
Sporting News prediction: Sadykhov via submission ($4)
WATCH: UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira, live on Kayo
Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen
Lightweights
Per Unibet, Jared Gordon is the $1.50 favourite, while Mark Madsen is the $2.55 underdog.
Queens' Gordon is 1-2 with one no-contest in his last four fights, his last contest a NC after being knocked unconscious following a clash of heads. "Flash" lands 5.32 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 57 per cent. Madsen lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 47 per cent. Madsen has a four-inch reach advantage but didn't fight for a year.
On the floor, Madsen has the edge in takedowns landing per 15 minutes, averaging 3.09 (2.01 for Gordon). Gordon landed three in a controversial loss against Paddy Pimblett but was taken down seven times against Grant Dawson. Madsen landed eight against Austin Hubbard in 2020 and three against Vinc Pichel in 2022.
The gas tank of Madsen is questionable, especially after taking a year off. Gordon should get back to his winning ways by tiring out Madsen.
Sporting News prediction: Gordon via decision ($2.32)
John Castaneda vs. Kang Kyung-ho
Bantamweights
Per Unibet, John Castaneda is the $1.70 favourite, while Kang Kyung-ho is the $2.16 underdog.
A former Dana White's Contender Series alum, Castaneda lands 4.24 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 47 per cent. "Sexy Mexi” has won eight fights via knockout and seven via submission. With the UFC since 2013 but with a gap in his career due to military service, Kang lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 49 per cent.
On a two-fight win streak, Kang has done well against stiff competition compared to Castaneda. However, if Castaneda provides a strong takedown defence, he can try and tire out Kang. In a potentially even fight, Castaneda may be able to edge out a win.
Sporting News prediction: Castaneda via decision ($2.65)
Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas
Flyweights
Per Unibet, Joshua Van is the $1.43 favourite, while Kevin Borjas is the $2.85 underdog.
Van has five wins via knockout, and in the octagon, "Fearless" landed 120 significant strikes against Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Borjas has eight victories via knockout and landed 87 significant strikes in his Dana White's Contender Series debut in August. The latter, with a three-inch reach advantage, was taken down five times, which may be something to look into.
MORE: How many titles has Alex Pereira won in his career?
Borjas has a chance to put Van to sleep, but Van appears to be the more complete fighter here.
Sporting News prediction: Van via submission ($6.10)
Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers
Featherweights
Per Unibet, Jamall Emmers is the $1.38 favourite, while Dennis Buzukja is the $3.05 underdog.
Emmers, a Dana White’s Contender Series alum, lands 4.95 significant strikes per minute, while Buzukja lands 3.29. Emmers averages 1.98 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing seven in his last four fights. Buzukja, another alum of DWCS, averages 1.00 takedowns landed, with three in his short time in the octagon. However, he has been taken down five times in two fights.
Emmers didn't show much against Pat Sabatini before a heel hook ended the fight, and he seemingly was robbed against Jack Jenkins. The skills are there to show he can lead a fight. With that said Emmers should get the much-needed win.
