Baseball fans who feel a general sense of uneasiness heading into the 2023 season may be experiencing the growing sense of consternation coming out of the Bronx, as the Yankees begin their season with three starting pitchers -- two of whom have been acquired within the past calendar year -- out of the rotation.
Luis Severino and Carlos Rodon are beginning this year on the injured list, while Frankie Montas could miss most of the year with a shoulder injury. Adding to the injury burden is that Lou Trivino and Tommy Kahnle are both hurt as well, while Scott Effross is going to miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Of these injured players, Rodon, Montas, Trivino, and Effross were all acquired at or after the trade deadline last year. While injuries are by their nature unpredictable, it doesn't reflect especially well on Brian Cashman, particularly when Montas himself said he wasn't healthy when the Yankees acquired him from the Athletics at last year's deadline.
With all of that being said: The Yankees pitching staff is going to be fine this season, and Yankees fans needn't get in a tizzy over missing Rodon and Severino to start the year. The New York pitching staff is deep enough to weather these early-season injuries, and although the situation isn't ideal, it isn't going to slow down the Yankees' start to the season.
MORE: Injury timeline, return date for Yankees SP Carlos Rodon
Yankees rotation injury updates
Carlos Rodon
The player Yankee fans are going to be most concerned about is Carlos Rodon, whom Cashman and company signed to a six-year, $162 million contract this offseason.
Rodon was outstanding for the Giants last season, posting a 2.88 ERA and a 14-8 record. The Yankees rotation, which was fifth in baseball last year with 897 strikeouts, added a pitcher in the 86th percentile in whiff percentage.
However, Rodon is starting the year on the IL as he recovers from a forearm strain in early March. He most recently threw a bullpen session on March 27, and there isn't a clear timeline for his return. He has said he pitched through a similar injury with the Giants last season, and that worked itself out in about a month.
The prognosis on Rodon is he'll make his debut with the Yankees in late April or early May. However, the Yankees aren't going to rush back their biggest offseason acquisition.
Luis Severino
Make no mistake: Severino is a Yankees mainstay, and they want him back just as badly as Rodon.
Unfortunately, to have Severino in their rotation, the Yankees have always needed a stable sixth man. He's been frequently injured, missing time in 2016, 2019, all of 2020 after Tommy John surgery, nearly all of 2021 recovering from that surgery, and bits of 2022 with a lat injury.
He begins this year on the IL with another lat injury as he tries to work his way back. He said Sunday "Hopefully this is it and if I miss, even three or four starts, after that, if I can be good for the rest of the season, I’d be blessed," per The New York Post.
That's an inexact timeline, of course. But a late April-early May return is likely for Severino as well based on that limited information.
MORE: Injury timeline, return date for Yankees SP Luis Severino
Frankie Montas
The injury to Montas is, at this point, more of a recovery.
The 2022 midseason acquisition had shoulder surgery in the offseason, and it was initially thought to sideline him for all of 2023.
It appears Montas has, if nothing else, a chance to pitch this season. He was shut down for 12 weeks after his Feb. 21 surgery, which means he won't be throwing until May. From there, he'll have to do light throwing, bullpens, live batters, and likely a rehab stint.
With all of that, a return before August is unlikely. He'll be a case to monitor throughout the season.
Breaking down the Yankees rotation
That is a lot of bad news to lead off with, but here's the underscore: Yankees fans don't have to freak out. The pitching staff is going to be fine. Here's a quick glimpse of what the five-man rotation could look like to start the season, along with their 2022 stats:
| Player | Starts | Record | IP | ERA | Ks | BBs | AVG against | ERA+ |
| Gerrit Cole | 33 | 13-8 | 200 2/3 | 3.50 | 257 | 50 | .209 | 111 |
| Nestor Cortes | 28 | 12-4 | 158 1/3 | 2.44 | 163 | 38 | .189 | 159 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 3 | 0-2 | 11 2/3 | 4.63 | 14 | 2 | .296 | -- |
| Domingo German | 14 | 2-5 | 70 2/3 | 3.61 | 56 | 18 | .238 | 108 |
| Jhony Brito | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
The initial plan for the Yankees was likely some variation of Cole, Rodon, Cortes, and Severino with either Schmidt or German to round it out. Despite Schmidt's struggles as a starter last year — particularly that ridiculous batting average against — the Yankees have the utmost hope in Schmidt rising to the occasion.
“As far as our rotation … Clarke Schmidt’s my dog," Cole said in the spring, per Empire Sports Media.
Manager Aaron Boone is similarly high on Schmidt, explicitly singling out his cutter.
“One of the things we’re seeing that’s encouraging and exciting early on in camp here is his cutter and how it looks," Boone said. "And I think can be a difference maker for him especially against left-handed hitters."
German makes the rotation as a perfectly acceptable stopgap for the Yankees, and he's been getting better as spring goes on. While not a shutdown option for the Yankees, he should be fine in the fourth spot.
Back-ending the rotation is Jhony Brito, with whom the Yankees have become enamored through spring. Brito has thrown 13 innings with a 2.08 ERA, his WHIP is below 1.000, and he has 10 strikeouts to no walks.
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Brito spent last season in Double- and Triple-A with the Yankees, and he's earned this spot.
The top two spots are, naturally, anchored by Cole and Cortes. The latter will slot down one day as he recovers from a minor hamstring injury, meaning Schmidt will pitch the second game of the season.
Why the Yankees rotation will be fine
The Yankees enter this season shorthanded (or short-armed, as it were) to be sure. Missing Rodon, Severino, and Montas is a blow to the rotation.
However, while the best ability is usually said to be availability, the perception of Cole tests that theory. His version of a down year is a 3.50 ERA in which he had a league-leading 33 starts, and yet he's talked about as a pitcher on the decline. Even if he's at the tail end of his prime entering his age-32 season, he's an ace in the league, and the Yankees are more than happy having him atop the rotation. Then there's Cortes, who might not put up the incredible numbers he did last year, but showed he has more than enough juice to get through a season. If he stays healthy, that one-two punch should continue to be strong.
There will be hemming and hawing about the Yankees trading Jordan Montgomery at last year's deadline and letting Jameson Taillon walk to the Cubs. While those moves are valid to criticize, particularly when dealing with injury-prone players, it's part of the game.
However, most importantly, this is temporary. If Brito and Germán struggle at the back of the rotation, reinforcements are on the way. The MLB season is long, and missing Severino and Rodon for a month isn't a death knell for a rotation that does have two very good pitchers heading it up.
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The Yankees begin their season against the Giants, who will have Logan Webb on the mound on Opening Day. They then have three games against the defending NL champion Phillies.
The Yankees have the offensive firepower to withstand some early pitching struggles, finishing second in the league in runs per game last season. With that being said, the order does have holes. They'll want to be back at full strength as soon as possible. In a 162-game season, however, there's no need to panic if they start things a little conservatively with pitchers they'll want pitching into October and, if all goes well, early November.
