For the second straight year, we get to watch an elite MLB hitter chase history. Just not the kind you're thinking. But it does involve Shohei Ohtani. Of course it does.
While Ohtani is on pace to challenge Aaron Judge's single-season American League home run record of 62, set just last year, that's just part of it. As sexy as a second straight, non-steroid 60-homer season would be, Ohtani has a chance to succeed in one area in which Judge fell short: 400 total bases.
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No MLB hitter has reached that tally since 2001 (Barry Bonds, Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Luis Gonzalez), and no AL player has done it since 1978 (Jim Rice). But Ohtani appears primed to give it a strong go in 2023.
(The single-season record is Babe Ruth's 457 in 1921.)
As I've written multiple times, total bases isn't a shiny stat, but it probably should be — because the total tells us a lot about a player's offensive value. The higher the total, naturally, the higher the value. Higher totals tend to mean lots of extra-base hits, while lower totals tend to mean lots of singles. Think of it as a less-popular-but-still-useful cousin of OPS.
In Ohtani's case, we really don't need another stat to convince us of his greatness. But with other players, it's a useful tool to help gauge overall production.
To review, total bases is calculated like this: Singles + 2x Doubles + 3x Triples + 4x Home Runs. It doesn't consider walks, hit by pitch or any other method of reaching base.
Entering play Monday, through 104 games, Ohtani has 266 total bases, putting him on pace for 408. This is his breakdown: 55 singles, 17 doubles, seven triples and 39 homers. That's more extra-base hits than singles, by the way.
Ohtani's 266 total bases are two more than Judge's tally after 104 games last season. A mild late-season homer cooldown kept Judge from crossing the 400 threshold (he finished with 391), but Ohtani could be in a better position even if his dinger pace slows, thanks to his high number of triples. A few more three-baggers could easily bridge the gap should Ohtani go a little longer than usual between homers down the stretch. Judge, on the other hand, had zero triples in 2022.
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Ohtani's career high in total bases is 318, set in his all-time-great 2021 MVP season, and he certainly figures to destroy that number this season, even if he falls short of 400. Remember, in 2021 he hit 46 homers, 26 doubles and eight triples — all totals he looks likely to best in 2023.
Should Ohtani reach or pass 400 total bases, it's likely to get lost in the praise of his homer chase and the general magnificence he displays as baseball's only true two-way player in more than a century.
For as much history as Ohtani seems to make, 400 total bases wouldn't be a red-letter, remember-where-you-were feat. But that doesn't mean it won't be one heck of an accomplishment.
