It's time to get serious about the Orioles. Just how serious we should be, and just how serious the Orioles should be about themselves, isn't quite clear. But Baltimore is no longer a throwaway, second-division team in a constant state of rebuild — at least through their first 89 games of 2022.
Yes, the Orioles are now officially a winning team again, thanks to a semi-shocking 10-game winning streak that has them just two games out of a playoff berth. But the team isn't just on a hot streak. The Orioles have been good for a while — they're 31-20 since May 19 — and their turnaround has been due in large part to their elite defense. Yes, you read that right.
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Entering play Thursday, according to Sports Info Solutions, the Orioles rank second in the American League in defensive runs saved, behind only the Yankees. Their 47 DRS, tied with the Blue Jays, is also the third-best mark in all of MLB.
Good defense is a new development in Baltimore.
Before this season, the Orioles had been a bad-to-terrible defensive club in recent years. Last season, the team ranked 24th in defensive runs saved with minus-40. In 2019, the Orioles ranked 28th, with minus-53. In 2018, they were 28th yet again with minus-42.
Their most recent positive DRS season came in the COVID-shorted 2020 campaign, when they totaled the grand sum of one defensive run saved.
So what's changed? It's not that the team is making fewer errors; they've committed the third-most in baseball. But they've gotten much better at getting out of jams. It helps that they've turned the third-most double plays in baseball, and their 77 twin killings is best in the American League.
But it's been about more than timely ground balls and sound execution. The Orioles have also gotten standout defensive seasons from several key positions.
Jorge Mateo leads all MLB shortstops with 11 defensive runs saved and is tied for fourth-most among all positions. Third baseman Ramon Urias' eight DRS ranks second in the AL behind only the Yankees' Josh Donaldson. Cedric Mullins' seven DRS in center field is tied for second-best in the league. In left, Austin Hays' four DRS isn't necessarily a flashy total, but is nonetheless among the best in the AL. Even rookie catcher Adley Rutschman has already accumulated four DRS behind the plate.
Basically, the Orioles are making plays all over the field when they used to just ... not.
As a result, they allow fewer runs to score, which has created more opportunities to win.
Two quick examples along those lines:
— The Orioles have shut out opponents eight times and have six relievers with at least 30 innings and an ERA of 2.55 or lower. That will always play.
— They have eight walk-off wins this season, including three straight during their current winning streak. It was their second time this season with three walk-offs in the same week. It's not how many hits you get, but when you get 'em.
The odd thing about the 2022 Orioles is that none of their team stats stands out. There's nothing that screams, "This is a winning team."
Their .683 OPS ranks 27th in the majors. Their 371 runs scored ranks 21st. Their 89 homers is in the bottom half of the league. Their 3.90 team ERA is slightly better than league average and their 1.285 WHIP is just 20th best. They've given up the second-most hits in the AL, trailing only the Royals.
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Their highest-WAR player is Cedric Mullins at 2.7. But they also have 13 other players with at least 1.0 WAR. In other words, they're getting just enough from everyone to win. And winning they are, even though they probably shouldn't be.
And don't forget: Baltimore's 2022 player payroll is about $30.3 million — the lowest in MLB — which is way less than the Mets' Max Scherzer makes by himself ($43.3 million). It's not exactly "Moneyball," but it's curious.
It's been a while since there's been a winner in Baltimore, and nobody expected that to change in 2022. And why would they?
The 2021 Orioles had losing streaks of 14 and 19 games. Their longest winning streak was three games, accomplished six times. Since 2018, Orioles fans have endured 368 losses in 546 chances. That's a winning percentage of just .326. In its three most recent non-COVID seasons, the team averaged 111 losses per year.
So, yes, 2022 has been the most pleasant of surprises for Baltimore.
Is their output sustainable? Perhaps not with the current roster, but that's why the trade deadline exists — and they should definitely be more buyer than seller. The Orioles as buyers would be a refreshing change of pace, and would show their emerging young core — not to mention their fans — that the team is actually serious about winning. They've got a good thing going, and it would be unwise to mess with it. It's hard to argue at this point about Baltimore as a legit contender.
And with just a couple of weeks until the deadline, and with a playoff race that's still wide open, the Orioles have good reason to be active.
