Chances are Giancarlo Stanton won’t play his entire career in a Marlins uniform.
He could if he wanted to, of course. The 13-year, $325 million extension he signed in November 2014 gave him that security — no-trade protection is a wonderful thing — but 13 years is a very long time with one team. Stanton has an opt-out after the 2020 season, and he would certainly be willing to waive that no-trade protection if it meant being traded to a contender of his choice.
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Speaking of that, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan wrote about that possibility Tuesday morning. Passan reported that Stanton has cleared waivers — not surprising, considering teams would have been on the hook for the entirety of his $295 million remaining on the deal if the Marlins just let him go — and that means they can deal him at any time the rest of this season. He's not likely to be traded in the next couple weeks (to be eligible for a postseason roster this year, he'd have to join his new team by the end of August), but clearing waivers means it's a possibility. And if not now, this offseason or next spring, or next July or next offseason and so on and so forth.
Teams are interested, of course. That’s a lot of money, but Stanton is an elite slugger on the biggest home-run tear of his career. He hit his 43rd home run of the season on Monday night, breaking the Marlins’ franchise record, and has 93 RBIs, to go with a 1.014 OPS. Obviously, no team would be looking at Stanton as just a stretch-run pickup, but the point is he’s playing as well as ever, which means his value is as high as ever.
So which teams might be interested? Let’s look at five possibilities …
Yankees
Imagine, for a moment, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge hitting back to back in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup for the next six or seven years. That’s a terrifying thought for fans of other AL East teams, but it’s an idea that has to have Yankees fans salivating.
The Bronx Bombers, indeed.
Most in the industry agree that the Yankees have long been thought of as prime contenders to land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, two young superstars who will hit free agency after the 2018 season. Both will command contracts of at least 10 years and $300 million, with Harper probably pushing $400 million (or more). By comparison, Stanton’s $295 million guarantee isn’t ridiculous, relatively speaking.
How would that money fit? New York’s long-term payroll situation isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible. In terms of guaranteed money, they only have four players under contract after 2018 — Aroldis Chapman (through 2021), Masahiro Tanaka (through 2020), Jacoby Ellsbury (through 2020) and Starlin Castro (through 2019). If Ellsbury has a 2018 like his 2017 (he’s been awful), though, he won’t be on the roster in 2019.
Giants
In his column, Passan mentioned that the Giants have had conversations about Stanton. Adding Stanton to the Giants lineup for the next decade would obviously be a huge improvement; Brandon Belt is the only hitter with more than 12 homers this year. It’s a small sample size, but Stanton has hit well in San Francisco in his career — nine homers and a 1.048 OPS in 27 games.
The Giants have a bit of a payroll logjam, though. Only five teams have a 2017 payroll higher than their $188 million payroll, and six guys are guaranteed between $14 million and $22 million in 2020 (Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Belt, Mark Melancon and Johnny Cueto, if he decides not to opt out, which seems likely). To make any deal happen, the Marlins would either have to send a lot of cash along in the deal, or take a contract or two off San Francisco’s hands.
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Cardinals
The Cardinals are clearly at a crossroads when it comes to the long-term look of their lineup. They don’t have a middle-of-the-lineup thumper — Dexter Fowler, the guy they gave a ton of money last offseason to hit leadoff, has been batting clean-up lately — and once-promising youngsters Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Aledmys Diaz have struggled so much that they’ve been sent to the minors this year. The Cardinals didn’t do anything at the July 31 non-waiver deadline, which is understandable. The changes this franchise probably needs to make are more big-picture changes, which feels like an offseason process.
The Cardinals have money. They have lots and lots of money (they’re 15th in 2017 payroll). They can add Stanton’s contract if they feel he’s the star slugger they need in the middle of the lineup. On the other hand, they know the dangers of giving lots of money to sluggers late in their career as well as any team. They opted against giving Albert Pujols the giant contract he wanted, and they’ve watched him become a shell of his former self with the Angels. Pujols, though, was 32 in his first season with the Angels. Stanton will be 28 to start next season, and that’s a big difference.
Braves
The Braves have been steamrolling toward legitimate contention for a couple of years now, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they use their stable of prospects or their ability to take on a big contract (they’re basically running out a bunch of cost-controlled youngsters in 2018-19 at this point) to make a big splash. Stanton could be that guy. Obviously the Marlins would probably prefer to send Stanton out of the division, but if the Braves offer the best return (combo of prospects and money), that should be more important, though it’s impossible to know what Miami will value at this point. A middle of the order combo of Freddie Freeman and Giancarlo Stanton would be kind of amazing.
Phillies
The Phillies were mentioned as a possible suitor for Stanton, and that does make sense. They’re a big-market team with a bare-bones payroll (22nd in the majors this year) and a roster/farm system full of promising youngsters. Stanton would fit well, if the Phillies front-office types decide it’s worth taking on Stanton’s deal. As with the Braves, though, the same-division thing could be a minor sticking point, but not a deal-breaker.
