Let’s entertain what feels like a crazy thought, for just a moment.
The Braves could actually be legitimate playoff contenders in 2017. Yeah, I know. Humor me.
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Back when they were announcing their controversial plans to ditch Turner Field — which was just christened in 1997 — for a shiny new stadium (SunTrust Park) in the suburbs, they talked about undertaking a rebuilding process that would have them back in contention for the 2017 season.
Watching them in 2015, though, when they won a meager 67 games (only two teams in the majors won fewer contests) and for most of 2016, when they won only 68 games (only the Twins won fewer contests), the idea of this Atlanta franchise being a contender in its first season out in Cobb County seemed like wishful thinking, at best.
But is it really that hard to imagine?
Late in the 2016 season, this sure looked like a franchise that had turned the proverbial corner. With an admittedly arbitrary starting point, they went 24-14 (a .632 winning percentage) in their final 38 games of the season. In that same stretch, only the Mets (.667) and Cubs (.641) won at a higher clip in the NL. They rattled off a seven-game winning streak in mid-September that included five wins against the Nationals and Mets, two teams that made the playoffs.
Now, I know that a strong finish one year is no guarantee of a season full of success the next season. But, you’ve probably noticed, the Braves have been all over the rumor mill this offseason.
They’ve been connected to a potential Chris Sale trade. They’ve been connected to a potential Chris Archer trade. They’ve been connected to a potential Sonny Gray trade. They’ve been connected to free agent Jose Bautista. They’ve been connected to free agent Jason Castro. They’ve been connected to a potential Brian McCann trade.
Braves are aggressively swapping offers for starting pitchers. Rival officials think Braves and Astros will add the most help this winter.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 16, 2016
At this point, it would be rather stunning if the Braves don't make a major move.
And, of course, they’ve already signed over-40 wonders Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey to give their rotation a massive shot of age and veteran wisdom.
Suddenly, you’re looking at a rotation that starts with staff ace Julio Tehran, who had a 3.21 ERA and a 4.07 K/BB ratio in 30 starts last season. He’ll be just 26 when 2017 starts. Colon and Dickey are locked into the rotation to start the season, and the Braves have a plethora of talented youngsters to fill out the rotation.
Mike Foltynewicz had a 4.31 ERA in 22 starts for Atlanta last season. He’s just 25. Matt Wisler (24), Aaron Blair (24) and Williams Perez (25) all made at least 11 starts with the big club last year, and though their ERAs trended ugly, the important thing for the Braves was the experience they got at the top level, not the numbers they posted.
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Those guys are just the tip of the iceberg, too. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Atlanta No. 1 on his February 2016 ranking of the top farm systems in baseball, and seven of his top-10 Braves prospects were pitchers. Those young arms also present legitimate hope (in the form of trade bait) that the Braves could actually land a guy like Sale, or a guy like Archer, or a guy like Gray.
The White Sox are going to demand a massive return if they’re going to trade Sale — who has five consecutive top-six AL Cy Young finishes and three years left on his deal — and the Braves are one of the few franchises with the depth to pull off that kind of trade without completely depleting their system. Same thing with the Rays and Archer, and to a lesser extent, the A’s with Gray.
Foltynewicz, Wisler, Blair or Perez could be dealt, and the same thing goes for kids in the minors, top prospects such as Tyrell Jenkins, Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Joey Wentz, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka or Touki Toussant. There are other pitching prospects who will be intriguing to clubs, too. Seriously, the Braves are loaded with youngsters who will eventually make MLB rotations, whether in Atlanta or elsewhere.
It’s not a stretch to see their start-of-2017 rotation looking something like this …
1. Julio Teheran
2. Chris Sale/Chris Archer/Sonny Gray
3. Bartolo Colon
4. Mike Foltynewicz/Matt Wisler/Aaron Blair
5. R.A. Dickey/Josh Collmenter
Julio Teheran (Getty Images)
That’s pretty solid. And should any of those guys get injured, there are reinforcements ready to step into the mix. In the meantime, those potential reinforcements could work out of the bullpen or in the minors to get more starting seasoning.
There’s enough depth in the farm system, too, to possibly bring McCann back home in a trade with the Yankees. That might not look likely, but it’s possible. They have to do something at catcher. If not McCann, maybe they sign Castro — who is an excellent pitch framer — to handle the primary backstop duties.
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The Braves are set at several positions.
All-Star/MVP candidate Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base. Former No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson hit .302 in 38 games in the majors last season; he’ll be at shortstop. Ender Incarte is an outstanding defensive center fielder fresh off a Gold Glove season, and he’s flanked by Matt Kemp (12 homers and an .855 OPS in 56 games with Atlanta last year) in left field and the ever-reliable Nick Markakis in right field.
Adonis Garcia is the third baseman, though the Braves could probably upgrade there if the opportunity arose (some fans are calling for the club to sign free agent Justin Turner, but that might be a pipe dream). At some point next year, elite prospect Ozzie Albies is expected to take over at second base (his 2016 season ended with a fractured elbow in early September).
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So their position structure could look like this after Albies returns …
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Dansby Swanson
3B Adonis Garcia
CF Ender Incarte
LF Matt Kemp
RF Nick Markakis
C Brian McCann/Jason Castro
That’s pretty solid. Now, is that enough to push past both the Mets and Nationals in the NL East? Nah, those are really good teams.
But is that possible rotation/lineup good enough to get into the 84- to 88-win range? Yeah, probably. And that gets them in the playoff conversation in their first season in Cobb County — just as they've said all along.
