MLB teams' manipulation of top prospects' service time was one of the biggest issues for the players' union when negotiating the most recent collective bargaining agreement in 2022.
The practice, which has vexed MLB players and fans alike, has delayed top young players -- especially on certain teams -- from opening the season in the majors, much to the dismay of fans looking to see the future.
A measure in the new CBA seems to have addressed that issue: the Prospect Promotion Incentive, which is designed to prompt teams to bring players up sooner. The results became immediately apparent in 2022. Julio Rodríguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Jeremy Peña, Spencer Torkelson, Bryson Stott, and Hunter Greene all started the season on their respective MLB rosters, and Adley Rutschman likely would have as well had injury not kept him sidelined for Opening Day.
In 2023, it looks like that's going to become a trend. This season is going to see Corbin Carroll, Anthony Volpe, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Walker, and Miguel Vargas on Opening Day rosters. While it isn't the MLB debut for Henderson, Vargas, or Carroll, it's still significant to see them called up for the 26-man roster on Opening Day.
So, what is it about the PPI that has made teams change their tune about players needing to "work on their defense" or similar justifications deployed in the past? It comes down to capital. Players who win Rookie of the Year earn their team an amateur draft pick "after the first round," and second- or third-place finishers earn an international pick.
MORE: Top prospects to watch for every MLB team in 2023
However, there are plenty of other ins and outs. Here's everything there is to know about the Prospect Promotion Incentive.
What players are eligible for MLB's Prospect Promotion Incentive?
The reason we're mostly seeing highly touted prospects get promoted is because only players on specific Top 100 lists can earn their teams picks.
Players must be Top 100 in two of the lists compiled by MLB.com, Baseball America or ESPN to qualify.
They also must be legitimate rookies, which means they have 60 days or fewer of MLB service.
Four of MLB.com's Top 10 — Henderson, Carroll, Walker, and Volpe — are going to be on their rosters on Opening Day. Others, such as Francisco Álvarez of the Mets or Andrew Painter of the Phillies, might not be far behind.
FAGAN: Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker's strong springs have card prices surging
What must players do to earn the Prospect Promotion Incentive?
Players can reward their teams with picks in a few different ways.
The first and most obvious is to win Rookie of the Year. Julio Rodríguez earned the Mariners the No. 29 pick in the 2023 draft by winning Rookie of the Year as a highly touted prospect. Michael Harris II, however, didn't qualify for the Braves. He didn't spend enough time on the Atlanta roster and wasn't featured on two of the three required preseason Top 100 lists.
Harris did, however, accrue a full year of service, as Rookie of the Year winners are guaranteed that per the current CBA.
Players who earn second or third in Rookie of the Year voting earn their teams a pick in the international draft.
There are other ways to get picks. If a player finishes top three in either MVP or Cy Young voting, a tall order, he will also earn his team a pick after the first round. Players finishing fourth or fifth in Cy Young voting also earn an international pick.
The reason only Rodríguez earned a pick for his team is he's the only player who these stipulations apply to who spent the minimum of 172 days on the roster.
MORE: Sporting News experts pick division winners, awards, World Series champ
How does MLB service time work?
MLB fans like to throw out the term "service time manipulation," but it's important to truly understand what it is.
The MLB contract structure was difficult to touch on in the CBA. The MLBPA couldn't make any headway in the team control conversation, which is as follows during the early part of a player's career:
- Years 1-3: Team control
- Years 4-6: Arbitration
With that being said, it isn't that clear-cut. The common practice was to call players up with 171 days left in the year, eschewing the full year of service time.
After six or more years of service, players are finally eligible for free agency.
This is why the MLB owners at large agreed to PPI: It gives them more picks, and more picks means more control.
MLB Rookie of the Year odds 2023
That just raises the question: Who has the best shot at winning his team a pick?
Here's a look at the preseason Rookie of the Year odds, per BetMGM.
American League
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | +250 |
| Masataka Yoshida* | Boston Red Sox | +600 |
| Anthony Volpe | New York Yankees | +650 |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros | +900 |
| Grayson Rodriguez** | Baltimore Orioles | +900 |
| Triston Casas | Boston Red Sox | +900 |
* - International signing, not eligible for PPI
** - Not on Opening Day roster
MORE: MLB Betting Guide 2023: Odds, picks for World Series, MVP, Cy Young, ROY
National League
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | +400 |
| Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | +400 |
| Miguel Vargas | Los Angeles Dodgers | +700 |
| Kodai Senga* | New York Mets | +800 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Colorado Rockies | +900 |
| Francisco Álvarez** | New York Mets | +1200 |
| Brett Baty** | New York Mets | +1200 |
* - International signing, not eligible for PPI
** - Not on Opening Day roster
The MLB season is 187 days, so players not on the Opening Day roster would have to be called up before Saturday, April 15 to qualify for the incentive.
Henderson is the odds-on favorite in the American League. The NL, however, is far more competitive with Walker joining the fray.
In the first two years of its experiment, PPI has been a rousing success. Fans are seeing the players they want to see earlier. After the Mariners hauled in a No. 29 pick with Rodríguez's Rookie of the Year last season, look for more call-ups before the April 14 cutoff. After all, if there's one thing teams love more than hoarding contracts, it's hoarding picks.
