Luis Castillo has seemingly been the subject of trade rumors since he burst onto the scene with the Reds in 2017.
The dynamic hurler has consistently been one of baseball's best, most consistent arms since his debut. Entering Tuesday's start against the Marlins, he ranks eighth in Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement (bWAR) during that span at 18.4. Among starters with at least 100 starts since 2017, his ERA+ of 126 ranks 11th, meaning he was 26 percent better than the average pitcher.
With the Reds mired in their worst season since 2015, the two-time All-Star is now more likely than ever to be traded. He remains under team control through the end of the 2023 season, and has his lowest ERA of his career at 2.77, giving him immense trade value.
There are several teams that are likely going to make a bid for the top starting pitcher on the trade market. Which teams are the best landing spots for Castillo? The Sporting News takes a look at five such destinations.
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Luis Castillo landing spots
Blue Jays
Toronto is back on track after it got off to a slow start that led to the firing of manager Charlie Montoyo, and now finds itself in the top AL wild card spot at 53-43. If there's one area in which the Jays are likely to be buyers at the deadline, it will be the starting rotation.
Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah have both been standouts thus far into the season, and Ross Stripling has stepped up well in the No. 3 spot, but there is a major dropoff from there. Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi have struggled mightily, with ERAs of 5.22 and 5.12, respectively. And with Hyun-Jin Ryu out for the season, there aren't reinforcements expected to come back anytime soon to help.
The Blue Jays would also have the prospect depth needed to acquire Castillo from Cincinnati. While they will almost certainly be keeping top prospect Gabriel Moreno, bats like Orelvis Martinez or Jordan Groshans, or a pitcher like Nate Pearson or Ricky Tiedemann could headline a package that would otherwise likely be loaded up with prospects from the lower levels of the minors.
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Dodgers
It doesn't matter what the Dodgers' needs are, or how they're doing, Los Angeles is always among the teams in consideration for the best players on the trade market. And that will be no different for Castillo. Their starting pitching ERA of 2.76 is the lowest in the majors, and they have four starters with sub-3.00 ERAs in Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias and Tyler Anderson.
But how about adding a fifth? Walker Buehler will not return until late in the season, if at all, and even with Anderson and Gonsolin's breakout seasons, they are a bit more unproven than Kershaw and Urias. Castillo would give the Dodgers far and away the best rotation heading into the postseason.
And farm system depth is never a problem for the Dodgers, who seemingly always have the top prospects needed to pull off any trade. Last year, it was catcher Keibert Ruiz and starting pitcher Josiah Gray headlining a package for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. This year, it could be catcher Diego Cartaya and starting pitcher Bobby Miller leading a deal, though it is more likely only one of the two would be involved with other pieces heading back in the package.
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Mariners
Seattle pulled off one blockbuster with Cincinnati to acquire Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez in the offseason. Why not make it another? The Mariners are back in the wild card mix, and are hoping to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Acquiring Castillo would be a major step in the right direction for them.
The rotation has been one of the best in baseball, with the seventh-lowest ERA at 3.69. There is not a real weakness to point to in the starting five, as everyone with at least 10 starts has an ERA below 4.00, but outside of reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, none are proven ace-caliber arms. While Logan Gilbert has been outstanding, he's only in his second season. Seattle would likely be a bit more comfortable with a proven ace like Castillo in a must-win playoff game.
Even after the promotions of Kirby and Julio Rodriguez, Seattle's farm system remains deep, loaded particularly in the lower levels of the minors. Noelvi Marte could be a tough ask, but would be the type of headlining talent the Reds would look for. Perhaps this is the change of scenery that would benefit former top prospect Jarred Kelenic.
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Mets
Much like the Mariners and Dodgers, the Mets acquiring Castillo would be more trying to further build on a strength rather than addressing a weakness. New York's starter ERA of 3.65 is the sixth-best in the majors, and with Jacob deGrom coming back at some point, the Mets are, in a sense, already adding an ace around the deadline.
Still, a team can never have enough pitching, and with injury issues in the past with deGrom and Max Scherzer, having Castillo as the game's best No. 3 pitcher would be ideal. Taijuan Walker has had a standout year with a 2.55 ERA and Carlos Carrasco, Chris Bassitt and David Peterson have each done well to round out the rotation, but adding Castillo would give the Mets a potential one-two-three punch that few playoff teams could match.
The Mets have been talked about as a potential suitor for Juan Soto given their prospect depth, so it would make sense that they would have the depth to get Castillo. Francisco Alvarez is likely not on the table, but Brett Baty or Ronny Mauricio could highlight a package that would entice Cincinnati.
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Yankees
Stop if you've heard this before: want, not need. That's where the Yankees would be at for Castillo. If they went to the playoffs right now with a rotation of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery, they'd feel pretty good. And given Soto's availability and the need for a reliever, getting Castillo might not be the highest priority at the moment.
Still though, the thought of adding Castillo to a rotation that already has the third-lowest ERA in baseball (3.26) might be too good to pass up. Severino has been dealing with a shoulder injury recently and had Tommy John surgery back in 2020, and adding Castillo could give Severino additional time to rest, while also giving New York a fearsome rotation when everyone is healthy.
There is no question New York has the top-line talent needed to put together a compelling package for Cincinnati. Jasson Dominguez's upside might make New York a bit hesitant to move him, but Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza would be a strong centerpiece in a package, along with a few other prospects.
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Honorable mentions
If a team feels it has a shot to compete at the deadline, Castillo would be a good fit. The Twins have already made one trade with the Reds for a starting pitcher, and they could certainly use a third quality option behind Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan if they are going to hold off the Guardians and White Sox. Speaking of, the White Sox would also have a need as Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn have struggled after standout 2021 seasons, but they might not have the prospect depth needed to win the sweepstakes. The Cardinals are an unlikely match since Cincinnati would likely not be inclined to face Castillo several times over the next year-plus, but they have the prospect depth to put together an enticing package. The Padres are also likely to come up in any trade discussion, but they might be more apt to save their prospects for an all-out push on Soto.
