The Padres have not had a winning record since 2010 and have not been to the playoffs since 2006. After four straight seasons finishing double-digit games out of first place in the National League West, new general manager A.J. Preller quickly put his stamp on the team with a flurry of offseason acquisitions. James Shields is the new face of the pitching staff, and the Padres have new faces at five positions, with right fielder Matt Kemp the signature addition along with third baseman Will Middlebroooks, center fielder Wil Myers and left fielder Justin Upton.
The problem San Diego will face is that it plays right down Interstate 5 from one of baseball's best teams in the Dodgers, and the roster of wild card contenders has gotten to be as deep as the Padres’ outfield corps, with the Cubs, Mets and Marlins ready to join the fray that already included the Pirates and Giants.
So, what can be expected from the Padres in 2015? Here are five predictions.
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1. Nowhere to go but up
The Padres finished last in the National League in 2014 in runs, hits, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS (obviously) and total bases, while ranking next-to-last in home runs. That these things will change is hardly a bold prediction, given the changes to the Padres’ roster, but this will be the first year since 2004 that San Diego finishes in the top 10 in the National League in slugging percentage and only the second time since then that the Padres will finish in the top 10 in runs scored. The main cog will be Kemp, who will hit .312/.367/.480 with 31 home runs, finishing fourth in the MVP vote while joining Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley as the only Padres to go deep 30 times since the team moved to its sparkling downtown ballpark.
MORE PREDICTIONS: Dodgers | Giants | Rockies | Mets | Cardinals | Angels
2. Big Boss Ross
Shields is the opening day starter and, for all intents and purposes, the ace of the staff. At least, he is at the start of the season. Tyson Ross, who had 195 strikeouts in 195.2 innings last year to go with a 2.81 ERA and 3.24 FIP, will get better in his second full season as a big league starter, going 17-9 with a 2.58 ERA, 3.05 FIP and 208 strikeouts, the best numbers on the San Diego staff, ahead of Andrew Cashner and Big Game James, whose first season in the National League will go well – he’ll be 14-10 with a 2.89 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 187 strikeouts – but not as well as those other two gentlemen.
3. Yangervismania returns!
Acquired in the Headley trade with the Yankees last summer, Yangervis Solarte hit .267/.336/.355 with four homers in 56 games for the Padres. Among players who had at least 100 plate appearances, he is San Diego’s top returning player from an OPS+ standpoint. He’s squeezed out of a starting job at third base by Middlebrooks, and is not replacing Jedd Gyorko at second base, but Solarte will get his at-bats as an all-over-the-infield reserve and double-switch man, and he will make those at-bats pay off to the tune of a .275/.343/.368 line, and see considerable time at shortstop as a better offensive option than Alexi Amarista or Clint Barmes, until Preller shifts him back to a reserve role with a trade for a shortstop in July.
4. Over Yonder, into history
Yonder Alonso has one triple in 1,409 career plate appearances. His second will be a big one, as it is part of the first cycle in Padres history. It will happen on June 13 against the Dodgers, with the triple coming first, followed by the double and the homer before the single. Alonso actually tries to run his way out of the cycle, thinking that the ball in the right-center field gap is an opportunity for a double, but Yasiel Puig’s throw to second base is in plenty of time to record the out and give Alonso a piece of history that he was unaware he was even chasing. The out looms large, too, because the Padres fall to their rivals, 7-6, and with it, they squander their chance to take a half-game lead over Los Angeles in the division.
5. San Diegone
While the Padres will be much improved, and will hang around the playoff race all season long, a 5-14 record against the Rockies will be their undoing, and San Diego will finish four games behind the Giants, who go 13-6 against Colorado, more than making up the difference between the clubs. The Padres will have their winning record for the season, but will have to spend the winter wondering what might have been different had the Matt Holliday voodoo of 2007 still not been working against them.