Willie Mullins-trained thoroughbred Vauban looks set to start the 2023 Melbourne Cup as the favourite, with many tipping the French raider to take home the $4.4 million prize.
The six-year-old gelding enters the prestigious race with seven wins from 14 appearances and will be ridden by previous cup-winning jockey Ryan Moore from barrier three.
But while the horse looks to be in prime condition to challenge for the Melbourne Cup, there's plenty of reason to doubt the rising favourite.
The Sporting News looks at the history of favourites at Australia's most famous race.
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How often does the favourite win the Melbourne Cup?
The last favourite to win the Melbourne Cup was Fiorente in 2013 (at $7), and you'd have to go back to Makybe Diva in 2005 to find the next closest.
Just 34 favourites have gone on to win in 162 editions of 'the race that stops the nation', while only six have won at $3.60 or shorter.
Last year's favourite Deauville Legend began at $4.40 but missed the placings, finishing fourth.
Who was the 1st favourite to win the Melbourne Cup?
Archer was the first favourite and back-to-back winner to claim the Melbourne Cup, starting at $3 in the second-ever edition of the race in 1862.
The stallion was one of five horses to win the event twice in history, joining Rain Lover (1968–69), Peter Pan (1932, 1934), Think Big (1974–75) and Makybe Diva (2003–2005).
Interestingly, Archer started at the fourth shortest odds in the first Melbourne Cup race in 1861, despite its win.
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Who is the favourite to win the 2023 Melbourne Cup?
While odds will shift ahead of Tuesday's big event, Vauban continues to gain traction as the cup favourite.
The French gelding has held onto the top spot since an impressive win in the Ballyroan Stakes in August, currently sitting at $4.20 per Dabble.
Vauban's trainer Mullins says that weather is the only concern for the six-year-old, with the temperature set to reach 30 degrees in Flemington.
“We’re just not used to that,” Mullins said.
“Two miles at the pace they’re going to be going tomorrow is going to be tough on the horses, but not a lot of humidity which is good.
“But it’s certainly something we will be concerned about.”
Two familiar names could also enter the frame as potential favourites — 2023 Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight, and last year's Melbourne Cup winner Gold Trip.
When is the Melbourne Cup?
This year's Melbourne Cup will be held on Tuesday, November 7th at Flemington Racecourse.
The feature event on a 10-race card will commence at 3pm AEDT.
What channel is the Melbourne Cup on?
This year's Melbourne Cup Carnival will be broadcast live on Channel 10.
