It's one of the most thrilling races on the calendar each year, and the 2021 Cox Plate promises to be another cracker at Moonee Valley.
Zaaki was at unbackable odds just a fortnight ago, but a shock loss in the Might and Power Stakes has seen the Annabel Neasham-trained gelding drift out to almost $3 in the betting market.
Verry Elleegant will be searching for her 10th Group 1 victory, while Anamoe will be under a light weight and appears a big chance
Speaking to Sporting News ahead of Saturday afternoon's massive race, legendary trainer Richard Freedman analysed the top chances and who he is leaning towards at The Valley.
ZAAKI
A clear top pick just a few weeks ago, things have evened out now in the market and many are skeptical about Zaaki's chances after a disappointing performance recently at Caulfield.
The seven-year-old will jump from barrier six and while he has the potential to take it out, Freedman is wary after its most recent effort.
“He’s definitely got the ability to win it, and he might well win it," he said.
"To me, he had a hard autumn and went well into winter in Queensland with some great performances. He didn’t have a lot of time off, came back and won brilliantly in Sydney first-up and won well in Melbourne second-up.
"Third-up, he looked to me like he was looking for a bit of give in the ground. The Valley is a softer surface that Caulfield, and that may turn him around.
"He just looks like he may be starting to feel that tough period – they can’t stay at their peak forever. They go in waves and he may have just come off the top, but he may not have.
"Winning is always better. That race was a stop-start race, and those are the sorts of races that short-priced favourites get beaten in.
"I wouldn’t be reading too much into it, but just be careful."
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ANAMOE
With the lightest weight of just 49.5kg for this year's Cox Plate, the three-year-old Godolphin runner comes in with strong form after a win in the Caulfield Guineas.
Freedman admits he has never tipped a three-year-old to win the Cox Plate, but there's no reason it can't happen.
"I’ve never tipped a three-year-old to win the Cox Plate ever, and it has happened many times," he said.
"It’s hard for me to say, but if you get a good three-year-old like him and they generally race closer to the pace than he does. They are hard those ones that come from the back, although I think Octagonal did.
"It can happen and he definitely has the ability to do it."
VERRY ELLEEGANT
A real fan-favourite here in Australia, Verry Elleegant will look to win her 10th Group 1 race and first Cox Plate this year.
Rated a solid chance in the markets and with plenty of support, Freedman's recent conversations with trainer Chris Waller lead him to believe she will be right in the mix.
"I talked to Chris Waller the other day and I said how has the mare gone in Melbourne? He said she seems to have freshened up," he said.
"She was a little bit feeling the pressure of being at her top for a long time, but he said they’ve given her a little break and she looks fresher.
"She is so good."
MO'UNGA
A dual Group 1 winner, Mo'unga remains at decent odds for those chasing a roughie and will have plenty of support.
The four-year-old has ran 2nd and 5th in its last two outings, and Freedman believes it could be a class below some of the more favoured runners.
“Tough horse – he will put himself into the race there somewhere," he said.
"I don’t know if he has quite got the class to win it, but he will be thereabouts."
CAPTIVANT
A rougher chance in the field, Captivant is coming off an eye-catching 2nd to Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas last start.
Freedman believes that if Anamoe can win it, there's no reason the Snowden-trained colt can't be in the mix.
“Not without a chance – if Anamoe has a chance, Captivant has a little chance," he said.
"He’s not far off Anamoe, luck in running is a big thing and he races a bit closer to the pace which might be an advantage to him at a very light weight.
"Maybe throw him in your multiples."
FINAL VERDICT
If you're looking for a straight-up winner, Freedman isn't leaning one way or the other at this stage.
But if you are someone who likes to play the exotics - he's got a simple play for you.
"I’d take a first four and throw all of them in," he said.
