The first day of The Championships takes place on Saturday April 2nd, with a stack of Group 1 racing on the card.
The main event of the day at Randwick will no doubt be the G1 Doncaster Mile, while the G1 TJ Smith Stakes and G1 Australian Derby will also have plenty of punters interested.
Racing personality and expert Glenn Munsie joined Sporting News for an in-depth look at all the big races and gave his analysis and tips.
DONCASTER MILE 2022 PREVIEW, ANALYSIS AND TIPS
Forbidden Love - $4.80, Barrier 14
“The form tells you it’s the horse to beat for a couple of simple reasons. She’s won four races at Randwick, she’s won five races on heavy tracks, her last two wins are at weight-for-age, she drops 7 kilos. The one question mark is – is she going better than she was going last year when she ran in this race and finished down the course? The heavy track really brings her into the race – I’ve still got a slight question mark over her. It does have Jamie Kah and she rode Cascadian last year to win the Doncaster – can she go two Doncasters in a row? It’s one of those horses."
I’m Thunderstruck - $5, Barrier 8
“One of the better-backed runners is I’m Thunderstruck. Last time we saw him in Sydney, he won the Golden Eagle. He had Hugh Bowman that day and he gets Hugh Bowman again. His last couple of runs in Melbourne have been alright, he’s won on a heavy 8 and he’s won a couple of times on soft tracks. He’s got to overcome 55.5kg."
Converge - $8.50, Barrier 3
“It does (factor into the finish) and a massive advantage is it’s back in distance. It didn’t seem to relish the 2000m…but he wasn’t disgraced by any stretch of the imagination. I know Chris Waller has used over many years – Randwick feature mile races, he tends to run his horses in a 2000m race before it to condition them. the fact we will get a heavy 10, you want to be very strong at the finish. With no weight on his back, Rachel King at 49.5kg, is the reason he is hard in the market as a single-figure chance. Gai has a phenomenal record in the Doncaster."
Private Eye - $15, Barrier 22
“Not really, he is going to get back anyway. The only reason or worry now is that he will probably have to be last. He was always going to be well back anyway – a lot of people read into where they draw. If you’re a backmarker anyway, it doesn’t affect you. Private Eye, it won’t worry him at all."
Ellsberg - $15, Barrier 6
“He’s probably one of the more popular runners since the barrier draw on Tuesday – he is into a $15 chance now. He blotted his copybook in a way by being beaten by Just Folk. He’s a go-forward horse, Tim Clark draws a nice barrier."
Icebath
“I’m still getting over last year’s Doncaster, I was on Icebath at $34 and how it got beat is beyond me. I fail to see why you shouldn’t be having something on her again Icebath – you know she will get through the ground and she always runs good races in big races."
Just Folk - $21, Barrier 10
“There’s a horse you’ve got to look at. Just Folk is probably the best wet-tracker in the race. If you think Ellsberg has got a good chance, why not Just Folk? With him (Ellsberg) being $15 and Just Folk being $21, I would probably tip my way towards Just Folk."
Cascadian - $26, Barrier 18
“He is going to get fairly similar conditions, probably not as wet as he got. He’s got to bely a little bit of history Cascadian – 12 of the last 20 Doncaster winners have carried 53kg or less. If you have a look at the weights for Saturday, only four horses have more than 53kg and Cascadian is one of them. He does get James McDonald and drawn barrier 18 – but he is well out of the market. You can get surprise results – it just depends on who gets through the ground the best."
Roughies
“It’s just one of those races – there is a horse like Dalasan, had it not been really wet, his Randwick record is phenomenal. Albeit he hasn’t won, he runs a great race every time."
Final tips
“I’m going to have something on Icebtath and I’m going to have something on Just Folk.”
TJ SMITH STAKES 2022 PREVIEW, ANALYSIS AND TIPS
Nature Strip - $2.80, Barrier 11
“This is the ideal barrier for Nature Strip. James McDonald will just jump out and travel in a straight line. We’ve seen him do it before from a wide alley, especially in a race like The Everest. I’m very worried the way Nature Strip got through the ground on a similar track at his last start at Randwick. James said he was never really happy on the very heavy"
Shelby Sixtysix
“Can we write a fairytale and Shelby Sixtysix can win another Group 1? Tommy Berry put a comment out on social media and he said ‘I wonder how he will go first-up on Saturday’ because he hasn’t been to the races for two weeks. Danny Williams was considering taking him to the races on Wednesday to Canberra to get him switched on a little bit. This will be the fairytale story of The Championships if he was to win. 26 starts I think he’s had – his first 20 starts he earned $120,000 prizemoney, his next six he’s earned $650,000."
Masked Crusader - $9.50, Barrier 1
“If you look at the race – Eduardo just held on to beat Shelby Sixtysix and Nature Strip ran third. Masked Crusader wasn’t there – he can get through the ground. No matter whether he drew 1 or 101, he is going to be last. It’s just dependent on where the horses are being able to win from at Randwick. We saw when it was very heavy the last time, it was difficult to get very wide and you had to make your ground closer to the inside. The track pattern will be the key to Masked Crusader, but he will be finishing and he will be the strongest the last little bit – a la Chautauqua."
Final tip
“I’m probably going to be with Masked Crusader, but the heart is going to be with Shelby Sixtysix."
AUSTRALIAN DERBY 2022 PREVIEW, ANALYSIS AND TIPS
Hitotsu - $3.60, Barrier 4
“That is a very big query for him. He’s got to create history – Mahogany is one of the only horses that has won the Victoria Derby and Australian Derby. He’s been $2.80 out to $3.50 since the draw for the simple reason being that it will be a very heavy track. It’s a question mark there. His last preparation he went 1600m or 1800m, straight into 2500m for the Derby. Never ever doubt Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Their record with horses 2000m or above is unbelievable."
Regal Lion - $6, Barrier 10
“Murray Baker is going to retire in the middle of the year – Murray has trained five Australian Derby winners, he and Andrew Forsman have trained two of the last five together. He’s got Regal Lion, who was a $34 chance before Monday at Newcastle – it’s now a $6 chance on the back of running third in the Tulloch Stakes."
Character
“Tulloch Stakes has proved four winners of the Derby in the past five years – but they have been the winner of the Tulloch Stakes and that is Character."
Final tip
“I’m going to be with the two horses out of Newcastle – Regal Lion is not going to be one of them, because I think he is now getting into under the odds. I’m going to be on Character and Benaud."
