The U.S. Women’s Open expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

Following a fast week off, the world's best women players are coming into their second major championship of the season. The 79th U.S. Women's Open will be contested for a second time at Lancaster Country Club in Lancaster, PA.

About 70 miles due west of Philadelphia, Lancaster is a step back in time. William Flynn's 1920 masterpiece is no exception to the atmosphere these world class women will feel out in Amish Country. Nestled amongst the rolling hills of beautiful Pennsylvania farmland, this picturesque parkland layout reminds us of how simple a great golf course can be.

Just grass, sand, trees, and a little stream can test the elite of the LPGA. In 2015, In Gee Chun won the U.S. Women's Open at Lancaster CC with a 272 total of eight under par. Only 13 players finished 72 holes under par that week. It was a stern test and one the USGA couldn't wait to put in front of the women once again.

The 27-hole facility has three nines: Meadowcreek, Dogwood, and Highlands. The old course is comprised of the Meadowcreek and Dogwood nines. A par-70 scorecard at 6,629 yards, it is the fifth-longest course these ladies have seen this season.

This preview is just that, a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the RBC Canadian Open and the US Women’s Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

U.S. Women's Open expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Brooke Henderson (+2800 on BetMGM)

Who can challenge Nelly on this type of test? Henderson has three straight top-15 results in the U.S. Open. In 2015 at Lancaster CC, she finished fifth. The multiple major champion is ranked eighth in the field for strokes gained tee-to-green.

Third in the field for par-4 scoring, Brooke has always been a great par-70 competitor. Top 10 on tour for greens in regulation, she has all of the tools needed to compete and win our national championship.

Best head-to-head matchup: XiYu Lin over Ruoning Yin (-110 on Bet365)

Similar to Henderson, Lin has been incredibly consistent in this championship. Lin has three top-13 results over the past three years. One of the most well-rounded players on tour, she can handle all a U.S. Open will throw at you.

Yin has not been the same ball striker she was a year ago when she won multiple times on tour. With just three top 10s in 13 starts for 2024, putting has plagued Ruoning. The pressure to continue hitting it closer has caused her to miss more greens and rely on an average short game. On a U.S. Open test, take Lin to outlast Yin in this H2H.

*Best bet of the week*
Nelly Korda to finish in the top 5 (+105 on Bet365)

Nelly Korda has won six of her last seven starts including a major championship. The best player on the board by far now comes to the toughest test in women’s golf. At +350 you may not want to bet her against 155 other players, but getting five places just cannot be skipped. Ranked first in T2G, par-4 scoring, and GIRs and second around the green, Korda will outlast most of the field in Lancaster.

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U.S. Women's Open live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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U.S. Women's Open: Conditions, winning trends

The characteristics of a William Flynn golf course are based on athleticism. Flynn loved to test golfers as athletes. As you watch the women this weekend, pay attention to all of the terrain changes. He was a brilliant builder who could marry the land and layout unlike many others.

Rolling hills and closely mown areas all lead to the target and at times tragedy. To successfully navigate a national championship setup on this venerable venue one woman will need complete control of her golf ball. Sounds a lot like win number seven this season for Nelly Korda.

Although that may be true, she will earn it. To start, the course is long and plays longer. More than half the holes, competitors are climbing to these green complexes. Power is essential in the modern game and will give the contenders a decided advantage.

Strokes gained off the tee is an excellent measure because it takes into consideration accuracy and power, with a bias toward length. The best drivers in the game have an advantage at every domestic major. I'm favoring the elite OTT players on our outright card.

Three of the top four GIR leaders in the field have won at least once this season. Accumulating as many GIRs as possible should be your number one priority. The green complexes at Lancaster are intricate and will keep these players on edge. Flynn was a master of dogleg holes. He is so good at challenging the simplest of fundamentals. Bending the fairway not only tests your alignment off the tee, but on approach as well. I spent 13 years as a PGA Head Professional at a classic Flynn design. Speaking from experience, he has an incredible knack for making you question your eyesight.

Greens are laid at odd angles to the fairway, bunker faces block sight lines, and he absolutely loves uneven lies. Flynn was an incredible athlete himself. Set as a par 70, the field must figure out how to score on the par 4s. There are 12 of them and that style of scorecard (par 70) favors a certain type of player.

Many professionals primarily score on par 5s. You can absolutely make a living at it. When you remove two par 5s, those birdies need to come from another place. Par 4 scoring was a skill I highlighted and researched rather extensively. Guess who? Nelly leads the LPGA in par 4 scoring, but a couple other leading ladies can keep pace with her.

U.S. Open setups require incredible scrambling skill and pressure putting. At times they can even be a little too tough, so luck comes into play. Historically, the U.S. Open has given us some unfamiliar names on the trophy even when Lorena and Annika were at the height of their power.

If there's one major where Nelly can be beat, it's this one. Or an AIG Women's Open across the Atlantic with bad weather. One small misstep by Korda and one of those contenders can win. It will take a careful combination of OTT and APP play. Certainly, a number of par saving opportunities will need to be successfully navigated and there's no doubt the best pressure putters need only apply.

The top 10 from 2015 was covered with major winners and a couple new names at the time. I expect another similar assortment this week in Lancaster. After all, it is the US Open. Will Nelly be involved until the end, yes. But at +350 we're taking our chances in this championship with a couple others on our card as well…

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U.S. Women's Open: Lancaster Country Club course description

Forty U.S. Open rookies will join 24 of the top 25 in the Rolex World rankings in Lancaster. Course conditions are perfect for play. The region has received about one inch of rain over the last two weeks. We witnessed a little rain Monday and should get a little more on Wednesday. Starting Thursday, the skies look clear, and temperatures are expected in the mid 70s.

An extensive renovation of the original Flynn design was completed in 2007 by Ron Forse and Jim Nagle. Getting back to the Flynn roots really turned an above-average parkland course into a major championship venue.

Even though the course is in a farmland setting, the women will be tested by many elevation changes, small greens, and perfectly-positioned penalty areas. Lancaster CC boasts 72 bunkers and a creek that runs through the routing.

The average green size is 6,100 square feet, and 11 greens sit above the player on approach. This is a U.S. Open, so only 24 acres of fairway grass cover all 18 holes. The field is 156 players, and just the top 60 and ties get to play the weekend for $12 million in prize money. Back in 2015, Chun won $810,000 for finishing first. On Sunday, the USGA will award the winner with $2 million!

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 30 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.