Tiger Woods is returning to the course for the first time during the 2024 PGA Tour season.
The 48-year-old golfer is in this week's 71-player field at the Genesis Invitational. Woods has never won the event despite participating in the tournament 13 times and is hoping to rectify that with an early-season breakthrough.
But even if he can't win, Woods will be happy to prove that he can still contend on the PGA Tour after playing just one even in 10 months.
Woods played in just three total events during the 2023 calendar year while dealing with injury complications from a 2021 car crash. He was forced to withdraw from the Masters while dealing with plantar fasciitis and had ankle surgery shortly thereafter to repair the issue.
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Woods returned to action at the Hero World Challenge in November, but he endured his share of issues in that exclusive tournament. He finished 18th in the 20-man field, so he will be looking to perform a bit better at the Genesis.
Golf fans will never rule Woods out from contention — we all remember his 2019 Masters win, after all — but still, many will wonder whether he has a good chance to win or whether he could be a betting sleeper for this week of action.
Here's what to know about Woods' odds to win the Genesis Invitational and where he might finish among the field at one of the PGA Tour's elevated events.
Tiger Woods odds to win Genesis Invitiational
Woods isn't expected to win the Genesis Invitational in 2024. It will mark just his fourth PGA Tour event played over the last year and the first since the Hero World Challenge back in November of 2023.
Woods carded an even-par score in the Hero World Challenge to finish 18th in the exclusive, 20-golfer field. Only Wyndham Clark (2-over) and Will Zalatoris (11-over) shot worse than the 15-time major winner.
With that in mind, sportsbooks are universally pricing Woods as one of the least likely candidates to win at the Genesis Invitational despite it possessing just a 71-player field.
Three major books — BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel all have Woods with odds of 125-1 or longer to win the event. FanDuel's 200-1 odds are the longest of the bunch.
| Sportsbook | Win | Rank | Top 10 | Top 20 |
| BetMGM | +12500 | +2000 | +800 | +333 |
| DraftKings | +18000 | +3000 | +1200 | +400 |
| FanDuel | +20000 | +3000 | +1200 | +400 |
Golf bettors have learned in recent years that books often shorten the odds with Woods because of the hefty volume of bets that come in on him. After all, he is a fan-favorite and his 2019 Masters win showcased that he can still win when he has a great weekend.
That said, Woods hasn't logged a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour since the 2020 Farmer's Insurance Open. And since the 2021 U.S. Open, Woods has played in just nine events, withdrawing from two of them and missing the cut at two while struggling with a serious leg injury he suffered in a February 2021 car crash.
Thus, it's easy to understand why the books are comfortable giving the 48-year-old longer odds at this stage in his career. And it's clear that FanDuel is hoping to elicit bets on Woods based on the fact that their odds are longer than two of their major competitors.
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Tiger Woods projected finish at Genesis Invitational
Woods is making his fifth appearance at the Genesis Invitational since 2018. He hasn't enjoyed much success in his previous four outings, earning a top-20 finish just once and struggling with consistency as he has battled injuries.
Below is a look at Woods' year-by-year results at the Genesis Invitational since 2018:
| Year | Result | Score to par |
| 2018 | Cut | 6 over (after 2 rounds) |
| 2019 | T-15th | 6 under |
| 2020 | 68th | 11 over |
| 2023 | T-45th | 1 under |
Given Woods' rock history of late, it's no surprise that the major sportsbooks aren't giving him a great chance to finish among the leaders at the event. His odds to win the tournament rank at least 47th-longest at each of three sportsbooks at which we have been looking.
| Sportsbook | Odds to win | Rank among players listed |
| BetMGM | +12500 | T-47th |
| DraftKings | +18000 | T-58th |
| FanDuel | +20000 | T-53rd |
Average those numbers together and it seems like Woods projects to rank 52nd or 53rd in the field for the Genesis Open.
DraftKings' top 40 finishing odds seem to back that up. The sportsbook lists Woods with odds of -105 to crack the top 40, giving him an implied probability of 51% of finishing 40th or better.
That probability may seem a bit high based on where his odds rank in relation to the rest of the field. But remember: sportsbooks tend to juice Woods' odds a bit given the amount of action they get on him. So, it's more likely that his actual probability of finishing in the top 40 in worse than a coin-flip instead of better than one, even in a smaller field.
All that's to say that while Woods could crack the top 40, it seems more likely that he will be in range of the T-45th he placed here last year after posting a 1-under scorecard.
Will Tiger Woods make the cut at the Genesis Invitational?
None of the major books have released odds for Woods making the cut as of this writing. That said, his odds to do so figure to be shorter than his -105 chances of finishing top 40 on DraftKings.
Why? Because the top 50 golfers (and ties) at the Genesis Invitational make the cut. So, as long as Woods doesn't finish in the bottom-20 at the event, he will be allowed to play the weekend.
Woods has made the cut in each of his last three appearances at the Genesis Invitational. As such, it's fair to assume he will be in the mix to do so again in 2024 even despite his lack of recent PGA Tour action.
So, anyone confident that Woods will fare well in the early days of the tournament should be willing to bet "yes" on this prop. It's a bit safer than trusting him to sustain play for four days and should have a chance to be a winner.
There is risk without knowing about Woods' recent form, but the odds aren't short enough to detract bettors from taking a chance on one of the best golfers to ever play in this spot.
Tiger Woods prop bets
There are plenty of other Tiger Woods wagers bettors can make ahead of the Genesis Invitational. FanDuel has a whole section of their app/website dedicated to Woods prop bets.
Below is a look at those props, listed from shortest odds to longest.
| Prop | Odds |
| Round 1 — To Make 3+ Birdies (or Better) | -280 |
| Round 1 — To Make 4+ Birdies (or Better) | +100 |
| Top 20 Finish after Round 1 (Including Ties) | +160 |
| To have a Bogey Free Round in the Tournament | +210 |
| Round 1 — To Make 5+ Birdies (or Better) | +350 |
| Top 10 Finish after Round 1 (Including Ties) | +390 |
| Round 1 — Bogey Free on Holes 10-18 | +500 |
| Round 1 — Bogey Free on Holes 1-9 | +550 |
| Round 1 — To Birdie (or Better) All Par 5's (Holes 1, 11 & 17) | +600 |
| Top 5 Finish after Round 1 (Including Ties) | +850 |
| Round 1 — To Make 6+ Birdies (or Better) | +950 |
| Bogey Free — Round 1 | +1200 |
| Bogey Free — Round 2 | +1200 |
| Bogey Free — Round 3 | +1200 |
| Bogey Free — Round 4 | +1200 |
| To Shoot Under 70.5 in All 4 Round | +1900 |
| Round 1 — To Make 7+ Birdies (or Better) | +3500 |
| 10th Hole — Birdie (or Better) in All 4 Rounds | +3500 |
| To Lead after Round 1 & Win the Tournament | +37000 |
| Wire to Wire Winner | +50000 |
If you're confident that Woods will have a good showing at the Genesis Invitational, then perhaps taking him to post a bogey-free round during the tournament at +210 odds would be a solid bet. If not, betting four-plus birdies or better in Round 1 at even odds seems like a solid bet, as Woods carded five in his opening round at the tournament last season.
The longer odds are more daring bets, but as always, Tiger will command attention from golf fans as they hope to see the former World No. 1 reach the top of his game again.
