This is a weird week for the PGA Tour. The U.S. Open took place at TCC Brookline two weeks ago, and the Travelers Championship last weekend. The Scottish Open is next week, and the British Open starts two weeks from Thursday. Saudi-backed tour LIV Golf has an event at Pumpkin Ridge in Portland, OR this weekend, its first in the United States. In the middle of it all is the John Deere Classic in the Quad Cities community of Silvis, IL. It might not have the luster of the other tournaments, but it’s still an opportunity for bettors to profit.
Held on the TPC Deere Run—a traditional and birdie-friendly course—the Deere Classic often finds itself lacking a surplus of big names. It could be anyone’s game, as the field contains only two players on the top 75 of the World Golf Rankings. Still, plenty of value can be found on the odds and prop boards.
MORE: PGA Tour strikes back at LIV Golf
Let’s do a quick scouting report of the course, then check out the full odds board. We’ll then unpack our best bets, value plays, and favorite prop bets for this small-time event and get you ready for what should be a weekend filled with scorecard circles.
2022 John Deere Classic betting preview: Odds, best bets, values, and props
TPC Deere Run Scouting Report
The course design of TPC Deere Run is traditional and slightly angular, measuring right around 7,200 yards. If players avoid the rough—a thick Kentucky bluegrass—and play a consistent all-around game, they will finish well under the par 71. Approach shots, around-the-green, and putting rank as the most important factors in winning at the TPC Deere Run. It’s often referred to as a “shotmaker’s course.” Since 2009, every winner of the Deere Classic has finished at least -18.
2022 John Deere Classic Full Odds Board
Odds from Sports Interaction
| Daniel Berger +1200 |
| Webb Simpson +1200 |
| Adam Hadwin +1500 |
| Davis Riley +1900 |
| Maverick McNealy +2000 |
| Sahith Theegala +2000 |
| Jason Day +2100 |
| Denny McCarthy +2400 |
| Cameron Champ +2900 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout +3000 |
| Nick Hardy +3100 |
| Brendon Todd +3500 |
| Cam Davis +3300 |
| Patrick Rodgers +3400 |
| Scott Stallings +3400 |
| J.T. Poston +3400 |
| Adam Long +3600 |
| Lanto Griffin +3700 |
| Taylor Pendrith +3700 |
| Doug Ghim +3700 |
| Charles Howell III +3700 |
| Anirban Lahiri +4100 |
| Alex Smalley +4200 |
| Emiliano Grillo +4200 |
| Martin Laird +4600 |
| Lucas Glover +4700 |
| Kevin Streelman +4700 |
| C.T. Pan +4700 |
| Adam Svensson +5000 |
| Dylan Frittelli +5200 |
| Charley Hoffman +5200 |
| Adam Schenk +5500 |
| J.J. Spaun +5600 |
| David Lipsky +5800 |
| Mark Hubbard +5800 |
| Steve Stricker +6000 |
| Chad Ramey +6400 |
| Austin Smotherman +6500 |
| Patton Kizzire +6500 |
| Rory Sabbatini +6500 |
| Tyler Duncan +6900 |
| John Huh +6900 |
| Nate Lashley +7300 |
| Ryan Armour +7300 |
| Ryan Moore +7500 |
| Taylor Moore +7700 |
| Matthias Schwab +7800 |
| Brandon Wu +7800 |
| Matt Wallace +7800 |
| Stephan Jaeger +7900 |
| Kramer Hickok +7900 |
| Hayden Buckley +7900 |
| Greyson Sigg +8000 |
| Nick Taylor +8200 |
| Michael Thompson +8400 |
| Hank Lebioda +8400 |
| Doc Redman +8400 |
| Lee Hodges +8400 |
| Scott Piercy +8400 |
| Joseph Bramlett +8400 |
| Chez Reavie +9300 |
| James Hahn +9300 |
| Zach Johnson +9300 |
| Andrew Putnam +9400 |
| Peter Malnati +9400 |
| Brandt Snedeker +9400 |
| Sam Ryder +9400 |
| Trey Mullinax +9400 |
| Andrew Novak +9800 |
| Paul Barjon +10200 |
| Harry Higgs +10300 |
| Brice Garnett +11100 |
| Ben Martin +11100 |
| Callum Tarren +11100 |
| Henrik Norlander +11100 |
| Justin Lower +11100 |
| Brian Stuard +11100 |
| Chris Gotterup +11100 |
| Robert Streb +13000 |
| Roger Sloan +13000 |
| Kevin Chappell +13200 |
| Sean OHair +13200 |
| Jonathan Byrd +13200 |
| Wesley Bryan +13200 |
| Sung Kang +13200 |
| Chase Seiffert +13200 |
| Chesson Hadley +13400 |
| Satoshi Kodaira +15700 |
| Vaughn Taylor +15700 |
| Brian Gay +18500 |
| Bill Haas +18500 |
| Scott Brown +19600 |
| Kevin Tway +20800 |
| Grayson Murray +22000 |
| Cameron Percy +22300 |
| Austin Cook +22300 |
| Vince Whaley +23000 |
| Camilo Villegas +23000 |
| David Lingmerth +23200 |
| Kelly Kraft +23200 |
| Michael Gligic +25400 |
| Scott Gutschewski +26300 |
| Jim Knous +26300 |
| Andrew Landry +26300 |
| Aaron Baddeley +26300 |
| Seung-Yul Noh +26300 |
| Ben Kohles +26300 |
| Brandon Hagy +26300 |
| Chris Stroud +29100 |
| Max Mcgreevy +31900 |
| Dylan Wu +31900 |
| Jonas Blixt +31900 |
| Richy Werenski +31900 |
| William Mcgirt +33800 |
| Brett Drewitt +36300 |
| Seth Reeves +36300 |
| Jason Dufner +36300 |
| Jared Wolfe +36300 |
| Bo Hoag +36300 |
| Dawie van der Walt +41700 |
| David Skinns +41700 |
| Greg Chalmers +41700 |
| Patrick Flavin +41700 |
| Nick Watney +41700 |
| Joshua Creel +41700 |
| Curtis Thompson +41700 |
| Martin Trainer +41700 |
| Ryan Brehm +41700 |
| Fabian Gomez +41700 |
| David Hearn +52600 |
| Shawn Stefani +52600 |
| D.J. Trahan +52600 |
| Boo Weekley +52600 |
| Ben Crane +52600 |
| Arjun Atwal +52600 |
| Robert Garrigus +52600 |
| Tommy Gainey +52600 |
| Quinn Riley +52600 |
| Derek Ernst +52600 |
| Bo Van Pelt +52600 |
| Sangmoon Bae +76900 |
| Ricky Barnes +81100 |
| D.A. Points +81100 |
| Johnson Wagner +81100 |
| John Merrick +81100 |
| Luke Gannon +81100 |
| Mark Hensby +90900 |
| Richard S. Johnson +111100 |
| Sean Mccarty +111100 |
| Omar Uresti +111100 |
| Brian Davis +115300 |
| Parker Mclachlin +130400 |
| John Senden +150000 |
| Kevin Stadler +176500 |
John Deere Classic 2022 betting preview: Odds, best bets, values, and props
John Deere Classic: Best bet
Webb Simpson +1200
Simpson opened as the favorite at +1000 on most books, then moved to runner-up on many odds boards at between +1200 and +1500. Now he's +1200 almost everywhere atop the boards again. That might actually be decent value for this event, as Simpson has the highest world ranking in this field and he has played pretty well as of late. The veteran tied for 13th at the Travelers Championship and displayed moments of brilliance at the PGA Championship, including a -5 65 in Round 3 despite poor conditions.
Simpson’s tee-to-green, approach, and around-the-green skills will come in handy at this straightforward (and average length) course. If he survives his putting, he might be able to take down his first win of the season after recovering from a herniated disk earlier in the year.
Other strong favorite: Adam Hadwin (+1500)
Hadwin has played TPC Deere Run twice, finishing top 20 both times, but it’s been six years since he last played the Deere. He just finished tied for seventh at the U.S. Open, so he’s hot. Find a book that yields more value for Hadwin (he’s +1600 on some sites), or consider him for props like top five (+300) or top 10 (+150).
John Deere Classic odds: Best value bet
Sahith Theegala +2000
Theegala almost took down the Travelers Championship, but the 24-year-old ultimately choked under the pressure. He failed to escape the bunker on the 18th, ultimately recording his first bogey of the round and losing to Xander Schauffele in the final moments of the tournament.
Still, Theegala looks very polished in his rookie season, ranking 66th in the OWGR (second to only Simpson’s 58th among John Deere competitors), and he looks to be worth a modest wager at +2000. He also seems like a bargain at +350 to finish in the top 10, considering he’s placed top 10 in 20 percent of his tournaments this season and faces a much weaker field this weekend.
Other strong value: Steve Stricker +6000
Stricker is a borderline long shot, but he’s easily the best golfer in the field at these odds. The 55-year-old veteran has won the John Deere Classic three times (2009-11). Nobody in this event knows the TPC Deere Run quite like Stricker, whose respective finishes were -20 in ‘09, -26 in ‘10, and -22 in ‘11.
Stricker battled health problems in 2021 – inflammation around his heart as well as liver issues – but he has looked superb since his return in late April. He has one win (Regions Tradition), two runners-up finishes (Insperity Invitational, U.S. Senior Open), and six top-11 finishes out of six PGA Champions tournaments this year.
John Deere Classic: Best sleeper/long-shot bet
Scott Brown +19600
As Sports Interaction points out, Brown is “having a tough year but has a few top 10s here, including T4 last year.” You won’t find many dart-throws this valuable this week in the world of betting.
John Deere Classic: Best bet to finish top 10
Odds from DraftKings
Nick Hardy +450
Hardy probably doesn’t merit a bet to win outright quite yet—the 26-year-old has yet to win a tournament in his young career—but he certainly deserves your attention in the top-10 or top-20 props. Hardy finished tied for eighth in the Travelers Championship last weekend and tied for 14th one week prior at the U.S. Open. He was also born, raised, and educated in Illinois, with his native Northbrook and alma mater Illinois just 2.5 hours from TPC Deere Run. You gotta love the storyline as well as his stellar play as of late.
John Deere Classic: Best sleeper to finish top 20
Sam Ryder +300
Ryder has endured a rocky road in 2022, but the TPC Deere Run should be a welcome sight for him. The 32-year-old has made three consecutive cuts at the Deere Classic, including a tie for runner-up in his rookie year back in ‘18. Ryder has a SG:ATG of .158, which ranks 70th at the PGA, but his SG:Putting is what’s most impressive (.427, 23rd). He has the skill set and the confidence on this course to make some noise this weekend.
John Deere Classic: Best value to finish top 40
Adam Schenk -110
Schenk missed the cut at the Travelers, but before that he had consecutive top-26 finishes at the Memorial Tournament and the U.S. Open. The Indiana native also has three top-10 finishes on the season and 10 finishes in the top 42 (yes, a bit of a cherry-pick here). Schenk could rise to the top of the boards if his approach and putting games stay smooth.
John Deere Classic: Best prop bets
Will there be an albatross? Yes +1400
Like we’ve been saying, the TPC Deere Run serves as one of the more straightforward, player-friendly courses on the PGA Tour. Nine of the past 12 winners at the Deere Classic have finished -20 or better. In 2018, Michael Kim shot an unfathomable -27. In ‘19, Lucas Glover recorded an albatross on the par-five 10th, holing a 255-yard fairway shot with a 3-iron. With a shallow field, it might be a good bet for a stud with a big lead to risk it for the biscuit and go for golf’s rarest achievement.
Albatross!@Lucas_Glover_ holes his second shot from 255 yards on the par-5 10th. 👏#LiveUnderPar pic.twitter.com/h6KqZPofS5
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 12, 2019
Other worthwhile props: Triple Chance: Hadwin, Simpson or Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win (+350); Tournament Winning Margin: 4 Strokes or More (+350)
