John Deere Classic betting preview: Best bets, values, sleepers, and props for the annual event at TPC Deere Run

Sloan Piva

John Deere Classic betting preview: Best bets, values, sleepers, and props for the annual event at TPC Deere Run image

This is a weird week for the PGA Tour. The U.S. Open took place at TCC Brookline two weeks ago, and the Travelers Championship last weekend. The Scottish Open is next week, and the British Open starts two weeks from Thursday. Saudi-backed tour LIV Golf has an event at Pumpkin Ridge in Portland, OR this weekend, its first in the United States. In the middle of it all is the John Deere Classic in the Quad Cities community of Silvis, IL. It might not have the luster of the other tournaments, but it’s still an opportunity for bettors to profit.

Held on the TPC Deere Run—a traditional and birdie-friendly course—the Deere Classic often finds itself lacking a surplus of big names. It could be anyone’s game, as the field contains only two players on the top 75 of the World Golf Rankings. Still, plenty of value can be found on the odds and prop boards.

MORE: PGA Tour strikes back at LIV Golf

Let’s do a quick scouting report of the course, then check out the full odds board. We’ll then unpack our best bets, value plays, and favorite prop bets for this small-time event and get you ready for what should be a weekend filled with scorecard circles.

2022 John Deere Classic betting preview: Odds, best bets, values, and props 

TPC Deere Run Scouting Report

The course design of TPC Deere Run is traditional and slightly angular, measuring right around 7,200 yards. If players avoid the rough—a thick Kentucky bluegrass—and play a consistent all-around game, they will finish well under the par 71. Approach shots, around-the-green, and putting rank as the most important factors in winning at the TPC Deere Run. It’s often referred to as a “shotmaker’s course.” Since 2009, every winner of the Deere Classic has finished at least -18.

2022 John Deere Classic Full Odds Board

Odds from Sports Interaction

Daniel Berger +1200
Webb Simpson +1200
Adam Hadwin +1500
Davis Riley +1900
Maverick McNealy +2000
Sahith Theegala +2000
Jason Day +2100
Denny McCarthy +2400
Cameron Champ +2900
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +3000
Nick Hardy +3100
Brendon Todd +3500
Cam Davis +3300
Patrick Rodgers +3400
Scott Stallings +3400
J.T. Poston +3400
Adam Long +3600
Lanto Griffin +3700
Taylor Pendrith +3700
Doug Ghim +3700
Charles Howell III +3700
Anirban Lahiri +4100
Alex Smalley +4200
Emiliano Grillo +4200
Martin Laird +4600
Lucas Glover +4700
Kevin Streelman +4700
C.T. Pan +4700
Adam Svensson +5000
Dylan Frittelli +5200
Charley Hoffman +5200
Adam Schenk +5500
J.J. Spaun +5600
David Lipsky +5800
Mark Hubbard +5800
Steve Stricker +6000
Chad Ramey +6400
Austin Smotherman +6500
Patton Kizzire +6500
Rory Sabbatini +6500
Tyler Duncan +6900
John Huh +6900
Nate Lashley +7300
Ryan Armour +7300
Ryan Moore +7500
Taylor Moore +7700
Matthias Schwab +7800
Brandon Wu +7800
Matt Wallace +7800
Stephan Jaeger +7900
Kramer Hickok +7900
Hayden Buckley +7900
Greyson Sigg +8000
Nick Taylor +8200
Michael Thompson +8400
Hank Lebioda +8400
Doc Redman +8400
Lee Hodges +8400
Scott Piercy +8400
Joseph Bramlett +8400
Chez Reavie +9300
James Hahn +9300
Zach Johnson +9300
Andrew Putnam +9400
Peter Malnati +9400
Brandt Snedeker +9400
Sam Ryder +9400
Trey Mullinax +9400
Andrew Novak +9800
Paul Barjon +10200
Harry Higgs +10300
Brice Garnett +11100
Ben Martin +11100
Callum Tarren +11100
Henrik Norlander +11100
Justin Lower +11100
Brian Stuard +11100
Chris Gotterup +11100
Robert Streb +13000
Roger Sloan +13000
Kevin Chappell +13200
Sean OHair +13200
Jonathan Byrd +13200
Wesley Bryan +13200
Sung Kang +13200
Chase Seiffert +13200
Chesson Hadley +13400
Satoshi Kodaira +15700
Vaughn Taylor +15700
Brian Gay +18500
Bill Haas +18500
Scott Brown +19600
Kevin Tway +20800
Grayson Murray +22000
Cameron Percy +22300
Austin Cook +22300
Vince Whaley +23000
Camilo Villegas +23000
David Lingmerth +23200
Kelly Kraft +23200
Michael Gligic +25400
Scott Gutschewski +26300
Jim Knous +26300
Andrew Landry +26300
Aaron Baddeley +26300
Seung-Yul Noh +26300
Ben Kohles +26300
Brandon Hagy +26300
Chris Stroud +29100
Max Mcgreevy +31900
Dylan Wu +31900
Jonas Blixt +31900
Richy Werenski +31900
William Mcgirt +33800
Brett Drewitt +36300
Seth Reeves +36300
Jason Dufner +36300
Jared Wolfe +36300
Bo Hoag +36300
Dawie van der Walt +41700
David Skinns +41700
Greg Chalmers +41700
Patrick Flavin +41700
Nick Watney +41700
Joshua Creel +41700
Curtis Thompson +41700
Martin Trainer +41700
Ryan Brehm +41700
Fabian Gomez +41700
David Hearn +52600
Shawn Stefani +52600
D.J. Trahan +52600
Boo Weekley +52600
Ben Crane +52600
Arjun Atwal +52600
Robert Garrigus +52600
Tommy Gainey +52600
Quinn Riley +52600
Derek Ernst +52600
Bo Van Pelt +52600
Sangmoon Bae +76900
Ricky Barnes +81100
D.A. Points +81100
Johnson Wagner +81100
John Merrick +81100
Luke Gannon +81100
Mark Hensby +90900
Richard S. Johnson +111100
Sean Mccarty +111100
Omar Uresti +111100
Brian Davis +115300
Parker Mclachlin +130400
John Senden +150000
Kevin Stadler +176500

John Deere Classic 2022 betting preview: Odds, best bets, values, and props 

John Deere Classic: Best bet

Webb Simpson +1200

Simpson opened as the favorite at +1000 on most books, then moved to runner-up on many odds boards at between +1200 and +1500. Now he's +1200 almost everywhere atop the boards again. That might actually be decent value for this event, as Simpson has the highest world ranking in this field and he has played pretty well as of late. The veteran tied for 13th at the Travelers Championship and displayed moments of brilliance at the PGA Championship, including a -5 65 in Round 3 despite poor conditions.

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Simpson’s tee-to-green, approach, and around-the-green skills will come in handy at this straightforward (and average length) course. If he survives his putting, he might be able to take down his first win of the season after recovering from a herniated disk earlier in the year.

Other strong favorite: Adam Hadwin (+1500)

Hadwin has played TPC Deere Run twice, finishing top 20 both times, but it’s been six years since he last played the Deere. He just finished tied for seventh at the U.S. Open, so he’s hot. Find a book that yields more value for Hadwin (he’s +1600 on some sites), or consider him for props like top five (+300) or top 10 (+150).

John Deere Classic odds: Best value bet

Sahith Theegala +2000

Theegala almost took down the Travelers Championship, but the 24-year-old ultimately choked under the pressure. He failed to escape the bunker on the 18th, ultimately recording his first bogey of the round and losing to Xander Schauffele in the final moments of the tournament.

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Still, Theegala looks very polished in his rookie season, ranking 66th in the OWGR (second to only Simpson’s 58th among John Deere competitors), and he looks to be worth a modest wager at +2000. He also seems like a bargain at +350 to finish in the top 10, considering he’s placed top 10 in 20 percent of his tournaments this season and faces a much weaker field this weekend.

Other strong value: Steve Stricker +6000

Stricker is a borderline long shot, but he’s easily the best golfer in the field at these odds. The 55-year-old veteran has won the John Deere Classic three times (2009-11). Nobody in this event knows the TPC Deere Run quite like Stricker, whose respective finishes were -20 in ‘09, -26 in ‘10, and -22 in ‘11.

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Stricker battled health problems in 2021 – inflammation around his heart as well as liver issues – but he has looked superb since his return in late April. He has one win (Regions Tradition), two runners-up finishes (Insperity Invitational, U.S. Senior Open), and six top-11 finishes out of six PGA Champions tournaments this year.

John Deere Classic: Best sleeper/long-shot bet

Scott Brown +19600

As Sports Interaction points out, Brown is “having a tough year but has a few top 10s here, including T4 last year.” You won’t find many dart-throws this valuable this week in the world of betting.

John Deere Classic: Best bet to finish top 10

Odds from DraftKings

Nick Hardy +450

Hardy probably doesn’t merit a bet to win outright quite yet—the 26-year-old has yet to win a tournament in his young career—but he certainly deserves your attention in the top-10 or top-20 props. Hardy finished tied for eighth in the Travelers Championship last weekend and tied for 14th one week prior at the U.S. Open. He was also born, raised, and educated in Illinois, with his native Northbrook and alma mater Illinois just 2.5 hours from TPC Deere Run. You gotta love the storyline as well as his stellar play as of late.

John Deere Classic: Best sleeper to finish top 20

Sam Ryder +300

Ryder has endured a rocky road in 2022, but the TPC Deere Run should be a welcome sight for him. The 32-year-old has made three consecutive cuts at the Deere Classic, including a tie for runner-up in his rookie year back in ‘18. Ryder has a SG:ATG of .158, which ranks 70th at the PGA, but his SG:Putting is what’s most impressive (.427, 23rd). He has the skill set and the confidence on this course to make some noise this weekend.

John Deere Classic: Best value to finish top 40

Adam Schenk -110

Schenk missed the cut at the Travelers, but before that he had consecutive top-26 finishes at the Memorial Tournament and the U.S. Open. The Indiana native also has three top-10 finishes on the season and 10 finishes in the top 42 (yes, a bit of a cherry-pick here). Schenk could rise to the top of the boards if his approach and putting games stay smooth.

John Deere Classic: Best prop bets

Will there be an albatross? Yes +1400

Like we’ve been saying, the TPC Deere Run serves as one of the more straightforward, player-friendly courses on the PGA Tour. Nine of the past 12 winners at the Deere Classic have finished -20 or better. In 2018, Michael Kim shot an unfathomable -27. In ‘19, Lucas Glover recorded an albatross on the par-five 10th, holing a 255-yard fairway shot with a 3-iron. With a shallow field, it might be a good bet for a stud with a big lead to risk it for the biscuit and go for golf’s rarest achievement.

Other worthwhile props: Triple Chance: Hadwin, Simpson or Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win (+350); Tournament Winning Margin: 4 Strokes or More (+350)

Sloan Piva

Sloan Piva Photo

Sloan Piva is a content producer for The Sporting News, primarily focused on betting, fantasy sports, and poker. A lifelong New Englander, Sloan earned his BA and MA in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts and now lives in coastal Rhode Island with his wife and two kids.