The Sentry: Fresh start
Welcome back to the PGA TOUR! The 2024 season starts quickly, as 59 players have flown out to Hawaii to compete for $20 million in The Sentry. Thirty-eight of the the top 50 in the OWGR are playing, with heightened attention on this season's starting event due to its new “signature” status.
The Sentry was known as the Tournament of Champions, but changes to the framework of men’s professional golf have caused the TOUR to elevate certain events. Now the previous season’s winners are joined at Kapalua Resort by the top 50 finishers in the FedEx Cup point standings from last year. There’s no cut, so each competitor has four rounds to prove they can hang with the number one player in the world, Scottie Scheffler.
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Testing the world’s best is the Plantation Course at Kapalua, the host venue since 1999. The par-73 layout covers 7,596 yards. The third-longest course on the PGA TOUR takes the field up and down for 18 holes. One of the longest and most difficult walks on TOUR, thankfully the field comes in fully rested from the offseason.
The PGA TOUR goes to Hawaii in January because the weather is pretty reliable. Course conditions are very good and the forecast looks perfect for scoring. Trade winds should be moderate in the low teens and temperatures will rise to the mid-80s each day. There’s a slight chance of rain predicted for Sunday afternoon, but by then it could easily change. Maui has faced considerable hardship in the past year, so the return of the TOUR is a welcome sight to the residents and fans.
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Kapalua always gives a great show. The average winning score over the last decade is 24 under par! Defending champion Jon Rahm made 30 birdies on his way to winning in 2023, and 33 the year prior in a 2022 runner-up finish. I don’t believe many players will be missing him and his move to LIV. The scorecard has three par-3s, four par-5s, and 11 par-4s. Those par-5s is where the scoring starts.
Eight of the 11 par-4s are under 425 yards, and they can all be reached with a wedge on the approach shot. That gives you 15 holes (combined with the par-5s) where every player in the field is thinking birdie or better in every round. If your plan is to make 25-plus birdies, then you must be able to putt these Bermudagrass greens. Everything is large on the Plantation Course. Fairways are 80 to 100 yards wide and the greens average 8,722 square feet. That makes the putting surfaces the largest these men will face all year on the PGA TOUR.
Ninety-three bunkers decorate the greens and fairways, although they really aren’t much of the challenge at Kapalua. Considering the length, most pundits might try and get you to believe longer hitters thrive here. Power is an advantage, but not nearly the most important edge. The terrain creates a number of collection areas in the fairway. This allows shorter hitters the opportunity to keep up with the TOUR’s longer drivers.
The season will get off to a hot start here. Unlike past campaigns, everyone has zero FedEx Cup points and just eight months to prove their value. The new 35-week season has eight $20 million signature events, the four major championships, THE PLAYERS Championship, and three playoff events. A more defined schedule and a longer offseason will be more exciting for the fans. Think of college football where every week REALLY matters.
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The Sentry: Live Outright Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
| Golfer | Odds to Win |
| Scottie Scheffler | +550 |
| Viktor Hovland | +800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1200 |
| Max Homa | +1200 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1400 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2500 |
| Tom Kim | +2500 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +3000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +3000 |
| Sungjae Im | +3000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3000 |
| Tony Finau | +3000 |
| Tyrell Hatton | +3000 |
| Cameron Young | +4000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 |
| Sam Burns | +4000 |
| Jason Day | +4500 |
| Russell Henley | +4500 |
| Sepp Straka | +4500 |
| Wyndham Clark | +4500 |
| Brian Harman | +5500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +5500 |
| Corey Conners | +6000 |
| Denny McCarthy | +6000 |
| Eric Cole | +6000 |
| Cam Davis | +6600 |
| Justin Rose | +6600 |
| Sahith Theegala | +6600 |
| Adam Hadwin | +10000 |
| Adam Svensson | +10000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +10000 |
| Harris English | +10000 |
| J.T. Poston | +10000 |
| Luke List | +10000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +12500 |
| Andrew Putnam | +12500 |
| Brendon Todd | +12500 |
| Chris Kirk | +12500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +12500 |
| Lucas Glover | +12500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +12500 |
| Matt Wallace | +12500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +12500 |
| Tom Hoge | +12500 |
| Vincent Norrman | +12500 |
| Adam Schnek | +15000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +15000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +15000 |
| Nick Taylor | +15000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +15000 |
| Taylor Moore | +15000 |
| Camilo Villegas | +20000 |
| Davis Riley | +20000 |
| Lee Hodges | +20000 |
| Seamus Power | +20000 |
| Nick Hardy | +25000 |
| Nick Echavarria | +25000 |
The Sentry: Over the hills and far away
From the second green to the 17th tee box, the elevation change on the Plantation Course is over 400 feet. Ball strikers tend to fare well at Kapalua, because uneven terrain examines just how precisely you can impact the golf ball. In the course summary, I mentioned the considerably wide fairways. Off-the-tee skill is not a differentiating skill at The Sentry. Those fairway collection areas set each player up with a similar opportunity on approach. Great iron play is second only to putting in strokes gained by the winners.
Before we get to the flatstick, let’s dig deeper on approach. Eight holes on the Plantation Course require a wedge or less to attack the green. There are a plethora of great wedge players in this field, so we will need help in separating the field further. Nine of the remaining 10 holes require a much longer shot in. Two of those are par-3s, three are par-4s over 500 yards, and the remaining four are par-5s the players will try to hit in two. I mention this often, but long iron play on TOUR always differentiates the field.
Very few players have the ability to hit their wedges and long irons at an elite level. I’ve determined who those competitors are this week. Just as most PGA TOUR winners and FedEx Cup top 50 are excellent par-5s scorers, this course has 11 par-4s. Making birdies on those holes gives you another distinct advantage — just one more player characteristic that really helps us determine who will be in the running on Sunday afternoon.
Short game around Kapalua is helpful for making birdies on the par-5s and short-4s. Scrambling from 50 yards and in will lead to a higher birdie or better percentage (BoB%). The most essential skill comes on the greens. The last five winners have gained (on average) over five strokes on the field with their flatstick. These are the largest greens on TOUR. Three-putt avoidance and lag putting are vital to contending come Sunday. Players should also be successful on Bermudagrass greens.
Getting to 25-plus under par means you must convert nearly 30 birdie chances! Needless to say, if you aren’t a good putter, maybe grab an all-inclusive stay and just enjoy yourself for the week. The Coore-Crenshaw design really tests you on the greens. Throw in all of the elevation changes and putts are also hard to read. Chances are if you are a bad putter, then you are also a bad green reader.
One last factor I like this week is bogey avoidance. If you are firing at every pin trying to make birdie, there will be some mistakes — this is golf. Getting up and down once or twice a round from the short side (near the pin) is imperative over four rounds. One knows, losing just one stroke over four rounds can ultimately be the difference between cashing and capsizing.
The Sentry: Stat geek
Best bet to win: Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000 on BetMGM)
Matt Fitzpatrick records every stroke he takes in each tournament and practice round. The OCD U.S. Open champion charts everything in an effort to improve. Most of these players have been off for weeks. How do you know who puts in the work needed to be ready to win in Week 1? You think a guy that records EVERY single shot takes time off? A month ago, he finished fifth at the Hero World Challenge and won a couple weeks earlier on the DP World Tour. Fitzpatrick is an excellent putter and extremely accurate from long range. That combination — along with an obsessive motivation to win — make him a great outright bet in Maui.
The Sentry: He’s the world’s best
To finish in the top 5: Scottie Scheffler (+145 on bet365)
This is Scottie Scheffler’s tournament to win. In fact, every tournament is Scheffler’s to take home if his putter works. Last year, his best putting performance came at Kapalua. Combined with a win at the Hero last month, you know the world's No. 1 is ready for a huge season in 2024.
The Sentry: Best Bet of the Week!
To finish in the top 20: Eric Cole (+138 on BetMGM)
Mini-tour marvel and sensational 2023 rookie Eric Cole closed the year with three straight top-3 finishes and seven top 10s overall last season. A little wild off the tee, Cole will gain confidence with Kapalua’s wide landing zones. A great Bermudagrass putter, Cole never stops playing competitive golf — so that hot finish to 2023 will definitely carry over to 2024.
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