AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023 betting guide: PGA expert predictions, sleepers, top prop picks, and more

What makes the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am special is the exact same attribute that also makes it difficult. It is not the wind or the rain, although that does play a part. It isn’t the cliffside approaches or tiny greens perched alongside the Pacific Ocean. What makes this week on the PGA Tour hard are all the people involved.

A field of 156 players will compete with amateur partners this week on three different courses for the AT&T. Preparation for these three courses would be enough of a test as they provide a very different challenge than last week. Combine that with hosting an amateur as well and we’re facing several headwinds. Let's take a look at the odds for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, then review the course layouts for the first three rounds. 

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Odds

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Course layouts

Pebble Beach Golf Links (one round + final round)

• Par 72; 6,972 yards
• Iconic Par 3’s, 116 bunkers across the links, and majestic cliffside views.
• Small target greens with an average size of 3,500 square feet.

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (one round)

• Par 72; 7,041 yards
• Sixty-two bunkers are scattered around intricate green complexes, and seven Par 4's under 430 yards.
• Exposed to the elements, this course can be a game changer. Get paired here on a difficult day and the AT&T is over.

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (one round)

• Par 71 and 6,934 yards
• Over 130 bunkers, a handful of holes with penalty areas and the newest addition to the Pebble Beach rotation.  
• This 36-hole facility has two courses. For the AT&T they use the Shore Course.

All three courses have Poa annua grass on the greens. This California cut of grass challenges the best, especially inside ten feet. Nineteen of the Top 100 players in the world are competing with five of them in the Top 30. Over the last decade the average winning score is 18 under par. Outside of 2014, each year the total always ends up in the high teens. Nineteen under par was the winning score in five of the last ten editions.

The list of winners is far more varied than the average score. In fact, there’s a very interesting twist when it comes to their pre-tournament odds. In the last ten years, the average winner’s odds on the even years are +21100 (211-1). Yet on the odd years that average is +1800 (18-1). Since 2023 is an odd calendar year, I think you realize where my mind is focused to figure this one out.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Past trends and winners

Selecting successful players who will contend this week starts with that Pro-Am ability. Can they handle their partner for at least three days? The fields of this and The American Express mirror one another and succinctly show only certain guys really want to play in this format. To take it another step, the winners also have played the AT&T and contended prior to winning at Pebble.

• Since 2006, each winner has placed at least Top 21 in the tournament prior to the year that they won. 
• In the last ten years, each winner played the AT&T at least three times prior to taking home the trophy. 

This doesn’t mean a debutant cannot win, but if they are going to win; these next two traits better be world class this week. The two most correlated skills for success at the AT&T are Strokes Gained Approach, especially from 75-150 yards, and Strokes Gained Putting on Poa. Of the last ten winners, each gained:

• Over 2.5 strokes against the field on the greens. 
• Over 4 strokes against the field on approach. 

Nearly two-thirds of the approach shots at the AT&T come from that wedge range. The reason these two skills are so significant are because of the design of these three courses. All three are some of the shortest they will play on tour all year. Sixty-eight percent of the Par 4’s are under 430 yards. The Par 5’s demand accurate wedge play and all of those short approaches offer ample opportunity for birdie putts inside of ten feet! 

Tournament history tells us those who have played well here before will do so again. The careful combination of coastal wedge play and opportunistic putting bring one new name to the forefront. Seamus Power shot 128 for the first two rounds last year. His 64-64 start provided him with a five shot lead going into the weekend. He eventually finished T9, but the lessons learned were powerful. Back in the fall when faced with target greens, windy coastal conditions, and bumpy greens, he took control of the tournament in Bermuda and won. With two wins on the PGA Tour, he now has the confidence to come back to Monterey and succeed. He highlights my Read The Line betting card for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Expert Predictions

Outright Winner

The best odds I found while writing this for Power to win outright were on Pointsbet +2500. With a weak field it is a fair number. Power’s proximity to the hole with a wedge is impressive. In that 75-150 yard window, his average approach distance to the hole is 17’3”. That’s primarily why he carded back-to-back 64’s. He’s a strong Poa putter and over his last five events he has a win and two more Top 5 finishes. 

Top 20 

Pro-Am weeks with multiple courses and unpredictable weather conditions can cause there to be great opportunities in the placement markets. Power is listed on PointsBet +125 to finish in the Top 20. He is Top 5 favorite in the field according to every book. Last year, he finished January with four Top 15 finishes in four starts. It’s clear he likes playing this time of year and at the host venues. Of course last year’s success at the AMEX led to contending in the AT&T. Follow this trend again.

H2H

DraftKings is offering positive odds +105 in a H2H matchup of Power against Tom Hoge. Sure Hoge is the defending champion, but who would be more inspired to take down Tom than Seamus after last year’s disappointment? Chances are Hoge will have more media obligations and distractions than he’s used to. Let’s grasp that golden opportunity and complete the Power trifecta! 

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.