The race for the 2024/25 Champions League title is heating up, and according to a supercomputer prediction from Opta, the battle for Europe's biggest prize could be a showdown between two familiar giants: Manchester City and Real Madrid. But will it be as straightforward as the stats suggest?
Manchester City, the reigning champions, are given the highest chance of retaining their crown, with the supercomputer handing Pep Guardiola's side a 25.3% chance of winning.
However, Real Madrid, who last triumphed in 2022 and added the sensational Kylian Mbappe to their squad this summer, are not far behind with an 18.2% chance of clinching their 15th European Cup.
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Can anyone challenge Man City and Real Madrid for Champions League this season?
The report places Serie A champions Inter Milan as the closest challengers to the two favorites, with a 10.9% chance of taking the trophy. Inter made it to the final two seasons ago but fell short last year, so they’ll be hoping to turn the tide this time around.
Arsenal, back in the Champions League after a long absence, have a 6.3% chance of lifting their first-ever Champions League trophy, according to Opta.
Gunners fans will be dreaming, but with the likes of Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Liverpool all hovering around the 5% mark, the competition will be fierce.
Paris Saint-Germain, now without Mbappe but still dominant in Ligue 1, have a slim 4.1% chance, and many feel their dream of European glory remains elusive. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund and Juventus have been given even slimmer hopes, with just 2.4% and 1.1% chances respectively.
Will Opta's supercomputer get it right, or is there an underdog waiting?
MORE: All the latest Champions League news | How does the 2024/25 Champions League work? | Full UCL match schedule
Full list of teams probability of winning the Champions League 2024/25
Rank | Club | Probability of winning Champions League (%) |
|---|---|---|
1 | Manchester City | 25.3% |
2 | Real Madrid | 18.2% |
3 | Inter | 10.9% |
4 | Arsenal | 6.3% |
5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5.4% |
6 | Barcelona | 5.2% |
7 | Liverpool | 4.2% |
8 | Bayern Munich | 4.1% |
9 | Paris Saint-Germain | 4.1% |
10 | RB Leipzig | 2.4% |
11 | Borussia Dortmund | 2.4% |
12 | Sporting CP | 2.2% |
13 | Atletico Madrid | 2.2% |
14 | Atalanta | 1.7% |
15 | Juventus | 1.1% |
16 | Girona | 1% |
17 | PSV Eindhoven | 0.7% |
18 | Stuttgart | 0.6% |
19 | Monaco | 0.5% |
20 | Milan | 0.4% |
21 | Benfica | 0.2% |
22 | Aston Villa | 0.2% |
23 | Sparta Prague | 0.2% |
24 | Bologna | 0.1% |
25 | Lille | 0.1% |
26 | Feyenoord | 0.1% |
27 | Club Brugge | 0.1% |
28 | Celtic | 0% |
29 | Dinamo Zagreb | 0% |
30 | RB Salzburg | 0% |
31 | Sturm Graz | 0% |
32 | Brest | 0% |
33 | Red Star Belgrade | 0% |
34 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0% |
35 | Slovan Bratislava | 0% |
36 | Young Boys | 0% |
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