The two clubs may be sitting a full 16 points apart in the Premier League table, but Man City and Man United will both know a lot is riding on the second Manchester derby of the 2023/24 season on Sunday at the Etihad.
City is locked in a classic title bout, battling both Liverpool and Arsenal who remain right in the thick of the action. Pep Guardiola's side currently sit second in the table, a point behind Liverpool and one ahead of the Gunners amidst a thrilling neck-and-neck race.
March represents a monumental stretch for Man City, as they will meet both fellow title contenders, traveling to Anfield in a week while hosting Arsenal on the final day of the month. Adding to the gauntlet are critical knockout ties sprinkled between those enormous league matches, with the return leg of their Champions League matchup with FC Copenhagen to come later this week and an FA Cup quarterfinal meeting with Newcastle later on.
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United, meanwhile, sit sixth on 44 points and appear vulnerable at every turn, but Erik ten Hag has done well to guide the Red Devils back into a run of form despite incessant off-field drama on a seemingly weekly basis.
There is bubbling chatter that ten Hag could be a lame duck coach with new owners now officially in charge of United, but he has kept the ship afloat — barely, at times — as the club remains in the hunt for European positions. A win over hated rivals City, an increasingly rare occurrence in recent years, would be a premium scalp for the Dutchman to bring INEOS as proof of his value as they look to staunch the slow demise of a one great Premier League giant.
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Man City vs Man United odds
As defending Premier League title winners and in strong contention to end the season atop the table yet again, Man City are understandably overwhelming favourites in this match.
It's only moved farther in the hosts' direction since United struggles against Nottingham Forest in FA Cup play midweek, eeking out a narrow 1-0 win, while City obliterated Luton Town 6-1 in their cup tie, as Erling Haaland exploded back to life with an incredible five goals.
That has plummeted Haaland's anytime goal scorer odds all the way back down to $1.41, having crept slowly higher through a lengthy (by his standards) goal slump.
| Unibet (AU) | |
| Man City win | 1.23 |
| Draw | 7.00 |
| Man Utd win | 12.50 |
| Both teams to score Y/N | 1.81 / 1.96 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1.96 / 1.84 |
| Man City -2.5 goals | 2.55 |
| Man Utd +2.5 goals | 1.50 |
Man City vs Man United prediction
- Moneyline lean: Man City (1.23)
- Score prediction: Man City 3-0 Man United
There's just too much working against Manchester United in this match to expect them to put up a fight worthy of securing a result against one of Europe's most formidable opponents.
The absence of in-form Rasmus Hojlund has proven a significant blow to the United attack, and they have appeared toothless while he recovers from a muscle injury. Marcus Rashford has not managed a single goal contribution in his last five matches, unable to pick up the slack.
Knowing they cannot keep up, Man United will do their best to keep a lid on this match, but that could also be a tall ask as Erling Haaland has exploded back to life after his short drought. There's only one way this match is likely to end.
Man City vs Man United match facts
- Date: Sunday, March 3, 2024 (Monday, Mar. 4 AEDT)
- Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. local (2:30 a.m. AEDT / 10:30 a.m. ET / 7:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Referee: Andy Madley, VAR: Stuart Atwell
- Last meeting: Man United 0-3 Man City (Oct. 29, 2023 | Premier League)
Man City vs Man United key stats
- Against Manchester United, Erling Haaland has collected both the joint-most goals (5) and most goal contributions (8) of any Premier League opponent since joining City. He has also scored five goals in three matches against Fulham, plus one assist to make six total contributions.
- Since being held off the scoresheet in a 2-0 defeat to United on March 7, 2021, Man City have scored 18 goals against the Red Devils in their last six meetings across all competitions.
- In 2024, Manchester United are unbeaten in all competitions with Rasmus Hojlund in the starting lineup, sporting six wins and a draw while scoring 19 goals in those matches. Without Hojlund, they have one win and two defeats, scoring a total of three goals.
Man City vs Man United team news
Manchester City have done well to get the squad close to full strength. They saw Jack Grealish depart with a muscle injury in the midweek win over Luton Town, but he is "good" according to a cagey Pep Guardiola and may not miss much time, although his status for this match is up in the air. The only other injury concern for Pep Guardiola is the continued absence of Josko Gvardiol due to an ankle problem, but he has returned to individual training and could return quite soon.
The injury list for Manchester United appears much more grim than their cross-town rivals. The absence of striker Rasmus Hojlund is a huge blow as he appeared to be rounding into form, nominated for Premier League Player of the Month in February. Also missing are Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martinez, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, with the former potentially out the rest of the season, while Harry Maguire could remain out with an unspecified injury. Mason Mount is also still absent, thought likely to return from a calf injury soon but still yet to prove fit enough to train.
Man City vs Man United best bet
- Pick: Man City -2 goal handicap
- Odds: 2.04 (Unibet)
The betting market is thinking like we are, that Man City appear to have everything needed in their favour to secure a big home result against a rival. Between the fitness gap between these two teams, the goal scoring form, and the general gulf in talent, too much is resting in Pep Guardiola's corner for them to be expected to struggle.
City won big at Old Trafford earlier this year, with a 3-0 scoreline even still underwhelming after City gobbled up a massive 4.0 xG total. Furthermore, United have been beaten by a combined 12-5 in their last three trips to the Etihad. United are missing too many of their in-form players to keep up.
Man City vs Man United prop bet
- Pick: Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals
- Odds: 2.50 (Unibet)
While Erling Haaland's 1.41 anytime goal scorer odds are pointless, backing him to score at least a brace presents an opportunity.
United are, quite simply, Haaland's favourite opponents, having gobbled up the Red Devils on multiple occasions, with a hat-trick in his Manchester derby debut and a brace in the reverse fixture this season. He scored an incredible five goals against Luton midweek, and while some might say he "used up" all his goals in that match, he has a history of following up big performances with another soon after.
Last season, Haaland's five-goal explosion against RB Leipzig in the Champions League knockout stage was followed up just four days later by a hat-trick against Burnley in the FA Cup, after logging back-to-back Premier League hat-tricks earlier in the season against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest.
Man City vs Man United card prop
- Pick: Bruno Fernandes to be booked
- Odds: 3.15 (Unibet)
Manchester United playmaker Bruno Fernandes managed to escape his first five Manchester derbies without being booked, but since earning the captain's armband, he's been a more consistent target of the referee's ire. He has been shown a yellow card in two of his last four games against City, committing nine fouls in that span.
This season, Fernandes has been a regular aggressor, with his 33 fouls on the year in Premier League play ranking in the top 20. Casemiro is the most well-known bookable player in the United squad, but Fernandes has eight on the year, two off the most of anyone in the league.
Every time these two clubs meet it's a card fest, understandably so in matches between heated rivals. Referees are on high alert in the Manchester derby — for example, last meeting United drew four bookings on just nine fouls, while the time before that the sides combined for 23 fouls between them.
