English football is back.
Liverpool and Manchester City will go head-to-head in the curtain raiser to the new domestic season on Saturday, as the Community Shield takes place at the King Power Stadium.
The match signals the traditional start of the new English campaign, as the FA Cup-winning Reds meet Premier League champions City, with both sides no doubt keen to make an early statement of intent before the league schedule gets under way on August 5.
As well as a chance to see several high-profile new signings in competitive action — not least two Golden Boot contenders in City's Erling Haaland and Liverpool's Darwin Nunez — the match will also mark another chapter in the ongoing tactical battle between Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp.
More: Who will win the Premier League Golden Boot 2022/23?
Spaniard Guardiola has won the Community Shield on two previous occasions with City, but has not lifted the first trophy of the season since 2019.
Klopp, meanwhile, has yet to win the competition, having been forced to settle for a runners-up spot twice in 2019 and 2020.
In fact, Liverpool have not won the Community Shield since 2006, when they beat Chelsea 2-1 thanks to a late Peter Crouch winner.
Here, The Sporting News takes a look at the best bets and odds ahead of what promises to be a mouthwatering opener.
Liverpool vs. Man City Community Shield betting odds
A look at the odds — and last season's Premier League table, which City topped ahead of their rivals by just one point — suggests that there's little to separate these two teams.
City will start the match as the slight favorites given last year's title run, but Liverpool will still feel that they have a great chance of securing a morale-boosting result.
The spread is a pick-em, again hinting towards how evenly matched these two powerful squads are.
Goals are expected, with both teams to score a heavy favorite, but the total goal mark at 2.5 is also up in the air.
| USA (DraftKings) | Canada (Sports Interaction) | UK (SkyBet) | Australia (Sportsbet) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | +180 | +208 | 19/10 | 2.75 |
| Draw | +250 | +164 | 5/2 | 3.40 |
| Man City Win | +130 | +139 | 13/10 | 2.37 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -165 / +130 | -132 / +105 | 4/7 / 5/4 | 1.57/2.25 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -125 / +105 | -132 / -105 | 8/11 / 1/1 | 1.72/2.00 |
| Man City +0 | -135 | -135 | — | — |
| Liverpool +0 | +115 | +103 | — | — |
Odds correct at time of publish
Liverpool vs. Man City Community Shield expert prediction
This match has draw written all over it.
First, there's been little to separate these two teams for a while now. Of the last five matches between them, three have ended without a winner.
Expanding that further, these teams have drawn five times in their past 10 games, dating back to the start of the 2018/19 Premier League campaign.
Included in that stretch is the 2019 Community Shield, which finished 1-1 and was decided on penalties, with Man City eventually lifting the trophy after the shootout.
The match more generally is often a cagey affair, as teams feel each other out at the start of what promises to be a long, hard-fought campaign.
With teams often holding something back for the start of the Premier League season, there's little incentive to go all-out for a victory in 90 minutes. As a result, three of the last five Community Shield games have ended level, requiring a penalty shootout.
If you feel inclined to pick a winner against the spread, Manchester City still seem to be slightly stronger on paper, but there's no real reason to go this route.
TSN's Picks (odds via DraftKings):
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+250)
- Against the spread lean: Man City (-135)
- Scoreline prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Man City
MORE: The best stats and facts ahead of the 2022/23 Premier League campaign
Liverpool vs. Man City Community Shield best bets
While these two teams have definitely provided goals in previous meetings — their last four clashes have yielded a mammoth 18 in total — the Community Shield is a very different story.
Both sides will likely feature attacking players who have just joined their clubs, and despite the pedigree that Haaland and Nunez offer, it's not unreasonable to think that they will require some time to get fully into their goalscoring groove.
Haaland did find the net against Bayern Munich on his City debut, but that was a scrappy goal and not one that came from any kind of chemistry with his new teammates. With just those 40 minutes at Lambeau Field as his only time in a City shirt so far, he could require more action to get into a real rhythm.
Meanwhile, at Liverpool, the situation is the same. Sadio Mane has departed, replaced by Nunez — who scored four times in the second half against RB Leipzig in the Reds' 5-0 preseason win.
The Uruguayan's intentions are already clear, but he will be coming up against a Premier League opponent for the first time in domestic action, and so don't be surprised if it takes him some adjustment to adapt to the English style.
Finally, while the Community Shield used to be a glorious mess of goalmouth action in the past, it is no longer the chaotic season-opener that it once was.
Each of the past five Community Shield matches has produced fewer than 2.5 goals and, dating back to 2013, only two of the nine games in that period hit the over, with none seeing more than three total goals scored.
TSN Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+105 via DraftKings)
Liverpool vs. Man City prop kicker: Shots on target
While it may take City's new leading light time to find his full form consistently against Premier League opposition, this is still Erling Haaland we are talking about and, as such, he will still feature on Saturday to some extent.
One thing that stands out about Haaland is the sheer volume of his shooting. Last season, with Borussia Dortmund, in 1917 Bundesliga minutes played, Haaland fired off 80 shots. All but three of those came from inside the penalty area, and just under 50 per cent were on target.
Through mid-January, when injuries began to plague the Norwegian, Haaland recorded at least two shots on target in 16 of his first 21 Bundesliga matches.
It took Haaland just 12 minutes to get his first shot on target against Bayern Munich in preseason, so how many will he make against Liverpool? At least two is a great shout.
TSN Pick: Erling Haaland to have 2+ shots on target (+100 via DraftKings)
Liverpool vs. Man City prop flier: Yellow cards
Luis Diaz is a dribbling machine for Liverpool, and his chance creation through carrying the ball into dangerous areas should give whoever starts for Manchester City at right-back significant trouble.
Can't wait to see a full season of this.
— Andrew Beasley 💙 (@BassTunedToRed) July 26, 2022
(Via: https://t.co/zRd8UzqKyu) pic.twitter.com/4JyQlFdT51
It's unclear at this stage whether that starting spot will go to Kyle Walker or Joao Cancelo, but if it's the latter, look for Diaz to put him on roller skates.
Riyad Mahrez, the likely right wing option, provides almost zero defensive cover, so it will be entirely on City's backline to cover Diaz's progressions down Liverpool's left flank.
If Walker starts, the England international has a better disciplinary record, leading to +450 odds to get a card, and so probably not worth a pick, but if it's Cancelo, the value is there.
He survived the FA Cup semifinal matchup between these two sides last season without a booking, but Diaz still profited en route to a 3-2 Liverpool win. This time, if Cancelo gets in trouble against the Colombian, expect a drag-back or late tackle.
Additionally, the Community Shield referee is Craig Pawson, who dished out the most yellow cards in the Premier League last year of any official. He's not shy about going to his pocket.
TSN Pick: Joao Cancelo to get a yellow card (+300 via DraftKings)
Premier League 2022/23 TV channels, live streams
| UK | USA | Canada | Australia | |
| TV channel | Sky Sports, BT Sport | USA Network, Telemundo, Universo | — | — |
| Streaming | NOW TV, Sky Go, Amazon Prime | fuboTV, Peacock | fuboTV | Optus Sport |
UK: Matches are carried across Sky Sports and BT Sport streaming and TV platforms, with select matches on Amazon Prime.
USA: Select matches are televised on USA Network (English) and Telemundo or Universo (Spanish), and all three channels can be streamed on fuboTV. The rest of the matches are streamed on NBC platform Peacock for subscribers.
Canada: Every Premier League game streams live and on demand exclusively via fuboTV.
Australia: Fans in Australia can stream matches live and on demand on Optus Sport.
