Japan vs Croatia prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 Round of 16

Japan produced the most wacko group stage performance of any team at the World Cup, with their defeat to lowly Costa Rica sandwiched between a pair of giant upsets over Germany and Spain. It's the highs that overtook the lows as the Samurai Blue advanced in dramatic fashion to the knockout stage.

They take on Croatia, the second place finishers from 2018, in the Round of 16, as Luka Modric's side finished second in Group F behind Morocco.

Croatia have conceded just a single goal thus far, engineering a pair of scoreless draws while blasting Canada 4-1. Still, they were poor at times, hanging on for dear life against Belgium in the finale and seeing the Red Devils out.

This match will present a fascinating chess match, as Croatia are happy slowing the game down against a Japan team that's been gangbusters after the halftime break.

MORE: Follow all 2022 FIFA World Cup daily picks & predictions from The Sporting News here

Japan vs. Croatia odds

Japan took down both Spain and Germany to make it this far, and have earned the respect those results are due, as they have brought 2018 runners-up Croatia up to plus odds on the moneyline.

However, interestingly, this game is expected to be low-scoring, even though Japan scored two goals against both European powers in the group stage. The under is a huge favorite, while both teams to score is skewed towards "no," meaning there is still a lot of notice for the Croatia defense.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

A reminder: All moneyline bets in soccer are for regulation only, regardless of competition. If the match requires a winner and goes to extra-time or penalties, a moneyline bet of a regulation draw is successful and the rest of play does not factor in.

Japan vs. Croatia: 3 things to know

Japan vs. Croatia team news

The biggest concern for Japan is to defender Hiroki Sakai who suffered a hamstring injury against Germany and has been an unused substitute for the two games since. Ao Tanaka had fitness concerns after he was yanked at halftime of the Germany game, and did not play against Costa Rica, but he returned against Spain and will be healthy for the knockout stage. Ko Itakura is suspended for yellow card accumulation.

Croatia have no known injury concerns to worry about. The only major one coming into the tournament was regarding the fitness of midfielder Marcelo Brozovic, but he played every minute of the group stage.

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Japan vs. Croatia key stats

• Japan have reached the Round of 16 three previous times in their World Cup history, never progressing past this stage.
• Conversely, Croatia have never lost in the Round of 16 on their two previous World Cup knockout stage adventures. The European nation has finished third and second in the two times they've gone past the group stage.
• Japan and Croatia have met three times previously, evenly split with each side winning once and one draw. Their two most recent meetings have both come at the World Cup, with the two sides drawing in 1998 and Croatia earning a 1-0 win in 2006.

Japan vs. Croatia match facts

• Date: Monday, December 5
• Kickoff Time: 10:00 am ET / 3:00 pm GMT / 2:00 am AEDT (Tue, Dec. 6)
• Location: Al Janoub Stadium
• Official: Ismael Elfath (USA)

Japan vs. Croatia prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+225)
• Against the spread lean: Japan +0.5 (-135)
• Score prediction: Japan 1-1 Croatia

Croatia are defensively disciplined enough not to concede twice against Japan like both Germany and Spain have done after halftime. The cat is somewhat out of the bag on this Japan team, and that should serve Croatia well.

Still, I like the Asian nation to find at least one, and Croatia doesn't have enough going forward against a knockout stage opponent to score more than once. This game will go to extra-time and penalties.

MORE: How to watch Japan vs. Croatia in World Cup Round of 16 play

Japan vs. Croatia: best bet

• Pick: Japan to win either half
• Odds: +150 (Caesars)

I don't trust Croatia to score more than one goal in this game, and thus I think Japan should find a goal as well. I love plus odds of the Samurai Blue to come away in front for at least one of the two halves, although this game will be a war against a team that slows the ball down, meaning Japan will have few chances, but could be primed for a solid counter-attack situation.

Japan vs. Croatia prop bet

• Pick: Under 7.5 total corners
• Odds: +134 (FanDuel)

Neither of these teams put up consistently high corner numbers with attacks focused on wide areas and balls to the end line. Japan is the wild card, and will sometimes crop up with more corners than expected — they had six against Germany, for example — but they also put up a goose egg against Spain.

Croatia, however, the team expected to hold much of the possession, is a team that plods along and consistently does not put up big corner totals. With the European side looking to dictate the flow of the game, there is little threat to this total.

Japan vs. Croatia flier bet

• Pick: Croatia to win 1H / Japan to win 2H
• Odds: +1000 (Caesars)

Japan's done it twice already against European opposition, why not a third time? Their first-half game plan against both Germany and Spain was to make it to halftime, and in doing so, they absorbed significant pressure but conceded only once.

After lulling their opponent to sleep, they sprung to life, taking down the giants with one clean arrow to the back of the ankle. It would be inexcusable for Croatia to fall into the same trap with now plenty of evidence on what their opponents may try, but Japan have clearly come with a game-plan and are executing it well.

Japan vs. Croatia live stream, TV channel

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This Round of 16 match will be played at the Al Janoub Stadium. Here's how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.