Few people gave them a chance on World Cup opening night against Norway, but co-hosts New Zealand shocked the world when they defeated their highly fancied opponents Norway 1-0 in Auckland.
It was a historic night for New Zealand football, with a record crowd for a football match in the country as well as recording their first ever win at the World Cup.
However, the Football Ferns were brought back down to earth with a bump in their second match as they suffered a 1-0 loss to the Philippines, who had never won a World Cup match before. A goalless draw between Switzerland and Norway means there will be everything to play for on matchday three.
The Sporting News analyses the different scenarios facing New Zealand, and how they will be able to secure their qualification to the World Cup Round of 16.
MORE: How the Philippines shocked New Zealand at the World Cup
How can New Zealand qualify from Group A?
New Zealand sit second in Group A, with Switzerland ahead of them by one point. The top two teams in the group qualify for the Round of 16.
The results over the first two rounds of games mean any of the four teams can still progress to the knockout phase depending on results on matchday three, when New Zealand face Switzerland and Norway take on the Philippines.
The Football Ferns have their World Cup future in their own hands. If they beat Switzerland, they are guaranteed to reach the Round of 16; that result would also see them top the group unless the Philippines beat Norway and end up with a superior goal difference.
If New Zealand draw with Switzerland, things get more complicated. In that scenario, the Philippines would top the group if they beat Norway, with Switzerland going through in second place. If Norway win that match by two goals or more, then they would be second in the group, above New Zealand on goal difference and behind Switzerland by a point.
If New Zealand lose to Switzerland, the Swiss will go through as group winners, and the Philippines would only need a point against Norway to take second place. Norway would still need to win their final match even if New Zealand lose, but they would no longer need to worry about goal difference. In other words, if New Zealand are beaten by Switzerland, their tournament is over.
MORE: Group A standings and schedule
Have New Zealand ever qualified for the World Cup Round of 16?
Should New Zealand qualify for the Round of 16, it would be the first time in World Cup history the Football Ferns have qualified for the knockout rounds of a World Cup.
Despite featuring in every tournament since 2007 as well as the first edition in 1991, New Zealand had previously failed to win a World Cup match, drawing three games and losing 12.
Their previous best appearance came in 2015 where they drew twice in a group featuring Canada, Netherlands and China, a record they have already surpassed after one match at the 2023 tournament.
New Zealand group stage schedule
New Zealand's final match of the group will see them travel to the South Island city of Dunedin when they take on Switzerland in a huge game. Defeat for the Football Ferns will see them out of the World Cup; a win will guarantee progress to the knockouts.
| Date | Match | Stadium |
|---|---|---|
| July 30 | New Zealand vs Switzerland | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
MORE: World Cup attendance tracker, record crowds in Australia and New Zealand
Potential Round of 16 opponents if New Zealand finish first in Group A
Should the Football Ferns top Group A, they would then face the runners-up of Group C, which features Spain, Japan, Costa Rica and Zambia. Spain are sitting in second place, but Japan are seen as the most likely team to be in second at the end of the group stages.
Their journey would get much harder in the quarterfinals, as they face a potential matchup against tournament favourites and back-to-back winners USA.
| Stage | Date | Opponent | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round of 16 | August 5 | Runner up Group D | Eden Park |
| Quarterfinal | August 11 | Winner of match between 1E/2G | Wellington Regional Stadium |
| Semifinal | August 15 | Winner of quarterfinal two | Eden Park |
| Third placed-playoff* | August 19 | Loser of semifinal two | Brisbane Stadium |
| Final | August 20 | Winner of semifinal two | Stadium Australia |
*If New Zealand lose in semifinal
Potential round of 16 opponents if New Zealand finish second in Group A
Should New Zealand finish second in Group A, they would then face the winners of Group C in a Round of 16 match in Wellington, which is highly likely to be a strong Spain side.
Should they navigate that hurdle, they would then play in a quarterfinal match in Auckland, with potential opponents including Brazil, France and the Netherlands.
| Stage | Date | Opponent | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round of 16 | August 5 | Winner of Group C | Wellington Regional Stadium |
| Quarterfinal | August 11 | Winner of match between 1G/2E | Eden Park |
| Semifinal | August 15 | Winner of quarterfinal two | Eden Park |
| Third placed-playoff* | August 19 | Loser of semifinal two | Brisbane Stadium |
| Final | August 20 | Winner of semifinal two | Stadium Australia |
