FC Barcelona are facing a big five days coming up with a couple of high-stakes matches that could define their season.
Ahead of this weekend's El Clasico at the Bernabeu, the Blaugrana face Inter Milan in UEFA Champions League play, with Xavi's side in desperate need of a win.
Barcelona sit third in what is considered this tournament's Group of Death, three points back of their opponent and six behind Bayern Munich. With no hope of catching the German leaders, they must focus squarely on topping Inter. Defeat against the Italian side would leave Barcelona essentially eliminated with two matches left to play in the group stage, while a draw would also leave them in dire straits.
The match comes at an inopportune time. On the heels of a controversial defeat at the San Siro last week, it is clear that the once prolific attack has been stifled over the past few weeks after a sensational start to the season. It will be up to Xavi to restart the ignition with so much on the line so early in the season.
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Barcelona vs. Inter betting odds
Despite the loss in Milan last week, Barcelona are considered heavy favorites to win at home. The Blaugrana have been a force at the Camp Nou this season, with the season-opening 0-0 draw against Rayo Vallecano proving the only blemish on an otherwise perfect home record across all competitions.
The betting market also expects plenty of goals, with both teams to score slightly favored, while the over 2.5 goals total sports a massive lean.
The spread (handicap) is set at 1.5 goals, further indicating how the market believe the hosts will dominate the match.
| Caesars | Sports Interaction | SkyBet | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | -235 | 1.40 | 2/5 |
| Draw | +370 | 4.95 | 15/4 |
| Inter win | +625 | 6.55 | 13/2 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -125 / -105 | 1.71 / 1.90 | 8/11, 1/1 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -170 / +140 | 1.57 / 2.36 | 8/15, 11/8 |
| Barcelona -1.5 | +110 | 2.11 | — |
| Inter +1.5 | -140 | 1.70 | — |
Barcelona vs. Inter recent history
- Barcelona vs. Inter all-time: Barcelona 8 wins, Inter 3 wins, 4 draws
While these teams don't have a rich history against each other, they have been matched up several times in the Champions League over the last decade-plus.
They met in each of 2019 and 2018, with Barcelona collecting three wins and a draw in those four group stage matchups. They also met in the 2009/10 semifinals, with Inter advancing via a 4-1 aggregate scoreline en route to Jose Mourinho's title.
Inter won the first match from this year's group stage matchup just last week, a 1-0 victory behind a goal from Hakan Calhanoglu just before halftime.
Barcelona vs. Inter last five matches
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 4, 2022 | UEFA Champions League Group Stage | Inter 1-0 Barcelona |
| Dec. 10, 2019 | UEFA Champions League Group Stage | Inter 1-2 Barcelona |
| Oct. 2, 2019 | UEFA Champions League Group Stage | Barcelona 2-1 Inter |
| Nov. 6, 2018 | UEFA Champions League Group Stage | Inter 1-1 Barcelona |
| Oct. 24, 2018 | UEFA Europa League Group Stage | Barcelona 2-0 Inter |
Barcelona vs. Inter prediction
Barcelona will be absolutely desperate to win this match. With just three points through their first three matches, Xavi's side is suddenly on the verge of crashing out of the Champions League in the group stage for a second straight year. Victory for the home side is an absolute must.
Yet the attack has completely dried up. After posting impressive goal totals through the first two months of the season, Barcelona scored just one goal against Mallorca, none against Inter, and one against Celta Vigo in their last three matches.
It's an anomaly. The Blaugrana's only real blip in that stretch was the Mallorca game, weirdly beaten on expected goals (xG) totals. Otherwise, against Celta Vigo they pummeled the opposition through the first half and sat back with their lead, and against Inter they had a goal ruled out by VAR and were later unlucky to be denied what was a clear penalty.
Inter are a strong defensive side, and should keep it close, but Barcelona should overwhelm the Italian club at home to return last week's favor and set up a wild finish in the Champions League Group of Death.
- Moneyline lean: Barcelona (-235 on Caesars)
- Against the spread lean (handicap): Inter +1.5 (-140 on Caesars)
- Scoreline prediction: Barcelona 1-0 Inter
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Barcelona vs. Inter best bets & expert analysis
Barcelona vs. Inter best bet
- Pick: Barcelona to win to nil/Barcelona only to score (+155/2.55 on Sports Interaction)
While all the talk is on whether the Barcelona attack will show up, the talk amongst Blaugrana fans should instead be about the club's fantastic defensive unit. Barcelona lead La Liga with just a single goal conceded on 5.66 xGA (expected goals allowed), and while that will likely come back to Earth at some point in league play, they remain excellent in the Champions League as well.
Inter won at home thanks to a messy Hakan Calhanoglu goal just before halftime. But overall, Inter's attack was stifled at home, holding just 28 percent possession while producing just five shots totaling 0.18 xG. Bayern managed to put up much better attacking numbers, but nearly all that production came in one 15-minute stretch early in the second half after Barcelona had dominated the opening frame. One short period against a Champions League title contender can be forgiven.
Barcelona be without Jules Kounde at right-back, likely forcing Sergi Roberto to the wide area, but against an inconsistent Inter attack which will take the field in a very hostile environment, the Barcelona defense can be relied upon to produce.
Barcelona vs. Inter prop: First-half moneyline
- Prop: Barcelona to win first half (-120 on Caesars)
Barcelona have been stifled in their last three games, but there is a trend we can follow: They play significantly better in the first half.
Looking at their weekend game against Celta Vigo, they won 1-0 on a 17th minute Pedri goal. Barca put up 2.01 xG in that match, 1.85 of that coming in the first half. After the break, they managed just two shots for a 0.16 xG total.
On the full La Liga season, their first-half to second-half expected goals splits are almost even, a surprising number as usually expected goals take a significant bump in the second half as defensive units tire and forwards push higher to finish games off. Their finishing in the first half is also much better based on Expected Goals on Target, a post-shot number that accounts for shot placement and goalkeeper positioning.
While Barcelona will likely win this game by the final whistle, the first-half moneyline should provide much more value.
Barcelona vs. Inter prop: Corners
- Prop: Under 9.5 total corners (-120)
Against Inter last week, Barcelona went into panic mode seemingly immediately as Inter harassed the visiting attackers at the San Siro. Barcelona pumped an astonishing 50 crosses and 13 corners into the Inter box, to very little success.
Clearly, that did not work. Robert Lewandowski was isolated up front, and the pair of Ousmane Dembele and Raphinha are at their best on the dribble, cutting inside, while Barcelona also feed on Pedri and Gavi sending line-breaking passes through the middle.
Barcelona average nearly seven corners a match in La Liga play, but that has come down of late, as they produced marks of six, five, and six in their last three league matches. Xavi will likely change his strategy to attack Inter in a more premeditated and less frenetic manner, and we can take advantage of the high corner total as a result of last week's anomaly.
