Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for La Liga clash

Barcelona have a tough test to keep hold of their top spot in the La Liga table as they travel to the Spanish capital to take on Atletico Madrid.

The Blaugrana will be further tested as they live for three matches without striker Robert Lewandowski, who was suspended for gestures towards an official and will miss this match plus the next two.

Barcelona are coming off a wild and nervy 4-3 win in the Copa del Rey over Intercity FC that required extra time to complete. Ansu Fati scored the winning goal in the 103rd minute, sending Barcelona through past a lower-tier side with stars in their eyes.

Atletico Madrid are fourth in the table, hoping to solidify a Champions League place as they return to form. Diego Simeone's side have secured four straight wins, although three of those are in the Copa del Rey. Still, a 2-0 victory over Elche in their league return from the World Cup break last weekend is a positive start towards a more consistent showing domestically.

Following Real Madrid's 2-1 defeat to Villarreal on Saturday, Barca will also be looking to take advantage of the situation with a win sending them three points clear.

MORE: La Liga top goal scorers challenging Robert Lewandowski for Pichichi Trophy

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona odds

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), & Ladbrokes (Australia).

Barcelona are favored in this match, but they still sport plus odds as bookmakers give Atletico Madrid a fighting chance thanks to their recent good form.

Part of that will be down to the individual players available for selection. Robert Lewandowski's absence certainly plays a factor, while Atletico sport Antoine Griezmann, one of the best players at the 2022 World Cup and in great form.

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: 3 things to know

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona team news

The biggest question for Diego Simeone is how to deploy his three attackers in Antoine Griezmann, Alvaro Morata, and Joao Felix. Rumors continue to swirl about Felix's future at Atleti, and that could affect his standing within the squad. Griezmann was sensational at the World Cup in a deeper role, and he could be used in midfield, allowing the other two to start up top. Mario Hermoso is suspended after being sent off in their last La Liga match.

One player who won't be involved for Barcelona is Robert Lewandowski who is in the midst of a three-match suspension after being sent off in a match before the World Cup break. His ban was put off briefly for appeal, but it was upheld in court, so he is out of action for three games. Memphis Depay could take that spot up front, having started midweek against Intercity FC, or Ferran Torres could slide over into a striker role. 34-year-old Sergio Busquets could be sat in favor of Frenkie de Jong after he was deployed midweek against Intercity FC. Jordi Alba is suspended, meaning Alex Balde is likely to deputize at left-back. Nico Gonzalez will miss time after surgery on a broken foot.

"I think we need to work on killing off games — we need to keep pushing."

— Ronald Araujo on Barça's extra-time win over Intercity in the last 32 of the Copa del Rey pic.twitter.com/cjGc50VzP9

— FC Barcelona (@FCBarcelona) January 5, 2023

MORE: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona live stream, TV channel, lineups, betting odds for La Liga clash

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona key stats

• Prior to a 4-2 win 11 months ago, Barcelona were winless in their last five matches against Atletico Madrid across all competitions (two losses and three draws), with the final four of those all coming in league play.
• Antoine Griezmann has collected 3.00 xA this La Liga season, but 2.36 of that has come in the last eight matches, with 22 of his 27 chances created coming in that span as well.
• In the 254 minutes without Robert Lewandowski this season in La Liga play, Barcelona have scored seven goals, a 2.5 goals per 90 rate, as compared to 2.0 goals per 90 with him on the field. They have also not conceded a single goal with Lewandowski off the field this season.

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona match facts

• Date: Sunday, January 8
• Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. GMT / 9 a.m. AEDT (Mon, Jan. 9)
• Location: Wanda Metropolitano
• Official: Jose Munuera

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+240)
• Against the spread lean: Atletico Madrid +0.5 (-165)
• Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Barcelona

Barcelona weren't exactly poor against Espanyol last time out, but they missed a host of quality chances in front of net. They won't get nearly that same volume of opportunities in this match, and without Lewandowski's presence, their goalscoring abilities will be reduced further.

Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, are in good form and have achieved results against Barcelona in the recent past. This game could be a prime opportunity for Atleti to snatch points and set themselves up for a real top four run.

MORE: Updated Premier League table with breakdowns of every race

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Best bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — Second Half
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

This is one carryover from the 2022 World Cup, where we profited greatly by predicting the bulk of the goalscoring to come after halftime.

From an attacking standpoint, Barcelona are a more evenly-weighted team between the first and second halves than most sides, but otherwise, everything points towards a second-half show. Defensively, Barcelona are under far more pressure in the second half, conceding just 3.86 xGA to start but 7.06 xGA after the break.

Atletico Madrid in particular are skewed massively towards the latter 45 minutes, as they put up just 7.4 xG and concede 7.22 xGA before the break, but explode for 12.96 xG and 9.82 xGA after halftime. Most recently, they were scoreless at the break against Elche at home before a pair of second-half goals produced a 2-0 victory.

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prop bet

• Pick: Alvaro Morata anytime goalscorer
• Odds: TBD — odds not yet available

The Spanish international has carried over his good World Cup form back with him to Atletico Madrid and is primed for a big second-half run. After scoring three times in Qatar to finish as Spain's top goalscorer, Morata bagged a goal in his La Liga return against Elche last weekend.

Even when not scoring, Morata does his best to find the back of the net, ripping off five shots against CD Arenteiro in the Copa del Rey and putting four of them on target. He has at least three shots in each of his last three La Liga appearances, and scored in his last start against Barcelona, bagging Atleti's second in a 3-2 win at the 2020 Supercopa semifinals.

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona flier bet

• Pick: Atletico Madrid to win from behind
• Odds: +1200 (BetMGM)

Given the earlier discussion in the best bet about Atletico Madrid's second-half preferences in the attacking half, there can be value on the hosts springing an upset in comeback fashion. Add in Barcelona's propensity to collapse after the break, there's plenty of meat on this bone.

Atletico Madrid has even done as much recently, falling behind early against CD Arenteiro in the Copa del Rey on December 22 before completing a comeback for a 3-1 win, proving a propensity for exactly this kind of result.

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona live stream, TV channel

Here's how to watch all of the action from this match in some of the major territories:

MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with fuboTV in USA | Canada