Argentina's win over Mexico in their second World Cup match reignited hopes of Lionel Messi finally getting his hands on his first World Cup trophy as he plays in the tournament for the final time.
But the consequences of the opening day shock defeat to Saudi Arabia are still being felt, with the Albiceleste still far from assured of a place in the knockout stages.
Argentina wrap up Group C with a tricky tie against leaders Poland and there are various permutations that could see them crash out rather than progress.
Here, we take a look at what Lionel Scaloni's men need to do in order to move into the latter stages of the tournament in Qatar.
MORE: Poland vs. Argentina best bets, odds, and prediction
Updated Group C table
Argentina enter the final day of Group C play with destiny in their own hands: A win against Poland and they're through, likely as group winners depending on the result of the other game.
However, if Argentina come away with any other result against Poland that's not a win, things get complicated.
| Team | Points | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Poland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| 2. Argentina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| 3. Saudi Arabia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| 4. Mexico | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
MORE: Watch every World Cup match live with fuboTV (U.S.-only free trial)
How Argentina can qualify for World Cup Round of 16
Argentina can advance to the Round of 16 as a Group C winner or Group C runner-up only if they win or draw against Poland. A loss would bring an end to Lionel Messi's World Cup dreams.
What happens if Argentina win vs. Poland?
A victory is guaranteed to see Argentina qualify as first place or second place.
Argentina would finish as Group C winners if Saudi Arabia lose or draw against Mexico. If the Saudi team wins, it would come down to tiebreakers, which could see Argentina finish as group runners-up if they don't win the tiebreaker.
What happens if Argentina lose vs. Poland?
This scenario is simple. If Argentina lose to Poland, they will be eliminated.
What happens if Argentina draw vs. Poland?
In the event Argentina draws against Poland, fans will be paying close attention to the result from the other game:
If Saudi Arabia win vs. Mexico: Argentina are eliminated in this scenario because Saudi Arabia and Poland would both have more points and qualify in the top two spots.
If Mexico win vs. Saudi Arabia: Argentina and Mexico would be tied on four points each and the team that advances as runner-up will come down to tiebreakers, starting with goal difference. Argentina fans will be hoping Mexico only win by the minimum and don't score many goals.
If Mexico and Saudi Arabia draw: Argentina advance. Although Argentina and Saudi Arabia would be tied on four points, Argentina would have a better goal difference (+1 vs. -1) and edge them out for second place.
MORE: World Cup 2022 standings: Updated table for every group in Qatar
Odds for Argentina to qualify for World Cup knockout stage
Despite having kicked off the tournament with a shock defeat to Saudi Arabia and entering the final day behind Poland in the standings, Argentina are still strong favourites to progress from Group C as winners.
Odds to win Group C
| BetMGM (USA) | Sports Interaction (Canada) | SkyBet (UK) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | -250 | 1.49 | 4/9 |
| Poland | +190 | 2.78 | 2/1 |
| Saudi Arabia | +1200 | 14.00 | 12/1 |
| Mexico | — | — | — |
Odds to qualify from Group C
| BetMGM (USA) | Sports Interaction (Canada) | SkyBet (UK) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | -700 | 1.21 | 1/6 |
| Poland | -275 | 1.32 | 2/5 |
| Saudi Arabia | +240 | 3.48 | 11/4 |
| Mexico | +260 | 4.00 | 5/2 |
World Cup group stage tiebreakers
If teams are tied on points in their group — three for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss — then the following tiebreakers will be used, as outlined in the official tournament rules (page 21).
Overall goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed) is the chief tiebreaker between teams level on points. After that, overall goals scored comes into play.
If neither of those two criteria can separate teams, they move to head-to-head results, head-to-head goal difference, and head-to-head goals scored.
- Overall goal difference: Superior goal difference in all group matches (goals scored minus goals conceded);
- Overall goals scored: Most goals scored in all group matches;
- Head-to-head points: Most points in group matches between tied teams only;
- Head-to-head goal difference: In group matches between tied teams only;
- Head-to-head goals scored: Most goals scored in group matches between tied teams only;
- Disciplinary points ('Fair Play'): As per a FIFA formula based on yellow and red cards;
- Drawing of lots.
