Lionel Messi and defending champions Argentina get their 2026 World Cup cycle underway in earnest with a home qualifier against Ecuador on Thursday.
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup expanding from 32 to 48 teams, confederations have had to reorganize their qualification formats to create more slots to fill out the larger field. However, South America is the one exception, keeping their round-robin format despite their allotment increasing from 4.5 World Cup slots to 6.5.
Six nations will advance to the World Cup from South America, while another will qualify for the expanded intercontinental playoffs, with CONMEBOL qualification starting now and running a full two years. By the end of September 2025, the teams heading to the 2026 tournament will be known.
Messi has begun life at Major League Soccer club Inter Miami in white-hot form, and the U.S. club will have to trek on without him as he takes the field for his country for the 176th time.
LIVE BLOG: Follow along with highlights & commentary as Argentina opens World Cup qualifying
Argentina vs Ecuador match facts
- Date: Thursday, September 7, 2023
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET / 1 a.m. BST (Fri, Sep. 8) / 10 a.m. AEST (Fri, Sep. 8)
- Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires, Argentina)
- Official: Wilmar Roldan (COL)
- Last meeting: Ecuador 1-1 Argentina (Mar. 29, 2022 | World Cup qualifying)
Argentina vs Ecuador prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Argentina (-275)
- Handicap lean: Ecuador +1.5 (-135)
- Score prediction: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
While Argentina are clearly the "better" side, it's not in the defending champions' DNA to blow teams apart, especially in the physical South American confederation.
Indeed, through the 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign, Argentina won 11 of their 17 matches, but just five of those victories came by a multiple-goal margin of victory. Ecuador were not amongst that small group, bookending Argentina's qualifying slate with a narrow 1-0 defeat and a 1-1 draw.
Despite the form Lionel Messi is in, and the positive play for others in the Argentina squad, don't expect to see this match get out of hand.
| Argentina win | Draw | Ecuador win | Both teams to score Y / N | Over / Under 2.5 goals | ARG -1.5 | ECU +1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (USA) | -250 | +340 | +850 | +155 / -225 | +105 / -150 | +110 | -160 |
| Sports Interaction (Canada) | -306 | +350 | +800 | +137 / -222 | +101 / -134 | +107 | -141 |
| Unibet (Australia) | 1.37 | 4.80 | 9.50 | 2.23 / 1.61 | 1.88 / 1.92 | — | — |
| Dafabet (India) | 1.38 | 5.20 | 9.00 | 2.23 / 1.66 | 1.84 / 1.98 | 2.11 | 1.74 |
Argentina vs Ecuador: best bet
- Pick: 1st half result & total — Argentina to win & under 2.5 goals
- Odds: +125 (BetMGM)
Argentina's modus operandi is to take an early lead and then snuff the life out of a match. The Albiceleste had a halftime lead in 10 of their 17 CONMEBOL qualifiers through the 2020 cycle, and in all but one of their 2022 World Cup games.
Expect them to take the same approach here, as they look to get an early goal and then use that as a foundation for the remainder of the match.
Argentina vs Ecuador prop bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 goals
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
For all their attacking talent, Argentina make sure to shore things up defensively first, and then build forward. To put it simply, they don't blow other teams out.
Argentina matches generally don't get out of hand from a score perspective, especially in CONMEBOL play. Three of their four friendlies since the World Cup ended 2-0, and looking back to World Cup qualifying, 10 of their 17 matches ended under this total, including both games against Ecuador.
From an Ecuador perspective, those defensive numbers are even more stark. Dating back to the start of 2022, 12 of their 17 matches across all competitions have gone under the 2.5 goal mark, and four of the five that went over were friendlies. Only the 2-1 defeat to Senegal that knocked Ecuador out of the World Cup went over amongst their seven competitive matches in that span.
Argentina vs Ecuador live stream, TV channel
Following a late agreement, broadcast rights for Argentina's World Cup qualifiers in the United States have been secured by Telemundo and Univision. That means viewers in the USA should be able to stream this match via ViX, TelevisaUnivision's Spanish-language service.
It will now also be broadcast on TV in Spanish language via Telemundo in the United States. Fubo subscribers can also access that channel.
The match is not set to be available globally to regions including Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
CONMEBOL has thus far decided to sell the broadcast rights to 2026 World Cup qualifiers on an individual basis, allowing the host nation's federation for each match to sell the rights themselves.
MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA
Streaming service Fanatiz has acquired the rights to certain CONMEBOL matches in this September international window, but neither Argentina match is amongst that group to this point.
