Australia faces off against Spain in the Semi-Finals of the 2019 FIBA World Cup on Friday as the Boomers look to stay undefeated and reach their first-ever final in a major international tournament. You can catch the action on Friday at 6:00pm AEST on Fox Sports and streaming on Kayo Sports
While the Boomers have come up big in their run to the Semi-Finals including impressive wins over Lithuania, France and Czech Republic, they're about to face a deep and experienced Spain team that's on a different level than anyone they've played thus far.
MORE: Boomers can revenge for 2016 against Spain
What are the biggest keys to Friday's monumental clash? And more importantly, who wins?
Can Patty Mills stay hot?
Australia's hopes begin and end with Patty Mills who has had the tournament of his life.
We should have seen it coming following his 30-point outburst in Australia's exhibition upset of the United States in Melbourne prior to the tournament. As it turns out, Mills was just getting warmed up as he's carried the momentum from that night all the way through to the Semi-Finals.
MORE: Patty Mills is the best player in the FIBA World Cup
The veteran guard has scored at least 15 points in every game so far in the tournament and is averaging 22.2 points per game, picking up right where he left off in the 2016 Olympics in which he poured in over 21 points per game and finished as one of the tournament's leading scorers.
He's been far more than just a volume scorer too, shooting over 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from the 3-point line and 90 percent from the free throw line. For what it's worth, the only guys to ever do that in the NBA while also scoring at least 20 a game are Larry Bird, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki and Stephen Curry. Mills is essentially doing on the world stage what only four of the biggest names have ever done on the NBA stage.
Sure, the FIBA game isn't the NBA but that's besides the point. The Boomers point guard has been absolutely incredible and if they are going to knock off Spain, he'll need to keep it up.
Can Delly slow down Rubio?
For as good as Mills as been for Australia, Ricky Rubio has been nearly as good for Spain. Not only has he been Spain's leading scorer, he also ranks among the tournament leaders in assists.
Given the load that Mills carries on offence, Matthew Dellavedova will likely draw the assignment of making life as miserable as possible for Rubio. Delly isn't exactly out there to light it up and get buckets. He did after all shoot just 3-15 in the Quarter-Finals against Czech Republic and is shooting just 37% from the field. Throw out the opening game against Canada and Dellavedova has shot a cringe-worthy 26%.
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None of that matters if he's able to hound Rubio who controls everything for a Spain side that's struggled to score in this tournament, ranking just 15th in points per game which ranks dead last among he four semifinalists. Almost 80% of Spain's baskets have come off assists with Rubio responsible for more of them than anyone. It's a Spain side that's still potent, but lacks some of the firepower of past editions.
Slow down Rubio and you slow down Spain. For that reason, Delly figures to play a major role in Australia's defensive game plan.
Battle of the bigs
There figures to be plenty of banging and bruising in a battle of the bigs that pits Aron Baynes and Andrew Bogut against recently crowned NBA champion Marc Gasol.
When these teams met back at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, this is where the game was ultimately decided.
Patty Mills went off for 30.
Ricky Rubio was held in check and finished with just three points.
Neither of those mattered as the Boomers fell 89-88 in part because neither Baynes nor Bogut were any match for Pau Gasol who scored 31 points. Marc didn't play in that game and is not the same type of scorer that his older brother is, but still has more than enough game to be the difference maker. Already in this tournament he's outplayed Nikola Jokic and at times has been Spain's best passer as well.
Limiting Gasol means making him work on the offensive end. While Bogut might be challenged to fill that role, Baynes is certainly capable of applying some pressure on the 34-year-old Spanish giant and making him work. His two best games in this tournament have come against similarly impressive NBA centres.
First he lit up Lithuania's Jonas Valanciunas for 21 points...
🔥 21 PTS, 13 REB, 27 EFF... @aronbaynes' DOUBLE-DOUBLE lifted the Boomers to a 87-82 win over Lithuania!#AustraliaGotGame #FIBAWC @BasketballAus pic.twitter.com/0cJqkoUte5
— Basketball World Cup (@FIBAWC) September 6, 2019
... before doing it again from downtown vs France's Rudy Gobert.
Top 5 three pointers by Aron Baynes vs Team France pic.twitter.com/NEh09cy383
— sunOfficial Aron Baynes Fan Club (@BaynesFanClub) September 10, 2019
In that back-and-forth affair against France, Baynes drilled 5-of-6 from beyond the 3-point line as Gobert wasn't quite comfortable chasing him out far from the hoop. If he can do the same to Gasol, Baynes could be the ultimate X-factor yet again in a massive battle of the bigs.
Which Joe Ingles shows up?
It's been an up and down stint for the Boomers for Ingles dating back to training camp. One game he looks like the top-notch talent he is throughout the NBA season with the Utah Jazz, one game he struggles to make any noticeable impact.
His game log is truly confounding.
So far this tournament he's finished an assist short of a triple-double against Senegal and dropped 23 points against France.
He's also turned in back-to-back games in which he shot a combined 1-9 from the field and scored a grand total of four points.
Of course, it's about far more than scoring for Ingles, who finds multiple ways to impact the game, the most important of which is playmaking. Early on in the tournament, he ranked among the leaders in assists as he dished out 8.7 per game during the first round of pool play, which ranked first in the entire tournament. That figure has been nearly cut in a third since, as he's averaged just 3.0 assists per game in three games since.
Just as Ingles has run hot and cold, Spain has a number of players that have been equally as inconsistent. Juancho Hernangomez, Victor Claver, Sergio Llull and Rudy Fernandez have all at times played the part of significant Ingles-like X-factor. While Spain has a number of players that could rise to the occasion with a big night, Australia doesn't have another high ceiling playmaker outside of Mills and Ingles.
Which version of Ingles shows up on Friday will go a long way towards determining who plays for the gold medal on Sunday.
Prediction
Spain is the favourite as most oddsmakers have it pegged as a 3-point favourite entering Friday's contest.
There's no denying that when it comes to experience, Spain has the edge. A perennial powerhouse and a gold medal contender in every major tournament over the last 15 years, Spain knows what it takes to win these types of games. Nobody on that roster will be afraid of the moment and there's nothing about these high stakes that will fluster what is perhaps the most experienced and tight-knit team in the world.
But this isn't quite the same level of Spain team as we've seen in years past and it's missing some key pieces.
MORE: Why the Boomers can win the whole thing
Nikola Mirotic, the second-leading scorer in Spain's win over the Boomers back in 2016, isn't playing.
Neither is Serge Ibaka, Sergio Rodriguez, Jose Calderon or Alex Abrines.
Then there's the feeling that Australia is simply ripe for the moment. The Boomers have conjured up something special with this group and seem to have found a rhythm spurred on by Mr. Spur himself, Patty Mills.
Every once in a while, a team comes along that takes the world by storm and rides the wave of a player completely in the zone. That team is Australia and that player is Mills. They may be underdogs, but I'll take the Boomers prevailing 87-85 in a game that comes down to the final possession.
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