The NBA season tips off around 100 days from now, and we have a fairly good picture of each team’s depth charts with the smoke largely cleared from free agency. Of course, the proverbial elephant in the room — Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving’s final 2022 destinations — remains a mystery that could easily shift the entire landscape of the league once solved.
Still, we can surmise the expected roles (and role changes) for each NBA team. That means we can also determine the fantasy basketball value and value shifts of most of the league’s players. It’s never too early to get a jump-start on player rankings, expected draft positions, and estimated auction values.
MORE: Free agency grades | Five biggest free agency winners
So, let’s jump right to our most dramatic risers and steepest fallers in the wild world of fantasy basketball values.
Fantasy basketball rankings 2022: Risers, fallers after free agency
Rudy Gobert, C, Timberwolves (Last year’s ADP: 24.5)
The general fantasy consensus from the massive Gobert trade to Minnesota seems to be negative. Many feel that the big man’s minutes and offensive opportunities will decrease alongside franchise cornerstones Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. However, that logic might not be entirely accurate.
Gobert fills a humongous need in the Wolves’ depth chart. Many Minnesota fans felt their organization was one big man short after Ant’s breakout sophomore season and a trip back to the playoffs for just the second time since the Kevin Garnett days.
Gobert will remain the defensive anchor of his team, with Chris Finch’s squad needing his rim protection and leadership even more than Utah did. The blocks will still be there, easily, and increased ‘new-team’ energy and motivation could actually increase defensive counting stats. The rebounds should be, too — you might think KAT will ding the center’s boards count, but more than likely the perennial All-Star will just defer to Gobert on the glass.
That leaves offense. Gobert probably starts as no higher than the No. 4 scoring option, which is nothing new to the three-time All-Star. He’s been taking a backseat to high-usage players like Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, and even Bojan Bogdanovic the past couple years — being behind KAT, Ant, and D’Angelo Russell should be similar. Finch won’t draw much up for Rudy beyond high screen-and-rolls, but the big man can still easily maintain his baseline scoring averages in the low-to-mid teens.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Gobert should be taken by the end of the second round and valued around $35-$38. While others say he has declined in value and his numbers could regress, consider capitalizing and seizing his potential early second-round value in the mid-to-late second. Just know that your build should automatically become punt-free throws if you prioritize a field-goal percentage, rebound, and defensive stats guy early. Also a low-turnover guy, Gobert is much more valuable than most give him credit for — owners often just don’t build around him correctly.
Malcolm Brogdon, G, Celtics (2021 ADP: 59.7)
Celtics President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens caught a big fish when he traded for Brogdon last week amid the free agency frenzy. The reigning Eastern Conference Champions obtained a very good player who fills a lot of voids felt by Boston in the Finals: Playmaking, shooting, and ball security.
The problem: Stevens and coach Ime Udoka have suggested that the Celtics will continue to use the ‘big’ starting five they rolled with throughout the playoffs. That leaves Brogdon as a high-functioning sixth man, not a role often bestowed upon players coming off seasons with averages of 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 0.8 steals per game. The former Pacer and Buck also struggles to stay healthy — he has averaged just 51.6 games per season over the past five years. He should be a massive difference-maker for Boston when he’s healthy, but at the same time, his fantasy production could take a hit.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Brogdon mostly went in the fifth round or earlier last season, but it’s tough to imagine grabbing him until the sixth or seventh this season. His usage will be down, as will be his scoring and threes. He might actually improve upon his 5.9 assists per game with all the scoring options around him, but don’t expect an increase in much more beyond that.
Dejounte Murray, G, Hawks (2021 ADP: 45)
Murray is the other top-tier guard on the move this offseason after Gregg Popovich and the Spurs traded the All-Star to the Hawks for Danilo Gallinari and a flurry of picks last week. This move automatically improves the Hawks on both ends of the floor, but it doesn’t move the needle in the right direction for Murray’s fantasy ceiling.
A 2018 All-Defensive selection, Murray immediately improves Atlanta’s woeful backcourt defense. However, he will also immediately see a significant decline in offensive opportunities. Hawks superstar Trae Young is one of the best young shot-makers in the NBA, and he’s clearly the franchise player in the ATL. The days of 21.1 points, 9.2 assists, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game — Murray’s averages this past season — have likely come and gone.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Murray will be a popular pick in the third or fourth round, but he’s likely more of a fifth- or sixth-round value. Don’t draft him based on what he just did this past season — draft him based on what he projects to contribute this season. Let someone else be disappointed with his regression and poor return on the early-round investment.
Jalen Brunson, G, Knicks (2021 ADP: 171.5)
Brunson went from a widely-undrafted asset to a massive fantasy commodity in a matter of weeks last season, thanks in large part to the tutelage of Mavericks coach Jason Kidd. Brunson also went from a $1.8 million salary to a $104 million guaranteed contract. Not too shabby. But the Knicks took a huge risk paying the four-year vet to be their alpha floor general.
It’s easy to love Brunson. He’s an underdog who clearly works his butt off and finds a way to score or make plays through sheer willpower. However, the Knicks are and have been an abject disaster for point guards throughout the past decade, with chaotic half-court offense and inefficient scorers like Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett. Brunson’s usage will go through the roof, but so will his turnover numbers. At the same time, his field-goal percentage could plummet. He still doesn’t shoot the three-ball very well either. It pains me to say, but Brunson likely makes my ‘Do Not Draft’ list this fall.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: The massive spike in production last season combined with a huge upgrade in role and minutes will have Brunson propelling into the fourth round (or earlier). I can’t possibly see him returning value at that ADP. Personally, I’d wait until the sixth or seventh round, as I’m not overly impressed with his per-36 counting stats or his numbers without Luka Doncic on the floor down the stretch of 2022.
Will Barton, G/F, Wizards (2021 ADP: 150.4) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Nuggets (undrafted)
We’re lumping Barton and Caldwell-Pope together here, as they were traded for each other and could both see upticks in their fantasy contributions. Barton is a much-needed veteran catch-and-shoot option for Bradley Beal. Similarly, KCP should be a welcome addition to Denver’s half-court offense, which often felt stagnant last season with the exception of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Both these guys will benefit from their changes of scenery.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Barton should return sixth or seventh-round value this season, but remember that he doesn’t do a ton beyond shooting and scoring. KCP provides shooting and some defensive stats, but similarly won’t play as much a role in the assists department with Jokic and Jamal Murray manning the offense.
Kevin Huerter, SG, Kings (2021 ADP: 182)
Many say that Huerter went undervalued in the trade market this offseason, and it’s true that he did land in Sacramento for bubkus. Atlanta got his bloated $65 million contract off their books and enjoyed some addition-by-subtraction with his subpar defense and playmaking.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Don’t buy in. Huerter gives you some threes and strong percentages from long-distance and the free-throw stripe, but his defensive stats have decreased since his strong 2020 playoff run. Let someone else grab Red Velvet.
P.J. Tucker, F, 76ers (2021 ADP: 141)
Tucker is turning 38 this season, and his offensive impacts will remain minimal with Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tobias Harris, and Tyrese Maxey getting the bulk of the touches. The crafty veteran and defensive specialist merits consideration as a late-round role player in deeper leagues, but pass on him if you’re in standard 12-team leagues.
Similarly, pass on Andre Drummond with the Bulls and Gary Payton II with the Blazers, who are both equally one-dimensional (Drummond as a rebounder, Payton as a defender). Don’t crush your scoring, assists, and percentages for gains in one category.
