Fantasy Basketball deep sleepers 2023: Potential breakout players to target late in drafts

Sloan Piva

Fantasy Basketball deep sleepers 2023: Potential breakout players to target late in drafts image

Any fantasy basketball site you read or podcast you listen to includes features about sleepers and breakouts. However, a lot of the time, many of the names mentioned in these columns tend to be well-known by even casual hoops fans. Today we will shine a light on the true diamonds in the rough — the 'deep sleepers' — who could significantly boost the value of your fantasy basketball team this season. 

If you've been following The Sporting News' fantasy hoops coverage over the past couple of weeks, you know we've got rankings, sleepers, and breakouts covered. We highlighted six emerging star candidates we believe could follow in the footsteps of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Mikal Bridges. We held a 14-round industry mock draft with 14 expert analysts from around the world. But today is the first time we have gone way down the board to highlight the potential breakouts from the 100-200 range of your 9-cat player pool.

Don't take blind chances late in drafts — you're not randomly selecting lottery numbers and hoping they hit. Take a look at our favorite late-round targets and allow us to sell you on their upside with relevant research and analysis.

Let's get to the potential fantasy hoops game-changers of the 2023-24 season. Here are our eight favorite deep sleepers and why we project them to be far more valuable than their average draft positions (ADP) suggest.

MORE: Sporting News' 2023 fantasy basketball cheat sheet, draft kit

2023 Fantasy Basketball deep sleepers

Zach Collins, F/C, Spurs (Yahoo rank: 104; Average draft position: 112)

Collins at 112 seems insane. The dude should benefit from Victor Wembanyama's presence in San Antonio, not lose value because of it. All signs point to Gregg Popovich starting Collins at center and using Wemby as a stretch-four — which makes sense given the Spurs stink and they don't want to hurt the No. 1 pick and global star who boosted the value of their organization by a half-billion dollars.

If Collins stays healthy, he's a steal anywhere in the 100s. He's only 25 and coming off his best season with 2022-23 averages of 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists along with shooting splits of 52/37/76. He's a decent shot-blocker and good rebounder, and he passes the ball pretty well for a big. Don't let him dip into the 120s as we've seen in some leagues — he could easily return 8th-round value.

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Wendell Carter Jr., C, Magic (Yahoo rank and ADP: 103)

Don't sleep on Carter, a very dependable rebounder who can score from inside and outside and make the right play more often than not. Anyone who watches Orlando on League Pass knows that WCJ also has underrated passing chops and sometimes surprises with a block or two.

He's still working on improving his defensive metrics, something the Magic will absolutely need if this team expects to contend within the next few years. But in terms of a safe, high-floor center option who won't ding your percentages, Carter seems like a fine draft pick anywhere in the mid-to-late 80s or later.

Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF, Pacers (Yahoo rank: 118; ADP: 125)

If you're looking for scoring upside in the 11th or 12th rounds of your draft — where points are notoriously hard to find — consider queuing up Benny Mathurin. The sixth overall pick of the 2022 NBA Draft quietly averaged 16.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 28.5 minutes last season, ultimately earning All-Rookie First Team honors.

He's still raw — and some would say unpolished — and he's not a great help to builds focused around field goals, three-pointers, assists, turnovers, or defense. But as the kids say, he's a bucket, and a sleeper for Sixth Man of the Year.

Even when his shot isn't on, Mathurin can fall back on his natural ability to draw fouls. He finished his rookie campaign with the 14th-highest free-throw rate in the NBA and knocked down nearly five free throws per game at an 83-percent clip.

Benny's only 20 years old, he plays for a squad that embraces its young assets, and he will continue to see consistent rotational minutes if he can improve on D. Don't hesitate if you need offense anywhere after pick No. 108.

Ausar Thompson, SG/SF, Pistons (Yahoo rank: 134; ADP: 137)

Ausar may not have been picked ahead of twin brother Amen in this year's NBA Draft, but his fantasy ceiling this season seems much higher. Named the MVP of the Overtime Elite basketball league earlier this year and the OE Finals MVP in 2021-22, the dude has excelled at every stage of his pro career so far. And with Monty Williams as his head coach and Cade Cunningham, the young floor leader of this promising Pistons squad, the sky's the limit. 

One of my O.G. hoops-head friends Sheamus recently said Ausar might be the second-best basketball player on the Pistons right now. Honestly, how can I disagree with this take? This dude just averaged 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game and now he's stuffing down alley-oops, showing off his bag, and even running some point for one of the Association's most intriguing young squads. His defense will make him a starter who can neutralize the opponent's top player — his playmaking and explosive athleticism will make it hard for Williams to ever sub out.

Paul Reed, PF/C, 76ers (Yahoo rank: 149; ADP: 195)

People aren't just sleeping on Paul Reed — they're in a full-on comatose state. In case nobody saw, Reed signed an offer sheet with the Utah Jazz during the offseason and Philly quickly matched it to keep him around as the Sixers' primary backup big. He has F/C eligibility, he does a lot of things well, and he should be utilized as much as any reserve in Nick Nurse's system. 

Reed possesses three things Nurse loves in bigs: athleticism, quickness, and defensive versatility. He could easily rack up between 75 and 90 steals and blocks this season, he will grab boards, and he'll shoot 55-60 percent from the floor while not affecting your free-throw percentage as much as most centers in this ADP range.

Another huge plus for Reed is that Joel Embiid has been one of the more injury-prone star players in the NBA throughout his career. I landed Reed in the 16th round of my hometown league — a move that immediately bumped up my projections in about six categories — but he's going far sooner in most of my expert league mocks.

Dennis Schroder, PG, Raptors (Yahoo rank: 136; ADP: 138)

Schroder takes over point guard duties in Toronto after Fred VanVleet touched down in Rocket Land. Do we expect an alpha point guard who just won the FIBA Championship and took down MVP honors to lead a passive Raptors squad quietly!? How is Schroder falling to the 140-160 range in so many drafts!?

Sure, Schroder lacks efficiency at times and can sometimes be a boon to your turnovers (side note: I never care about turnovers — ever). But the pros definitely outweigh the cons with this guy. He can hit threes, dish out assists, grab some long rebounds, and rack up some steals. If you need complementary scoring and assists in the later stages of a guard build, you could do much worse than Schroder.

Josh Hart, SG/SF, Knicks (Yahoo rank: 119; ADP: 126)

Hart's numbers will never knock your socks off, nor will he ever be the cherry on top of a SportsCenter highlight reel. But he will give you defensive stats, three-point shooting, and probably the best guard-eligible bench rebounding in the NBA. This guy's name is perfect — he improved the culture in the Knicks' locker room the moment he arrived at Madison Square Garden because he has a ton of heart. And we love him in the mid-110s.

Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Warriors (Yahoo rank: 168; ADP: 151)

The No. 7 pick in the 2021 draft, Kuminga is a powerful force who has largely underwhelmed through his first two seasons as a pro. This could be the season he experiences his breakout, though. Golden State delt away high-usage wing Jordan Poole, Draymond Green is starting the season hurt, and the Splash Brothers are not getting any younger.

Kuminga's counting-stat averages have left a lot to be desired so far, but his scoring efficiency ramped up considerably last season. He shot 52.5 percent from the field and 37.0 percent from three, which is great, but he did struggle from the free-throw line (65.2%).

His biggest pluses: He's strong and he's durable on a team that lacks in strength and durability. If he can finally show out early this season and prove to Steve Kerr that he deserves a consistent role within this system, we like Kuminga to outplay his rankings and ADP considerably. 

Other solid deep sleepers we would consider targeting: Saddiq Bey (Rank: 150; ADP: 181) and Jalen Johnson (160/189), SF/PF, Hawks; Patrick Williams, PF, Bulls (132/149); Dereck Lively II, C, Mavericks (537/186); Jeremy Sochan, PF, Spurs (157/202)

Sloan Piva

Sloan Piva Photo

Sloan Piva is a content producer for The Sporting News, primarily focused on betting, fantasy sports, and poker. A lifelong New Englander, Sloan earned his BA and MA in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts and now lives in coastal Rhode Island with his wife and two kids.