Fantasy basketball draft season is in full swing, and it's an important time to think not just about the players who might emerge into stars but also the stars who might take a step back. Of course, we're talking about 'bust' candidates — the players we value much lower than their rankings and average draft positions (ADP). Today we will highlight five such players that we would either fade completely or do our best to avoid where they're being selected.
If you've been following Sporting News' fantasy hoops coverage over the past couple weeks, you know we've got rankings, sleepers, and breakouts covered. We also highlighted six emerging star candidates we believe could follow in the footsteps of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Mikal Bridges. But drafting a successful team in 9-category leagues is as much about fading overvalued players as it is pinpointing sleepers.
Oftentimes, inherent risk lies with the aging or injury-prone players. Maybe a player has changed teams and will likely see a regression in usage and shot volume. Others might have stayed put with an organization that changed the environment around them. So many factors can go into a player's negative regression — it's our job to shine a light on those warning signs and shy you away from the potential problem players before you build your team.
Let's get right into our list of fantasy basketball busts for the 2023-24 NBA season, and help you limit your liability so you can contend for a championship.
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2023 Fantasy Basketball bust candidates
LeBron James, Lakers
Fans of the modern GOAT will bemoan this pick, but we're just being realists here. LeBron's about to turn 39, he's excused from the NBA's player participation policy that prohibits load management, and he has a much better team around him than he's had since the Lakers' Bubble championship. All signs point to Bron not wanting or needing to score as much as he did last season, and we would be shocked if he plays more than 65 games even if he stays healthy.
And let's face it: Bron won't stay healthy for the full season. As it stands, he enters the campaign coming off a foot tendon injury that multiple doctors told him to surgically repair. Instead of going under the knife, though, he underwent load management and returned to finish off the regular season and lead the Lakers to the Western Conference Finals.
Despite that magical run to the WCF, hoops fans and fantasy ballers alike could see that James was clearly not 100 percent. He lacked many of the parts of his game that we had come to expect from him game in and game out: quick first step, powerful burst to the hoop, fast-break intensity, and board-crashing tenacity.
The last thing Los Angeles wants is to push its most valuable player too hard in the regular season and compromise his postseason strength, durability, and stamina. Darvin Ham's squad just proved that it can make a deep playoff run despite winning the seventh-most regular season games (so did Miami), so it's possible Bron plays even fewer games — and definitely plausible for him to have a lower usage rate (his 33.3 USG% in '22-23 was his highest since '09-10).
Anthony Davis missing a month of action last winter didn't help matters for LeBron. He played over 1,000 minutes across 27 games in December and January, averaging out to 37.1 MPG. That kind of run will take a toll on any 38-year-old's body, even Benjamin Buckets.
With a healthy AD and a more reliable supporting cast around him this season, we highly doubt Bron will need to go superhuman again to keep L.A. in the play-in mix. And with an inevitable reduction in scoring and rebounding — coupled with his declining three-point shooting, perennially-underwhelming free-throw stroke, and minimal defense — the time has come to fade the GOAT. Let him be somebody else's early-round regret.
Nikola Vučević, Bulls
Vucevic had a spectacular 2022 season for a Bulls team that mounted a very unspectacular 40-42 campaign. He played all 82 games and logged 33.5 minutes per game, and he maintained staggering efficiency (52/35/84) while putting up 17.4 points and 11 boards per game. Sounds like a surefire third-rounder, right? Sure, if he's able to repeat it.
Don't draft based on last year's results, especially when you're talking about a big man who just turned 33 and maxes out at 0.7 steals/0.7 blocks playing 34 minutes a night. One major injury and Vučević has turned into a bust at his ADP in the 30s. A 10-game drop — or a slight step back from any of his shooting metrics — and you're lucky to get sixth-round contributions from him.
Vooch has also become stubbornly obsessed with taking three-point shots. In the 32 games he played between February and the end of the season, he took 117 triples and only made 36 of them (30.8%). Taking three to four treys per game and clanging 70 percent of them not only dings his field-goal percentage — it negatively affects his rebounding and assist numbers.
We love this guy — don't get us wrong — how often can you find a guy who shoots so well from the line and grabs 11 boards per game? But he has never been a superb fit in Chicago, he's coming off his lowest usage rate since 2013-14, and he's getting older and slower in a position filled with young, athletic beasts. I'll still rejoice when I land him in the 50s, but in the 20s and 30s where I've seen him go a lot, he's a bust.
Marcus Smart, Grizzlies
Smart, who still bleeds Celtics green, must navigate his first NBA season outside of Boston. His new go-to scorer, Ja Morant, will be suspended for the first 25 games of the season. And his best attributes, defensive and hustle stats, already started to taper off last season. He won Defensive Player of the Year two seasons ago — he wasn't the third-best defender on the Celtics last year.
Smart turns 30 in March, and we're worried he will struggle to find his identity in an extremely young and often-immature Grizzlies team. Will the squad around him respond well to his intensity? Will he jack up three-point bricks and hinder the flow of Taylor Jenkins' offense? How far will his assist numbers fall now that he's playing with Desmond Bane and (eventually) Ja Morant? Who will make Memphis's shots during Morant's suspension, and while Bane is doubled or on the bench?
There's so many question marks and too few answers. We're passing on the former heart and soul of Celtics Nation. He left his heart — and fantasy relevance — in Boston. People have been picking him in the eighth round, for whatever reason. We're not touching him before the 110s — and even then, we're passing on high-ceiling players for a dude with a low fantasy floor.
Jerami Grant, Blazers
Grant has been getting selected in the low 70s of drafts, with people clearly still clinging to the memory of his one strong season as Detroit's go-to scorer. Newsflash, people: Jerami's in Portland now, and he's likely going to be Chauncey Billups' fourth scoring option behind dynamic rookie Scoot Henderson, stud shooter Anfernee Simons, and prized big-man acquisition DeAndre Ayton. Hell, even Malcolm Brogdon will likely eat into his per-minute usage.
He'll still take plenty of shots, but that's not always a good thing. Grant is basically Tobias Harris with more points per game but a lower shooting percentage. The sixth and seventh rounds should be reserved for upside players, not guys who have already left their prime in the rearview mirror like Tobey Maguire in bat country. If you think Grant suddenly launches into a strong one-on-one scorer just because Damian Lillard's gone, you've got another thing coming.
Derrick White, Celtics
Another player affected by the recent blockbuster trades, DWhite went from Boston's starting point guard when Marcus Smart got dealt to possibly the Celtics' sixth man once Brad Stevens landed Jrue Holiday. There's little to no doubt White will be good, we just don't think he's going to be quite as good as last year with Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis getting added to the mix.
We still like DWhite's passing vision and unbelievable block contributions from the guard spot, but we're not willing to reach too far when we know he's probably the sixth-best statistical contributor on his team. We're seeing him go at pick No. 75 in some drafts — don't even think about grabbing this guy until the 110s.
