It’s all to play for in an enthralling Ashes series after England pegged Australia back to 2-1 with a three-wicket win at Headingley in the third Test.
As in Australia’s two-wicket triumph at Edgbaston and 43-run win at Lord’s, a closely contested game went down to the wire before returning pace bowlers Chris Woakes and Mark Wood saw England home.
The teams will rest up and hope to mend a few weary bodies before reconvening in Manchester for the Old Trafford Test on July 19.
So where will this Ashes series be won and lost with two Tests to play? Is the momentum suddenly and irresistibly with England or are Australia still on course to win away from home against their old enemy for the first time since 2001?
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Will England drop Jonny Bairstow for Ben Foakes?
England announced an unchanged squad for the fourth Test. Leaving Ben Foakes in the wings feels like a mistake.
While enjoying the warm afterglow of their Leeds triumph, England should acknowledge that one of Yorkshire’s favourite cricketing sons is struggling. Jonny Bairstow has been a confidence player throughout his career and those reserves were at a particularly low ebb as he made a scant contribution to the hosts' run chase.
Mitchell Starc has always had Bairstow’s number and dismissed him for the 11th time in Tests as he played on to a full delivery on the fourth afternoon. The England wicketkeeper scored a run-a-ball 78 on the first day of the series. Since donning the gloves and shelling numerous chances, his form in both of his specialist disciplines has deteriorated.
It doesn’t help matters that Foakes is widely regarded as one of the finest keepers in world cricket. Bairstow’s super-charged batting last year that lit the Bazball fuse is a standard Foakes is unlikely to reach. However, it is hard to see him as any sort of a downgrade on the 2023 version of Bairstow the batter. Foakes averages 32.2 and has a couple of Test centuries to his name, the most recent being 113 not out against South Africa at Old Trafford last year.
Throw in his exceptional glove work that would offer potentially greater rewards to England’s attacking bowling plans and inject belief into a haphazard slip cordon then the arguments for Bairstow beyond loyalty and unity fall apart quite quickly.
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Can Mark Wood play back-to-back Tests?
Okay, we might be getting ahead of ourselves here. The Oval could yet be a dead rubber. But England were a team transformed as Wood tore in from the Kirkstall Lane End and hit speeds in excess of 95 mph, along with one or two tenderised Australian bodies.
Ben Stokes managed his good mate and prized bowling asset very well, sticking to short, sharp spells of hellfire en route a first-innings 5/34 and 7/100 in the match. England will need to retain a four-man pace attack, plus Moeen Ali for an Old Trafford deck that usually takes spin. Any overs Stokes can eek out of a frame seemingly held together by painkillers, Red Bull and unshakable belief will be a bonus.
Wood played his first Test in May, 2015. Last week in Leeds was his 29th and first since last December. The England backroom team have a huge role to play over the final days of July because Stokes’ side is an entirely different proposition with Wood in it. Keeping him in it is the big challenge.
"I will speak to the physio, but I imagine I will bowl once or twice, a couple of gym sessions, maybe some running, but it won't be too drastic," Wood said after his man-of-the-match heroics, as quoted by ESPNcricinfo.
"I have to let the body recover. It's my first game in a very, very long time, especially in Test cricket. Off the back of bowling four overs, and I didn't do too much of that either. I will let the body recover, get myself in a good space, let the wounds recover, and get myself up for the next one."
Elsewhere, England’s pace attack looks in pretty good shape. Stuart Broad is the leading wicket-taker in the series. He doesn’t just get David Warner out, folks. Woakes bowled superbly on his first appearance in the longest format since March 2022 and is now surely a lock for Manchester. That leaves one place up for grabs, with Ollie Robinson’s back spasm in Leeds an unfortunate reminder of a fitness record that has not always been up to the elite standard.
Stokes spoke about restoring England’s all-time leading wicket-taker James Anderson to bowl from the James Anderson end on his home ground. It could be a beautiful last Ashes hurrah for an all-time great. Alternatively, the temptation to pair Wood with another genuinely fast bowler in Josh Tongue on what is traditionally the quickest Test pitch in England must be considerable.
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Does Pat Cummins trust Todd Murphy?
Todd Murphy impressed on his maiden Test tour of India. Getting out Virat Kohli four times is a feather in anyone’s cap. However, Nathan Lyon’s injury gives him the very different role of being the sole frontline spinner. No one knew how he would deal with that before Headingley. We still don’t.
After a few tidy if unambitious overs — Murphy was firing his off-spinners through at around 60 mph — Stokes took him downtown as part of his latest all-or-nothing onslaught. During the run chase, skipper Pat Cummins gave him two overs. It’s impossible to imagine Lyon being so sparsely used in the same situation, even taking into account how conditions helped pace bowling in Leeds.
"Mainly just conditions-based," Cummins said of the 22-year-old's lack of activity. "It didn't quite spin as much as we thought it would and [the team] probably didn't bowl as many overs as we thought we would as well. We bowled under 60 both innings. I would have liked to get Toddy into the game a bit more. But I'm sure next week in Manchester will be a bit more spin friendly."
Manchester will be more spin friendly and, as such, Cummins will have to be more Murphy friendly. Old Trafford and the Oval feel should be the playing surfaces best suited to Australia. They haven’t lost in Manchester since 1981. However, if Murphy can’t handle a central role, the whole equation changes. Think of how well Stuart McGill bowled in tandem with Shane Warne, how effective Monty Panesar could be in the same team as Graeme Swann.
Being the solo spinner with the pressure of winning a Test on your shoulders alone is a different gig. We’re about to find out whether Murphy is up to the challenge.
Warner, Smith and Labuschange give Aussies a top-order headache
Broad’s ongoing torture of Warner — now 17 dismissals and counting — has led to discussion about Mitchell Marsh potentially opening at Old Trafford. As impressive as his run-a-ball 118 was in Leeds, not to mention his recent stint as an ODI opener, the elevation from self-deprecating tourist to the man facing down the new ball would be off the chain even for this mildly unhinged series.
Regardless of what goes on at the top of the order, Australia need more from Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith in the engine room.
Labuschange came into the series as the No. 1 Test batter in the world but has not passed 50. There have been a number of starts but he appears to be fighting a losing battle with himself and his idiosyncratic technique. He got 67 at Old Trafford four years ago, when Smith filled his boot to the tune of a double hundred.
The former captain’s customary Lord’s ton showed he’s not in the worst touch but in this strange and thrilling Ashes, Smith and Labushagne will arrive in Manchester with fewer runs and a lower series average than much-maligned England opener Zak Crawley. If that remains the state of play, there’s a strong chance Australia will be flying home having relinquished the urn.
